Checking in with Catholics and Election 2012

It's been too long since we've looked at any election data. With less than 100 days to go, now seems like a good time to see what is going on in the Catholic electorate. As a political scientist I can still say, in many ways, it is far too early. We don't know the impact of the selection of a running mate for the Republicans, both conventions are key, and the debates could provide turning points. Not to mention changes in the economy or foreign affairs could alter the election calculus (...does anything matter before Saturday Night Live begins to run their parodies?).

What it is not too early to say is that the race is largely over in 34 states and the District of Columbia. Polling data and voting trends over time lead us to believe these states are already "locked in." Outcomes here could only be altered by a very dramatic event. In 16 states, the race remains competitive and my analysis is on the "open-minded" side! For example, I'm leaving Georgia competitive because President Obama has 45% approval here and the Real Clear Politics polling average puts it in the "leaning Republican" column. Similarly, I still have Oregon as competitive because President Obama's approval there is 47 percent and this state is in the "leaning Democrat" column with the Real Clear Politics polling average. Many analysts would argue that fewer states are in play.

There are an estimated 17,225,000 self-identified Catholic adults living in what I consider to be competitive states (equivalent to 31% of the national Catholic voting age population or VAP). Some of these individuals are not in the voting eligible population (VEP) due to lack of citizenship but it is not possible to estimate the size of this population specifically for Catholics.

Geography matters as Catholics only make up 19% of the total VAP in competitive states (the total VAP in these states is 89.8 million). In recent elections, Catholics have made up about 25% of the total electorate. The full and final "weight" of the Catholic vote in the most competitive states will depend on turnout as well.

What does the potential Catholic electorate look like in competitive states? First, it is important to note that aggregating polls is always recommended, when possible. As the figure below shows, there is substantial variation and volatility in estimates of party identification (among the strongest predictors of presidential vote choice) in election polls. Note the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll from last week had among the highest percentages of Democrats and lowest percentages of Republicans, whereas a recent Fox News poll had a more even distribution.

In the 20 most recent publicly available election polls I can review (via iPoll), on average, the U.S. electorate overall (Catholic and non-Catholic) is 34% Democrat and 27% Republican. Thus, President Obama has two key advantages in that he is an incumbent and he has a 7 percentage point partisan advantage in the electorate. Polls indicating advantages of more than a 12 percentage point difference in party ID in the overall electorate are likely straying into outlier territory.

The most recent survey I can analyze (...the actual data set, where I can isolate Catholics rather than just read national toplines or news releases) is from Gallup in June. The data reveal that Catholics are divided along partisan and ideological lines in both competitive and non-competitive states.

Differences in the figure above are within sub-group margins of sampling error (...which are larger than one would prefer due to smaller numbers of respondents in competitive states). This figure uses Gallup's combination of ideology and partisanship (including party "leaners"). I find this especially useful for analyses of Catholics as the Church's priorities are split between the U.S. parties and American political ideologies. The Church's stance on the death penalty, immigration, and fighting poverty are arguably more aligned with liberal thinkers and Democrats. The Church's stance on abortion, same-sex marriage, and religious liberty are arguably more consistent with conservative thinkers and Republicans. Thus, you may often see a conservative Democrat or a moderate Republican expressing opinions that are very consistent overall with the Bishops' Faithful Citizenship document. Collectively, conservative Democrats and moderate/liberal Republicans make up 28% of Catholics in competitive states (27% in non-competitive states).

Although margins of error are large, it does appear that conservative Republicans likely outnumber liberal Democrats among Catholics in competitive states. Some of the other characteristics of potential Catholic voters in competitive states are shown in the table below:

• An estimated 71% of Catholics of voting age in competitive states are currently registered to vote (68% are registered nationally). Protestants, inside and outside of competitive states, are the religious group with the highest registration numbers (80%).
• A majority of Catholics in competitive states (55%) say religion is an important part of their daily life. About one in four (24%) attends Mass every week (CARA adjusted percentage; consistent with our own polling nationally). In recent history, weekly Mass attenders lean Republican.
• One in five Catholics (21%) in competitive states has served in the military at some point in their life. In past elections, members of the military and veterans have tended to lean Republican. 
• Eleven percent of Catholic adults in competitive states are either unemployed and looking for work or working part-time with a preference for full-time work. These Catholics may lean Republican, dissatisfied with sustained high unemployment rates that have been unprecedented in the post-World War II era.
• Five percent of Catholics in competitive states are members of a labor union. In past elections, union members have tended to lean Democratic.
• Updated (results not shown in table above): Twelve percent of adult Catholics in competitive states self-identify as Hispanic/Latino(a). By comparison, 34% of adult Catholics in non-competitive states self-identify as Hispanic/Latino(a). Catholics who self-identify as Hispanic/Latino(a) lean Democratic (...more research on this, including a CARA contribution, is available here).
• Fourteen percent of Catholics in competitive states work for the local, state, or federal government. Many of these Catholic public sector workers indicate working for the federal government.
• Half of Catholics (49%) in competitive states say the economic conditions in their local area are “only fair” or “poor.” Six in ten (60%) are this negative about the economy in their state. Nearly three in four (73%) say that economic conditions nationally are “only fair” or “poor.”

Catholics make up the largest share of the voting age population in the following four competitive states: New Mexico (32%), New Hampshire (30%), Pennsylvania (30%), and Wisconsin (29%). Most analysts have these states "leaning" Democrat. Most consider the hottest battlegrounds to be Ohio, Virginia, and Florida. I'd add Nevada to that mix as well in my own Electoral College scenarios (...perhaps New Hampshire also). Catholics could be an important "swing vote" in Nevada, Florida, and Ohio but make up a much smaller share of the potential electorate in Virginia.

Most recent polls are showing Catholics split between the candidates in vote choice. Again I don't make much of these yet with so many important milestones ahead. But it is clear that there is unlikely to be a "Catholic Vote" in 2012 and instead we will be focusing on how the vote of Catholics may or may not be important (...the votes of those without a religious affiliation may be more decisive to the election outcome).

Pew released a glimpse of Catholics possibly coming together on an issue important to the Church this week. But don't look for it in your newspaper. Almost every religion reporter I know of ignored it. However, if a tree falls and a reporter doesn't write about it you could still trip over the stump. Republicans may be happy to hear that...

• "By a 56% to 36% margin, Catholics who are aware of the bishops’ protests about what they believe are infringements of religious liberty say they agree with the bishops’ concerns."
• "The percentage of Catholics saying they are satisfied with the leadership of American bishops has increased sharply since 2002."

Yet, in that same poll Pew also reveals something that will likely please Democrats...

• "[W]while most Catholics who are aware of the bishops’ protests agree with their concerns, about half of Catholic voters (51%) say Barack Obama best reflects their views on social issues such as abortion and gay rights; 34% say Mitt Romney best reflects their views on these issues."
• "Currently, 51% of Catholic registered voters support Obama or lean toward him, while 42% support Romney or lean toward him."

Stay tuned. As election season kicks into high gear we'll certainly have more analysis on the vote of Catholics in 2012...

Is the Glass Half-Full or Half-Empty (and does it really matter)?

This blog post was written by CARA summer intern Nicole Cornell, a rising sophomore at the College of Saint Benedict/Saint John’s University in St. Joseph, Minnesota. She is double-majoring in Sociology and Theology. As part of her internship she has been studying theories of what attracts women to religious life.

Community Clarity
The age old question of whether the glass is half-full or half-empty has often been used to determine a person’s level of optimism. However, does it really matter if it is half-full or half-empty, as long as the content is drinkable?

This same notion can be applied to the declining trend of female religious in the United States today. What if it’s not the trend in numbers of religious vocations that really matters here? Perhaps it’s a matter of finding clarity? Just as what really matters is the content of the glass being drinkable, what really matters is how religious orders can exist in a future time, regardless of the many hypothesized reasons for the downward trend in their membership.

Throughout several of the sociological hypotheses surrounding the topic, a common thread emerges, calling religious orders to define a strong and clear sense of community. Clarity of description regarding the unique aspects of community life offered in religious orders is generally agreed upon as a necessary component in order to illustrate religious orders’ usefulness and purpose in modern-day America. A strong sense of community promotes important living aspects of religious life for women religious, contributes to preferred atmosphere for religious life, and is attractive to new, younger members.

Community Support
In the study entitled, "Recent Vocations to Religious Life: A Report for the National Religious Vocation Conference" (2009), conducted by CARA, new members of religious orders in the United States were surveyed on a variety of aspects relating to their discernment process and religious life preferences. This data was then narrowed to only female religious respondents for the purpose of this article.

As religious orders seek to attract new vocations by appealing to a younger generation of Catholics – defined as the Millennial Generation (born in 1982 or later) – the importance of defining a strong and clear sense of community must be considered in its relation to the appeal of religious life.

In examining correlations within the data it was evident that several factors relating to generational differences in opinions on the importance of community life were evident among female religious (correlations significant at the .05 level, 95% confidence interval).

The graph below demonstrates that, overall, Millennial women religious were more likely to place higher importance on various aspects relating to the "sense of community" within a religious order both in their discernment process and as professed members of their order. 

Millennial religious women are more likely than women religious of all other generations to respond that "community life in the institute" was "very much" important to them when discerning a vocation to religious life (79% compared to 69%).

Support for the higher importance placed on a "sense of community" by younger women in religious life compared to those of older generations is shown through preferences for living in larger communities, as well as greater importance placed on aspects that make up community living. Almost three in four Millennial women religious (74%) prefer to live in "large" size communities, that is, living in a community of 8 or more members together. This is in contrast to only half (49%) of women religious from all earlier generations.

Also, 8 in 10 younger women religious place "very much" importance on all aspects that make up community living in religious life such as: 

• Living with other members
• Praying with other members
• Working with other members
• Sharing meals together
• Socializing or sharing leisure time together

These respondents are considered to value "high community." This is in contrast to only a little over half (53%) of respondents from other generations listing all aspects of community life to have "very much" importance to them.

Community Spirit
Quite evidently, the question of the contents of the glass being drinkable or not, trumps the question of whether the glass is half-full or half-empty. In the same way, regardless of what may be said on the decline of membership in women religious orders in the United States today, the importance lies in how religious orders will continue to function in the future, regardless of the trend.

Throughout several of the theories, there is a suggestion that a strong and clear sense of community needs to be evident by religious orders for them to continue to exist within modern, American society. A strong sense of community life is an important aspect of religious life valued by both incoming and current members, to varying degrees.

It is evident that young people today are more attracted to groups with a strong sense of community. Therefore, it is the orders that are able to exude their sense of community to the external world that young people will be more attracted to join. Young people are looking for orders that offer this strong and clear sense of community. Such orders visibly stand for something unique and have a specific mission and identity that is deemed worthy of receiving a young person’s gift of self.
 
Above photo courtesy of micmol at Flickr Creative Commons.

Are We What Our Ancestors Ate?

I love being a social scientist but if I had to choose my career over again there is a slim chance I’d become a chef instead. In these times of multiple food television networks and best-selling celebrity chef cookbooks it is easy to think of food as something frivolous. But it is far from this.

We spend more than two hours a day consuming food and drinking (on average 2.5 hours). People in Japan and France have longer life expectancies than many living elsewhere and this may have something to do with their higher consumption of particular products (fish and red wine, respectively). On the other hand, the United States is suffering from unprecedented levels of diabetes and obesity in part because of our consumption of sugary drinks. In 2011, 44.7 million Americans (14% of the population) utilized food benefits from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (i.e., food stamps; with an average benefit of $133.85 per month or a total of $4.46 per day). Many more people worldwide will go to bed hungry tonight (…as Americans spend more than $30 billion annually to feed their pets and almost twice as much on weight loss programs for ourselves). Spikes in the price of bread and rice have historically been the sparks of revolution around the world (...notoriously in France but more recently in the “Arab Spring” in North Africa and Middle East). In sum, the food we consume has very real and important consequences. There are good reasons we should be studying this topic.

CARA has been approached more than once by food companies wondering what we know about Catholics’ food preferences. One fast food company was particularly interested if we had data on fish consumption during Lent. On this lighter note I wondered, if I was planning to open a restaurant would I need to know the religious affiliation of the people in the neighborhood? Strangely, it might help.

When Catholics are asked what their first choice of food would be if they were dining out they most often select Italian (38%). No surprise yet. Italian food is amazing. Strangely though, Protestants—whether Evangelical or Mainline—are significantly less likely to prefer this option (21% and 25%, respectively). Protestants are more likely to prefer American fare (which really isn’t American: e.g., hamburgers are from Hamburg steak in Germany, hot dogs from frankfurters also in Germany, meatloaf again from Germany, or fried chicken which is thought to be inspired from Scottish and West African recipes. Perhaps barbecue has the best claim for authentic American heritage). 

Those of other religions, who like Catholics are rooted in immigration from other parts of the world, are more likely to prefer “non-American” food fare. Nones (those with no religious affiliation), of which 40% were raised in a Protestant denomination, are very similar in their preferences to those who currently self-identify as Protestant—sometimes the religion fades but the food sticks.

It is clear that Americans with a more recent history of immigration in their ancestral tree are more likely than those who descended from earlier settlers to prefer food from other shores. Even as many no longer self-identify as Italian Americans the preference for food from this region remains in the Catholic population.

This same CBS/Vanity Fair Poll from which results above are derived asked some other interesting questions about food preferences. Respondents were also asked what their favorite ice cream is. Catholics are more likely than those of any other religious affiliation to prefer chocolate (I’m glad to be Catholic…). That means of course that there are actually people in this country that would be more likely to prefer vanilla (e.g., Protestants and those of other religious affiliations). At least Nones and Catholics share something in common—both prefer chocolate. Perhaps this is the secret ingredient for New Evangelization?

Finally in this same survey respondents were asked about several different “indulgences” they would prefer if there were no effects on their physical health (no mention of spiritual health in the question wording…). U.S. adult Catholics choose food over sex, inactivity, alcohol, smoking, and getting a good tan.

Catholics are more likely than those of other faiths to choose food over all other options listed. Evangelicals—similar to those of other religions and Nones—split their preferences between food and avoiding exercise completely (39% and 21%, respectively). Mainline Protestants prefer eating and smoking (43% and 14%, respectively).

It is good too see the Catholic love of food but on the other hand I believe in all things in moderation (gluttony really is a sin). I enjoy Italian food (Cacio e Pepe please) on a night out but also think it is important to strive to do everything I can possible to be sure others have enough food. I’m for pasta in every pot and ice cream in every freezer. Statistically, Americans tend to pay attention to food needs most during the holidays from Thanksgiving to Christmas. It’s summer but you might consider making it a Christmas in July and donate to an organization that provides food to those in need. In 2010 more than 3,000 local Catholic Charities offices provided food to nearly 7.2 million people through food banks, soup kitchens, home delivered meals, and other means. Outside of U.S. borders Catholic Relief Services provides invaluable assistance to help those in need develop and sustain agriculture and CRS provides food assistance through its social safety net programs as well. 

The average American household spends $2,736 per year dining out (42% of our annual food spending). Perhaps each of us could forgo a few nights eating at our favorite restaurant and give a try to being a chef at home. Take the difference in food costs and give it to a Catholic charity that provides food assistance. Fewer in the world would go to bed hungry and perhaps some of us will be inspired to start a second career as chefs.

Above photos courtesy of nicksherman, lucasartoni, and nc_hiker at Flickr Creative Commons.