Nineteen Sixty-four is a research blog for the Center for Applied Research in the Apostolate (CARA) at Georgetown University edited by Mark M. Gray. CARA is a non-profit research center that conducts social scientific studies about the Catholic Church. Founded in 1964, CARA has three major dimensions to its mission: to increase the Catholic Church's self understanding; to serve the applied research needs of Church decision-makers; and to advance scholarly research on religion, particularly Catholicism. Follow CARA on Twitter at: caracatholic.

8.26.2011

Blame Popestock?


Apparently Madrid will profit from World Youth Day. The Chamber of Commerce in Spain’s capital is estimating Catholic visitors brought in 160 million euros (or about $230 million) to the city. I’ve read this in Spanish newspapers but have yet to see it in the American press. Someone who read the Aug. 15 New York Times story “Catholic Clergy Protest Pope’s Visit, and Its Price Tag” (in the A section, page 5; by Suzanne Daley) will likely be surprised. The Rev. Eubilio Rodríguez is the featured source of the story (including his photo, arms crossed, looking angrily into the camera):

“How, he asks, can the Roman Catholic Church be getting ready for a lavish $72 million celebration in this city — some of it paid for with tax dollars — when Spain is in the midst of an austerity drive, the unemployment rate for young people is 40 percent and his parishioners are losing their homes to foreclosure every day?

‘It is scandalous, the price,’ he said. ‘It is shameful. It discredits the church.’”


The story did not include any quotes or references from an independent economist or analyst who might support (or deny) Father Rodríguez’s claims regarding this “lavish” event (he would presumably disregard this because the story informs us that he believes “costs are always fuzzy”). The story does note (in the eighth paragraph) that organizers clarified that the costs are pre-paid by those registered for WYD and corporate sponsors but then adds critics are calling the claims ridiculous. WYD was expected to impact the state only in terms of its costs for extra police and security (in part due to the threat of protests about the cost of the event), tax write-offs for corporate sponsors covering costs, and reductions in bus and train fares. At the same time, all of these costs were expected to be significantly outweighed by the financial gains brought by WYD visitors who were buying local goods and services, taking bus and train trips that otherwise would never have occurred. 

The New York Times followed this story with another a few days later entitled, “Protests Greet Visiting Pope as Austerity Grips Spain” (in the A section, page 8; by Raphael Minder):

Even before the pope’s arrival, the visit was overshadowed by violent clashes in Madrid late Wednesday between the police and protesters furious over its cost to Spain, which they contended was excessive at a time when many Spaniards are scraping by.” 

Yet, the most important part of this story, and perhaps in all of the New York Times coverage of WYD, appears much later—in the very last sentence of the last paragraph, which reads:

“On Wednesday, José Blanco, spokesman for the government and one of Mr. Zapatero’s most senior ministers, added his support, saying that the government’s calculations showed that the event would yield a financial benefit for the Spanish economy.”

This does not seem to fit with the economic analysis of Father Rodríguez that was so prominently featured in the New York Times on August 15. How did this come to be buried in the last line of a follow-up story? I think I understand the discrepency better after reading the comments of Erik Wemple, of The Washington Post, who commented on Archbishop Charles Chaput’s criticism of the New York Times and other national media outlets. In Madrid, Chaput said:

“These are secular operations focused on making a profit. They have very little sympathy for the Catholic faith, and quite a lot of aggressive skepticism toward any religious community that claims to preach and teach God’s truth.”

Wemple’s response:

Check, check and check. Chaput’s description is something that editors at the New York Times, Newsweek, CNN and MSNBC would support, if not frame and post as a mission statement. News organizations should have little sympathy for any entity as powerful as the Catholic Church. And are you really going to pound the media for practicing aggressive skepticism?”

Wait, what? These news organizations have sympathy towards some institutions (and contempt for others) based on how “powerful” they are? First, news organizations should report the news… reality is what matters and anything else likely represents bias. Second, did he say powerful? As a survey researcher I don’t often see the “power” of the Church in the attitudes or behaviors of American Catholics. If the bishops have some great command over the U.S. Catholic masses (or even its most prominent Catholic politicians) the evidence is weak. Finally, if the New York Times was practicing “aggressive skepticism,” the claims made by Father Rodríguez could have used a heavy dose of this medicine.

Another story featuring criticism of the Church by priests appeared on July 22 in the Times entitled, “In 3 Countries, Challenging the Vatican on Female Priests” (in the A section, page 1; by Laurie Goodstein). At first I thought this might be another of the infamous New York Times “trend” stories (more on this at Slate) where a reporter connects relatively obscure and separate events creating a narrative of the new realities facing us that we just haven’t noticed yet (the New York Times does not own a monopoly on this type of story but it is an industry leader. These are the types of stories that make statisticians cry). Examples include the emerging “realities” that more parents are sending their children to summer camp on private airplanes, growing numbers are also building playhouses for $100,000s, book clubs and Tupperware parties are being replaced by pole dancing, having a gut is now cool, women are all starting to dress like Elaine from Seinfeld, more and more single men love cats, alleged criminals are often Yankee fans, Christians are turning to mixed martial arts, and girls tournament sports are helping the economy.

Wait let me read that last one again. If you get hundreds of young people in one location they actually help the economy? I wonder what would happen if you had more than a million young visitors in one city?... Back to the July story… It turns out the reporter wasn’t connecting any dots at all. It wasn’t a New York Times trend story. It was heavily based on dots already connected in a press release. And then it hit me. Sympathies. Searching the New York Times database one finds prominent quotes (in lede paragraphs) from a small set of Church critics that get repeated coverage. I am by no means arguing that these voices do not deserve to be in the New York Times (I was once a reporter myself and deplore any notion of censorship or quieting dissent in the press), but it is unusual how these critics (regardless of the factual nature of their claims) seem to now be driving the coverage of the New York Times and in some cases almost writing its headlines. Criticism is needed when it has a basis in fact. Some of the criticism of the Church appearing in the New York Times appears to have a tenuous relationship with reality (e.g. Father Rodríguez) and good reporters should weed this out by checking data, conferring with experts, and simply applying some common sense. And by no means am I arguing Church leaders should be driving the coverage of the New York Times either! What should be? Facts, reality...

I believe part of the heavy reliance on critics is related to the New York Times devotion to the 1990s journalism school ethos of how to be fair and unbiased. Reality doesn’t matter (from a postmodern point of view it probably doesn’t even exist) and as long as you get quotes from both sides (all stories have two sides; bury the quote from the point of view you personally like less and put the one you favor in the headline and lede) you are reporting in a balanced manner.

I fully understand those who are critical of the Church for the sex abuse crisis and how it handled these crimes. Count me as a critic on this issue as well and I fully expect this topic will continue to be in the news for years where critics voices should be prominent. But I understand that Catholicism is much more than this crisis. There are more than 1 billion Catholics in this world and to them their faith is many things. Many good things and some bad. Catholics are painfully aware of the bad and are ashamed and angered by news of clergy sex abuse. But most are not giving up on their Church, their faith. More than 1 million young Catholics in Madrid made that statement last week as clearly as ever. That was news but it just didn’t make it in the headlines (or even the last paragraph!), which instead were all about WYD “price tags.” Will there be headlines now about the profits? Does someone need to send a press release on this?

The New York Times has claimed that it has no bias against the Catholic Church (1, 2). But I believe recent stories have made transparent some contempt for the Church. When I read about other religious faiths in the New York Times I dont see the coverage of those institutions to be driven by their critics. I dont see the adversarial point vs. counter-point approach that appears in almost any story the New York Times does about Catholicism. In the past, even when I found fault with their reporting, I have still defended the New York Times as mostly just using the healthy journalistic skepticism that Wemple highlights (which is good when applied to all sources). Yet, given the New York Times’ coverage of WYD and other recent stories, I am beginning to think Archbishop Chaput made some valid points in his comments.

Above photo courtesy of adKinn at Flickr Creative Commons.

8.24.2011

Research Notes...

Numbers of New Catholics Continue to Fall
In a previous post, we noted that infant baptisms have been declining year-to-year (as reported in The Official Catholic Directory; where the publication year represents totals for the year prior, e.g., the 2011 edition includes totals for 2010). We've also noted these are generally moving in step with the overall fertility rate, which has also been falling (more so since the recession in 2008). In each of the past three years the number of people entering the faith (of any age) has dropped below 1 million. Since 1947, during only one other period, from 1973 to 1979, did the annual number of new U.S. Catholics number less than 1 million.


Generally, the numbers entering the Catholic Church are nearly sufficient to keep up with the number of Catholics who pass away each year (of course each year some leave the faith, some come back after already having left, and additions occur from immigration of Catholics from other countries as well). However, this may not always be the case if current trends continue. Not only are infant baptisms in decline so are entries into the faith among children, teens, and adults. These had been steadily increasing from 1997 to 2000 and reached a historic peak of 172,581 in 2000. Then something happened...


In just one year, from 2000 to 2001, the number of these non-infant entries into the Church fell by more than 20,000 (down 12.6%). This drop predates the emergence of news of clergy sex abuse cases. In fact the number of entries into the Church increased from 2001 to 2002 when these stories emerged in the media. From 2002 the number of new non-infant entries stabilized until 2006 and 2007 where another steep decline occurred. There were more than 28,000 fewer non-infant entries into the Church in 2007 than in 2005 (down 19.2%). Since then, the decline has flattened out a bit but still continues through to the numbers for 2010. 

I am not sure how to explain the trends in the figures above in terms of causal events. But the shifts are significant and beyond random fluctuations (the average year-to-year change in non-infant entries since 1944 has been 1.0%).

Catholic and Protestant Parish Ministry Wages are Comparable
A companion piece to the CARA research released in the Emerging Models project's The Changing Face of U.S. Catholic Parishes is the National Association of Church Personnel Administrators report, Pay & Benefits Survey of Catholic Parishes, 2011 Edition using the same Emerging Models survey data. One of many interesting findings is how similar wages and salaries are for Catholic parish ministers and those working in similar capacities in Protestant churches in the United States.


The Protestant data used by NACPA are from Protestant: 2010 Church Staff Compensation Survey (Christianity Today International). The full NACPA report includes Catholic ministry pay data for 60 different parish ministry positions by region, parish budget, size of parish offertory, parish staff size, number of registered families at parishes, and by parish Mass attendance. The report can be purchased from the NACPA website.

Online Interest in All Things Catholic
Recently we wrote a post on an indicator of possible declining interest in Catholicism online. We now provide at the bottom of this blog, as well as on CARA's Frequently Requested Statistics, active tracking of U.S. Google search volumes for anything including the word Catholic. These can be compared to search volumes for religious and spiritual content in general. The figure automatically updates with new data. To see an expanded report just follow the "View full report in Google Insights for Search" link.

8.17.2011

Catholicism in Spain

 

All eyes are on Madrid with World Youth Day underway. Spain is often lumped in with other European countries when people talk of the secularization and decline of Catholicism on the continent. Yet, each country really has its own story and Spain, much like Italy and Ireland, has not seen much of a loss in terms of identity and affiliation in the aggregate compared to other areas of Europe. However, it has seen a steeper drop in Mass attendance than both Italy and Ireland.

The good news? There are likely more Catholics in Spain today than ever. The figure below is based on census estimates and respondents’ self-identification of their religion and church attendance from the World Values Survey. It applies only to the adult population (age 18 and older). In 1981, there were an estimated 25.8 million Catholic adults in Spain and this had grown to 29.8 million in 2007 (most recent data available). 

However, during this same span of time (the bad news) the percentage of all adults self-identifying as Catholic and reporting that they attend Mass at least once a week, every week dropped from 41% to 15% (11.6 million to 5.7 million adults attending every week). In any given week 6.7 million adult Catholics are estimated to attend Mass at least once. This is equivalent to about 300 attenders per parish.


Growth of the adult Catholic population has not kept up with the overall adult population growth in Spain (+15.3% for Catholics compared to +29.7% for the population overall). However, this is not primarily because many people have stopped raising their children Catholic nor is it because some huge number of adults have left the faith. More important has been the crash in fertility in Spain (people having too few children to raise Catholic or not). Immigration has been essential for Spain to maintain its population growth. Whereas in the United States this has often led to Catholic population growth, this does not often occur in many areas of Europe. Instead, immigration there is often coming from non-Catholic countries. As the numbers of immigrants have grown in Spain, the Catholic population has become a smaller component of the overall population.

In 1964, the Spanish fertility rate was well above replacement at 3.01 (the replacement rate is an average of 2.1 births per woman—enough to replace both parents). This reached a low of just 1.15 in the mid-1990s before increasing slightly to 1.4 now. This increase is in part a result of a larger population of immigrants from developing countries who tend to have higher fertility rates. For most of the post-World War II era Spain did not have a significant inflow of immigration. That all changed in the mid-1990s with the creation of the European Union and the movement of economic activity to areas of Europe with lower labor costs. There were only about 500,000 foreign-born residents of Spain in the mid-1990s. This has increased to 5.7 million in more recent estimates. The largest groups of immigrants are from Morocco, Romania, and the United Kingdom. There are also segments of this immigration that likely bolster Spain's Catholic numbers coming from Ecuador, Colombia, and Bolivia.

The fastest growing religious group in Spain is the Nones—those lacking any religious affiliation (although they may still have religious or spiritual beliefs). Among adults, this group has expanded by 174% since 1981 and in 2007 represented more than 7 million adults residing in the country. That means adult Nones are similar in number to all adult Catholics attending Mass in an average week.

The Vatican estimates that there are 42.5 million Catholics in Spain of all ages as of 2009 (source: Annuarium Statisticum Ecclesiae, 2009). This would represent 92.5% of the total population. The World Values Survey estimated a slightly lower Catholic affiliation percentage of 82.3% among adults in 2007. According to Vatican estimates, there are an estimated 1,873 Catholics in Spain for each parish—significantly lower than the 3,834 Catholics per parish estimated for the United States. Although Spain is only 1/19th the size of the U.S., it has 4,520 more parishes. 

Above photo courtesy of Catholic Westminster at Flickr Creative Commons.

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