Parish Drive By

As a survey researcher often working on national polls of self-identified Catholics, I frequently hear the remark, "But what about the Catholics in the pews?" Finally, I can say we've got a poll specifically for that as well.

CARA and the Emerging Models of Pastoral Leadership have been conducting a major study for the last two years that aims to get the clearest portrait possible of what is going on in American parishes. The final piece of this project is a series of surveys—still in progress—of parishioners, in-pew during Mass, in a random sample of U.S. parishes (...CARA has also conducted similar surveys in many self-selected parishes and dioceses that have come to us for assistance). Currently, the Emerging Models data includes nearly 11,500 responses from Catholics who took a survey at Mass (...CARA's sample from parishes and dioceses commissioning surveys includes more than 370,000 respondents). Tomorrow, CARA researcher Melissa Cidade will give anyone interested a sneak peak (go here to sign up for the webinar) at what Catholics in the pews have been saying in the Emerging Models project parishes.

One of the most surprising aspects of the results so far has been how positive Mass attending Catholics are in their evaluations of their parish (...yet there are also many interesting sub-group differences here as well). I always remind people that many respondents in these surveys have chosen to be a part of the parish they are evaluating. One way we know this is that 31% of parishioners report that they are not attending the parish closest to their home—they may even drive right by another parish on their way to Mass. Some Catholics are clearly going "shopping" and finding parishes where they feel they fit in well or where they feel their needs are best met. Of course with a few exceptions parishes are territorial (Can. 518; Can. 100-107) but there are clearly unofficial "market forces" at work as well and these tendencies may be gaining strength. 

The figure below shows the breakdown for the question "Do you currently live closer to another parish?" by generation. Recall, all respondents are taking this survey during Mass at the parish they attend (we also ask them if this parish is their primary place of worship. In CARA's commissioned surveys we also ask for ZIP codes). A "yes" response to this question provides an estimate for how many "drive by" Catholics there are. Nearly four in ten Mass attending adults of the Millennial Generation (born 1982 or later) is not attending their local parish (to be fair, in some cases, the closest parish may not be their territorial parish given the structure of boundaries). A third of Post-Vatican II Mass attenders (born 1961 to 1981) responds similarly. Even more than one in four Pre-Vatican II Mass attending Catholics (born before 1943) is potentially passing by a parish to attend another.

In an era where more parishes are closing than opening, these market forces may be putting pressure on some parish leaders. The phenomenon may also be eroding some of the neighborhood culture of Catholic parish communities (in CARA's commissioned in-pew surveys we have discovered parishes that are drawing Mass attenders from other dioceses—most often in the Northeast). At the same time the survey data seem to indicate that this mobility may also make for happy parishioners.

For more information about Emerging Models see the report for the first phase of CARA's research released last year entitled, "The Changing Face of U.S. Catholic Parishes" (a single informant survey conducted with 846 randomly selected parishes, margin of sampling error of ±3.3 percentage points, describing the parish and its staff.). We are about to release a report entitled "Perspectives From Parish Leaders: U.S. Parish Life and Ministry" (here is the recorded webinar... stay tuned for the full-report) which is based on a survey of 532 parish leaders (staff, finance and pastoral councils, and other leaders) in 246 parishes from the first phase (margin of sampling error of ±4.2 percentage points).

Above photo courtesy of Christopher Lane Photography at Flickr Creative Commons.

Catholic Summer

It is almost Memorial Day, that special time when Americans pause to honor soldiers who died in military service. It is also traditionally the long weekend that represents an unofficial start of the summer. Many will visit newly opened community pools and spark up the barbecue for the first time of the year.

I often tell my "Introduction to the Social Sciences" students you can study virtually anything! Even Memorial Day. Need to know how many Catholics have served in the military or reserves (formerly or on current active duty)? Simple. There’s a poll for that. More than 8.5 million self-identified Catholics in the United States or currently serving overseas report that they are or were in the military or reserves at some point in their life. Overall, 47% of self-identified Catholics have either served themselves or have a close family member or other relative who has served in the military.

On to something a bit more lighthearted... What do Catholics think about summer? They love it. Like those of other faiths, Catholics are most likely to pick (about half or more) summer as the season where most of their best memories reside. Only Evangelical Protestants stand out from the crowd with disproportionate numbers choosing spring and fall. Catholics are remarkable in that fewer than one in ten cite autumn as a favorite (i.e., my personal choice… What’s not to like about football, falling leaves, All Hallows Eve, new school supplies, and October Mass attendance headcounts?).

So what’s on the menu this weekend? Beef. If you are dining with Catholics expect steaks, hamburgers, or beef ribs. This is another area where Catholics stand out among the faith crowd. No other group loves beef this much with the Nones—those without a religious affiliation—shunning it the most at a paltry 30% preference rate. If you are planning on dining with Evangelicals this weekend expect to eat chicken (…their most preferred pick at 37%).

What will Catholics do after resting the required one hour after lunch or supper to prevent cramping? They’ll likely swim (…nearly four in ten). One in four will walk and nearly one in five will garden. Biking and reading may consume some of the time. Expect to see Mainline Protestants and Nones at the pool as they are even more enthusiastic about swimming (44% and 47%, respectively). Nones may be the most likely to wear inappropriate swimwear (I don’t have any polling data for this… it’s just a hypothesis). Watch out for Evangelicals on the bike paths (12% preference rate). If you need to borrow some gardening supplies talk to those affiliated with a non-Christian faith (22% prefer gardening). 

In the same survey, a majority of people who say they go to the beach in each faith group report that they "always" wear sunscreen (53% of Catholics). The only exception here is with those affiliated with a non-Christian faith. Only 47% of this group indicates consistent sunscreen use. So on your way back from swimming at the beach or a pool if you happen to run into a neighbor of a non-Christian faith that is out gardening offer them some sunscreen. Everyone hates skin cancer.

We should see nearly four in ten Catholics attending Mass on Pentecost Sunday. With many traveling this weekend they may need MassTimes to find a parish. So expect to see some out-of-towners in the pews if you live in a resort area.

Have a good weekend!

Above photo courtesy of Gepat at Flickr Creative Commons.  

A Micro-scoping View of U.S. Catholic Populations

With the recent release of ASARB data on the size of U.S. religious group memberships and our previous post on this topic I began to think about the multiple ways in which one could think about the "number of Catholics." I am preparing for a presentation next week for an Ave Maria Press webinar (you can sign up here) on the Emerging Models of Pastoral Leadership project. We are looking at a very specific sub-group of Catholics—parish leaders. We define this in the project as all of those on staff, volunteers, council members, and highly active parishioners. The presentation will include results from a national survey of parish leaders regarding their evaluations of their parish and their ministries, as well as their descriptions of how they were called to ministry.

Among parish leaders is a specific group of interest who are defined as Lay Ecclesial Ministers (LEMs). A LEM within a parish is someone with professional training working or volunteering in a ministry at least part-time. How can we understand the size of this group relative to the total Catholic population? How about some charts...

First, let me note these estimates are generated for 2010 and are derived from multiple data sources including CARA (1, 2, 3) and Pew (1, 2). The bars are like a Russian doll with each lower bar generally being a subset of those above it (don't add the bars together!). The largest bar on the chart is the total number of people in the U.S. baptized and raised Catholic. This includes nearly 97 million people in the country today (...and remember, because of immigration some of these individuals were baptized in other countries). Of course some of these individuals no longer self-identify as Catholic and either have no religion or are affiliated with some other faith (although technically they remain baptized Catholic and could return to the Church). Of these 97 million people, nearly 75 million continue to self-identify as Catholic (approximately 24% of the U.S. population).

The next group of bars covers those who are parish-connected. The number for individuals registered with a parish is based on a CARA survey of pastors in U.S. parishes for the Emerging Models project. At 58.3 million this is nearly identical to the ASARB estimate of 58.9 million Catholics adherents, which is "roughly equivalent to those who are known in some way to each parish or mission" (the difference between these counts and what dioceses report in The Official Catholic Directory, 65.4 million, is the adjustment some are making for active Catholics who are not registered. More than 6,500 U.S. parishes indicate they serve a significant number of non-registered parishioners. Most pastors indicate these parishioners are recent immigrants, Hispanics, and young adults). Some 50.6 million Catholics attended Mass at Christmas or Easter in 2010 (...some are not registered with a parish and many in this group overall attended Mass regularly as you will see below).

For those readers interested in New Evangelization you now know the approximate size of three important populations. First, there are the 22.5 million people who were baptized and raised Catholic who no longer self-identify as Catholic. Second, there are the 16.2 million people who self-identify as Catholic but who are not in a household that is registered with a parish (although technically there is no requirement to register with a parish... But it is helpful!). Finally some 23.8 million self-identified Catholics (many not registered with a parish) who do not attend Mass even at Christmas or Easter.

From here on Catholics who are parish-connected and who attend Mass with some regularity come into full view. Some 36.5 million Catholics attend Mass at least once a month (i.e., this total includes those who attend more frequently) and 32.8 million are in a household that gives regularly to a parish offertory collection. We must drill down further to specifically focus only on the 17.9 million Catholic weekly Mass attenders (i.e., those attending every week. This is different from the number of Catholics attending in any given week. This total is not shown on the graph and includes approximately 23.1 million individuals on a typical weekend).

Now down to the question of parish leadership—the number of Catholics who say they are "very involved" with parish life other than attending Mass. This totals just under 3 million or about 168 people per parish in the U.S. (there were 17,782 U.S. parishes in 2010). To give you a better idea of all the populations discussed above per parish see the graph below.

And finally to the group I am currently focusing on in my research, the 50,000 lay Catholics involved in parish ministry (either paid or volunteer... there are an additional 50,0000 in non-ministry parish staff positions) and of these nearly 38,000 are LEMs. Part of the goal of the Emerging Models project is to understand what the pathway is from some 97 million Catholic baptisms to the 38,000 LEMs (there is one LEM in the U.S. for every 2,556 people who were baptized and raised Catholic). Time for me to get back to answering this question... 

Above photo courtesy of _Libby_ at Flickr Creative Commons.