Why? Primarily because five senators are not running to retain their seat, including Chris Dodd (D, CT), Ted Kaufman (D, DE), Sam Brownback (R, KS), Jim Bunning (R, KY), and George Voinovich (R, OH). Also, Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R, AK) lost in the primaries to fellow Republican Jim Miller. Murkowski is running as a write-in candidate but is unlikely to beat Miller and must also compete for votes with underdog Democrat Scott McAdams. There are limited prospects for Catholics to pick up other seats.
As shown below, in recent years representation has generally been proportional with the percentage of senators who self-identify as Catholic being quite consistent with the percentage of the U.S. voting eligible population that self-identifies as Catholic. Note that the Catholic electorate percentages are subject to fluctuations due to sampling margin of error for the American National Election Study (there were no data collected in 2006). Also note there were 26 Catholic Senators until Sen. Edward Kennedy (D) passed away and his replacement, Catholic Sen. Paul Kirk (D) did not run in a special election that was won by non-Catholic Scott Brown (R) over Catholic Democrat Martha Coakley.
No matter what the votes of Catholics are in November, some seats cannot be secured. Sen. Brownback’s Kansas seat and Sen. Voinovich’s Ohio seat are assured to be lost as none of the major candidates running are Catholic. As mentioned above, polling estimates indicate Sen. Murkowski is unlikely to win in her write-in campaign (which is a challenging endeavor as her name will not appear on the ballot). In Connecticut, Sen. Dodd’s seat may also be lost as Catholic candidate Linda McMahon (R) is trailing Richard Blumenthal (D). However, the gap between these candidates has been narrowing and this may be the best chance for a come from behind victory. About 38% of adults in Connecticut self-identify their religion as Catholic.
In Delaware, Sen. Kaufman’s seat may be lost as Christine O'Donnell (R) is trailing Chris Coons (D). O’Donnell, who was raised Catholic has a complex religious history (1, 2) and at the time of this entry, the term “Catholic” only appears on her campaign website in reference to the names of Catholic organizations that have endorsed her. Press stories of her campaign commonly reference her religion as Catholic.
In Florida, George LeMieux’s seat is likely to remain held by a Catholic if Marco Rubio (R) can continue to hold off Kendrick Meek (D) and Charlie Crist (I) as the polls indicate he is likely to do. About 20% of adults in Florida self-identify their religion as Catholic.
In five contests, a hold on a seat is either a lock or very likely. Incumbent Sen. David Vitter (R) and his challenger Charlie Melancon (D) are both Catholic (Vitter leads). In New York, incumbent Catholic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) is leading Joe DioGuardi (R) who is also Catholic. In Washington, Catholic Sen. Patty Murray (D) is running just slightly ahead of fellow Catholic Dino Rossi (R). Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D, MD) and Sen. Patrick Leahy (D, VT) have safe leads over non-Catholic challengers in their states and are expected to win reelection.
There is also a lock for a Catholic gain in the race to replace Sen. Arlen Specter (D) of Pennsylvania. Both Pat Toomey (R) and Joe Sestak (D) self-identify as Catholic. Toomey is currently leading in the polls.
There are two other seats where a Catholic gain is possible. In West Virginia, Catholic candidate Joe Manchin (D) is leading John Raese (R, Presbyterian). However, the race is very close and Raese is trending up in the polls. About 6% of adults in West Virginia self-identify their religion as Catholic. In Indiana, Catholic candidate Brad Ellsworth (D) has consistently trailed Dan Coats (R, Presbyterian) in the polls. About 16% of adults in Indiana self-identify their religion as Catholic.
[Edit/Recount... In New Hampshire, Catholic candidate Kelly Ayotte (R) was leading Paul Hodes (D) at the time of this post as was Catholic John Hoeven (R) leading strongly over Tracy Potter (D-NPL) in North Dakota.]
The following ten Catholic Senate Democrats are not up for election in 2010: Mark Begich (AK), Maria Cantwell (WA), Robert Casey (PA), Richard Durbin (IL), Tom Harkin (IA), John Kerry (MA), Mary Landrieu (LA), Claire McCaskill (MO), Bob Mendez (NJ), and Jack Reed (RI). On the Republican side, three Catholic senators are not facing reelection and will continue to serve in the 112th Congress: Susan Collins (ME), Mike Johanns (NE), and Jim Risch (ID).
As U.S. Vice President and therefore President of the Senate, Joe Biden, a Catholic Democrat would be called upon to break any tie vote in the Senate. Two-thirds of the Supreme Court (six of nine justices; Samuel Alito, Anthony Kennedy, John Roberts, Antonin Scalia, Sonia Sotomayor, and Clarence Thomas) and 31% of House members are Catholic.
