Beginnings of a Francis Correction? And Other Musings from the 2014 GSS

 

To date there has been a lot of talk but little real research possible on the “Francis Effect” (our previous thoughts). Social scientists now have their first glimpse at the potential effects in the 2014 General Social Survey (GSS). This is the primary survey used by sociologists. It is based on face to face interviews with a national random sample of adults. It began in 1972 and in the last two decades one survey has been completed every two years. Each GSS typically has interviews with about 500 Catholics. In 2014, 606 were surveyed (margin of sampling error of ±4.0 percentage points). This post pulls out some of the trends and major new findings for Catholics in 2014.

Are the U.S. Catholics of 2014 any different from 2012 and previous years in the GSS? First I present the most boring and surprising (to some) result? Catholics still make up a quarter of the adult population. To the chagrin of many reporters at secular newspapers the Catholic population will not decline like it is supposed to.

Protestants and other Christians are not fairing as well and for the first time in the GSS make up less than half of the population. A near mirror image of this decline is the continued rise of the Nones, who have no religious affiliation (although many still believe in God and have religious or spiritual aspects in their life). Catholics still outnumber Nones but this may no longer be the case, if current trends continue, when the 2016 GSS is released.

Of course a stable affiliation percentage among a growing total population means that the Catholic population is also growing in absolute numbers. Yet, there is no increase in the affiliation percentage that one might expect given the rhetoric of a possible Francis Effect. There is certainly no evidence of any negative impact either. Then again no pope since the end of World War II has had any observable impact on the Catholic affiliation percentage which has remained absolutely steady in the mid-20% range.

Another closely watched figure is the Catholic retention rate. This is the percentage of those raised Catholic who remain Catholic as an adult. In the early 1970s this was in the mid-80% range. It has been steadily declining since to a low of 65% in 2012. In a bit of a surprise this has not dipped again as the trend would predict. The 2014 retention rate registered 66%. Given recent history even holding steady is an interesting result.

Respondents in the GSS are also asked to measure the strength of their religious affiliation. Respondents can say “strong,” “not very strong,” or finally “somewhat strong.” Here there was a significant bounce among Catholics in 2014 compared to 2012 in responding “strong” (27% to 34% or +7 percentage points). There was a decline in the percentage responding “not very strong” (62% to 56% or -6 percentage points). Again this is not a massive shift by any means but it breaks a trend of consistently declining numbers of Catholics saying their affiliation is “strong” in the last decade.

Affiliation is rooted in identity and membership. Behavior is another key component of religiosity. Are Catholics going to Mass more often? Are they praying more frequently? Overall, Mass attendance in 2014 (as well as in 2012 and 2010) is less frequent than in the 1970s, 1980s, or 1990s. It’s very similar to what it was in the 2000s. About a quarter say they attend once a week or more often (24%) and more than one in five go less than weekly, but at least once a month (22%). In total, 46% percent of Catholics are at Mass at least monthly. “Christmas and Easter” Catholics make up 28% of the population by attending Mass a few times a year. One in ten are rarely at Mass (9%) and 17% never go to Mass. Thus, about a quarter of Catholics (26%) are almost completely disconnected from parish life. In the 1970s this group amounted to 13% of Catholics while 63% were at Mass at least monthly (for more on this blog about Mass attendance see: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5).

What has held steadier is the frequency with which Catholics have their own conversations with God in their daily lives. Just fewer than six in ten Catholic pray daily and this has remained relatively unchanged since the early 1980s. The percentage praying less than daily but at least once a week has dipped slightly to 20% and 12% pray less than once a week. Nearly one in ten never pray (9%). This sub-group didn’t exist in the 1980s or 1990s but has grown since 2000.

The best news from the GSS for the Church in 2014 is that some worrisome trends have halted (some assessments of other recent Church trends are here). It will take another survey wave or two of consistent results to discern a real course “correction” in the data. This survey could be an outlier. These happen with good research every once in a while just by chance. Does the GSS indicate a Francis Effect? Not in the way this term is used in the media. But it does place a question mark out there. Now we just need to wait two years for the 2016 GSS. That may be all the time we have to examine a potential Francis Effect as the Pope has just indicated he may choose to retire in the next few years.

Other notable takeaways from the GSS include:

• About eight in ten Catholics believe in life after death (79%) and this belief is more prevalent among Catholics now than it was in the early 1970s (e.g., 70% in 1975).
• The retention rate for Nones is 65%. Thus, those raised without a religious affiliation are likely to remain this way as adults. Four percent of those raised as Nones become Catholics as adults and 25% become Protestants or other Christians.
• Forty-three percent of Catholics are “moderates” in terms of their political ideology. A third are “conservative” and 24% are “liberal.” The percentage of Catholics who consider themselves to be “liberal” has been in a slow decline (peaking at 32% in 1990).
• Thirty-eight percent of Catholics oppose the death penalty. In 1990, only 19% did so. There is a trend of increasing opposition among Catholics, which is consistent with Church teachings.
• Twenty-five percent of Catholics have a “great deal” of confidence in organized religion. That may seem low but it is similar to results in recent years and by comparison only 8% have this same level of confidence in the press (matching an all-time low in 2008). The Executive Branch of the Federal Government registers in at 13% percent and Congress at 7%.
• Attitudes about abortion remain relatively unchanged with 40% of Catholics supporting legal abortion for any reason, 73% if the pregnancy is a result of rape, and 86% if the mother’s health is seriously endangered.
• Forty-four percent of Catholics say the ideal number of children for a couple to have is two. Only 27% of adult Catholics have had only two children. Fourteen percent have one child and 25 percent none. A third of Catholics have had three or more children.
• Fifty-four percent of adult Catholics are currently married. Five percent are widowed, 12% divorced, and 3% separated. Twenty-seven percent are single and have never married. That is near an all-time high in the GSS series (i.e., 29% in 2010). None of the Catholics surveyed were in a same-sex marriage (0.6% of all respondents are) although 3% self-identify their sexual orientation as gay, lesbian, homosexual, or bisexual. The average age of first marriage for Catholics is 24.4. In 1972 this was 22.7. 
• Only 12% of Catholics believe sex before marriage is “always wrong” (compared to 39% in 1972). Eighty-three percent believe that sex with a person other than your spouse after marriage is “always wrong” (compared to 72% in 1973). For the first time in the GSS, a majority of Catholics say sexual relations between two adults of the same sex is “not wrong at all” (55%).
• Only 16% of Catholics think someone has the right to end their own life if they are “tired of living.” However, 58% believe suicide is acceptable if one has an incurable disease. 
• Twenty-five percent of Catholics say they have a gun in their home (compared to 42% in 1977).
• Thirty-eight percent of Catholics self-identify their ethnicity as Hispanic or Latino. Twenty-five percent of Catholics say their family ancestry is Mexican. Twelve percent indicate Irish ancestry, 11% Italian, and 10% German.
• Eighty-three percent of Catholics are citizens and 18 percent are non-citizens. Twenty-eight percent of adult Catholics were born outside of the United States.
• The average Catholic adult male is 5 feet 10 inches tall and weighs 189 pounds. The average Catholic adult female is 5 feet 4 inches and weighs 158 pounds. Catholics are just as tall as the average American adult of their gender however they weigh a few pounds less. A majority of Catholics, 59% say they are in “very good” to “excellent” health.

Arrow image courtesy of Bernard Goldbach.

Who Wants to Be a Lay Ecclesial Minister?

A decade ago the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops (USCCB) released Co-Workers in the Vineyard of the Lord. This serves as a resource for bishops and others responsible for guiding the development of lay ecclesial ministry in the United States. Lay ecclesial ministers (LEMs) are those individuals who are adequately formed and prepared lay persons, authorized by the hierarchy to serve publicly in leadership for a particular area of ministry, in close mutual collaboration with clergy (...a population we’ve blogged about before 1, 2, 3, 4).

There are approximately 39,600 LEMs in parish ministry in the United States today (up from 30,600 in 2005 and 21,570 in 1990). For practical purposes these are professional and trained lay persons involved in paid parish ministry for at least 20 hours a week. A recent CARA national survey of parish leaders estimated that 80% of LEMs in the United States are female and the median age is 55. Most self-identify as non-Hispanic white (88%). Only about one in 20 LEMs are of the Millennial Generation (born 1982 or later). As with many in the Church’s workforce there is interest in “the next generation.” What will the lay parish leaders of tomorrow be like?

In 2012, CARA conducted a national study on vocations. We identified sub-groups of never-married Catholics (ages 14 and older) who had ever considered a vocation. That report generated a profile of the men who had considered becoming a priest or religious brother and of women who had considered becoming a religious sister or nun. The survey for this study also included a question regarding consideration of a LEM vocation. Specifically respondents were asked,

A lay ecclesial minister is someone with professional training working or volunteering in a ministry at least part-time for a Catholic parish or other Church organization (for example, director of religious education, pastoral associate, youth minister, campus chaplain, or hospital chaplain). Have you ever considered serving in the Church as a lay ecclesial minister?

In this post we apply the same methods of analysis for those who have considered a LEM vocations that we used to determine the profiles of those who had considered becoming a priest, brother, or sister. 

First the issue of overlap must be addressed. Some may have considered more than one vocation in the Church. For LEMs this may be frequent as one might consider being a religious brother or sister that is primarily involved in parish ministry as a LEM.

As shown in the figures below, 13% of never-married male Catholics have considered becoming a priest or religious brother and 6% have considered becoming a LEM. However, there is an overlap in these groups with 2% considering more than one of these vocations. Among those men considering a vocation it is more common to consider becoming a priest or brother without ever considering becoming a LEM. Among never-married females, 11% have considered becoming a religious sister or nun and 8% have considered becoming a LEM. Four percent have considered both of these vocations.

Overall, 7% of respondents—male and female combined—said they had ever considered becoming a LEM. That is equivalent to more than 1.7 million never-married Catholics ages 14 and older. How is this sub-group of Catholics different from those who have not considered becoming a LEM?

We used a similar logistic regression model to what was used to understand consideration of priestly and religious vocations in the 2012 study (excluding questions about encouragement as these were specific to those other vocations and questions about parish ministry or service that reflects some who may already be LEMs. A total of 0.9% of respondents indicated that they had considered becoming a LEM and now serve as such already). One key difference here is that the LEM model includes both males and females together with the addition of a variable for gender. This is important given that LEMs are disproportionately female.

A total of 33 variables were included spanning information about one’s youth, practice of the faith, education, participation Church groups and activities as well as demographics (regression table). The factors listed below emerge as statistically significant positive predictors of having considered becoming a LEM. The impact of each, after controlling for everything else in the model, is reported as well.

• Faith is among the most important or the most important part of life (3.2 times more likely to consider than those not responding as such)
• Participated in campus ministry on a college campus (3.1 times more likely to consider than those who did not)
• Reads or prays with the Bible or Scripture at least once a week (2.9 times more likely to consider than those who do not)
• Has volunteered in a service project in their local community to help people in need (2.6 times more likely to consider than those who did not)
• Belongs to a group or organization that encourages devotion to Mary (2.4 times more likely to consider than those who do not)
• Self-identifies as Hispanic or Latino/a (2.3 times more likely to consider than those self-identifying as Non-Hispanic white)
• Being involved in their parish is “very important” to their sense of what it means to be Catholic (2.2 times more likely to consider than those not responding as such)
• Attended Mass at least once a week during high school (2.1 times more likely to consider than those who did not)
• Attends Mass at least once a week now (2.1 times more likely to consider than those who do not)
• Has a household income of less than $40,000 per year (2.0 times more likely to consider than those with higher incomes)
• Participates in multiple Church-related groups, programs, and activities (1.6 times more likely to consider than those who do not)

Gender is not a statistically significant predictor of considering a LEM vocation once one controls for everything else in the regression model. This means that the general observation that there are fewer male LEMs or fewer men interested in this vocation is attributable to gender disparities in the factors listed above—most likely the combined religiosity or importance of faith reflected in the statistically significant predictors.

As noted previously, 88% of current LEMs self-identify as non-Hispanic white. Expect that to change significantly over the next decade and beyond. Much of the racial and ethnic diversity of the U.S. Catholic population is concentrated among those born after 1960. In CARA surveys of parish leaders, the average age at which LEMs say they hear the call to enter their ministry is 25. As more Millennial Generation Catholics, the oldest of which are 33 this year, enter ministry the diversity of LEMs will shift. This is already represented in the regression results noted above and in the diversity among those we know to be currently enrolled in LEM formation programs. According to CARA’s annual Ministry Formation Directory (MFD) surveys, 56% of those enrolled today in one of these programs self-identifies as something other than non-Hispanic white (47% Hispanic or Latino/a, 3% Asian or Pacific Islander, 3% African American or black and 3% something else). 

What is also clear is that a great place to find the LEMs of tomorrow may be in the Catholic campus ministry programs at the public, private, and Catholic colleges of today. This is quite different than the profile of interest in other vocations. The best education-related predictor of women’s considering a religious vocation was enrollment in Catholic primary school and the best similar predictor for men’s interest in becoming a priest or brother was enrollment in a Catholic secondary school. As shown in the figure below, more than a third of those who participate in campus ministry programs consider a LEM vocation (35%).

CARA’s results are almost identical to results of a survey of university students known to campus ministries in Dean Hoge and Marti Jewel’s 2007 book The Next Generation of Pastoral Leaders. Among the campus ministry respondents, those who are leaders or officers in their organization were most likely to have considered a LEM vocation (52%).

 Campus ministry image courtesy of St. Joseph Province of the Dominican Friars.

Deconstructing the American Weekend: Where Religion Fits In

Were there too many empty pews in your church last weekend? Just what was everyone else doing while you were at Mass?

A great resource for understanding what Americans do is the American Time Use Survey (ATUS), which is conducted by the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics. We’ve previously used ATUS and other similar studies to look at generational differences in religious practice over time.

The ATUS interviews respondents from a large, nationally representative, random sample of households (more than 26,000) over the course of a year. Respondents are asked how they spent their time the day before they were interviewed (from 4 a.m. to 4 a.m.). The survey inquires as such: “So let's begin. Yesterday, at 4:00 AM, what were you doing?” The duration of activities are recorded and the day and night is filled out. Respondents can and do indicate that they multitask (i.e., do more than one thing at a time). The advantage of conducting a time use study is that the research is not directly inquiring about activities. So respondents are not asked, “Did you go to religious services?” (…when asked directly by Gallup, about four in ten Americans say they’ve gone to religious services in the week prior to being interviewed). In the ATUS, church attendance is only recorded if the respondent brings this up. This creates more accurate estimates of what people are actually doing (something we’ve covered before: 1, 2).

The table below shows the ATUS results for 2013 for what Americans (ages 15 and older) did on Saturdays and Sundays combined (…note this includes people of any religious affiliation or no affiliation). Nearly four in ten hours of the day on a weekend (38.9%) is spent asleep (an average of 9.34 hours per day). Nearly all Americans report time spent on leisure activities (e.g., socializing, relaxing, using entertainment content) on the weekend, averaging 5.73 hours per day (24% of weekend time). Of this weekend leisure time, 60% is spent watching television (2.57 hours per day). The only other activity that nearly all Americans report doing is eating and drinking and this takes on average, 1.21 hours per day on the weekend (5% of weekend time). One in five Americans works on the weekend (20.7%). Of those who do so, they spend on average 5.48 hours per day on the job. In CARA’s national surveys of adult Catholics we ask respondents for reasons that explain why they have missed Mass. Work is one of the top reasons cited (also illness).

After sleeping, leisure activities, eating and drinking, and work (for some) there is a scattering of other things done more frequently, on average, than religious or spiritual activities. These include: grooming (74.7% engaging for an average of 0.9 hours), housework (35.5% engaging for an average of 1.82 hours), food preparation and cleanup (53.7% engaging for an average of 1.18 hours), consumer goods purchases (42.2% engaging for an average of 1.17 hours), sports, exercise, and recreation (18.8% engaging for an average of 2.18 hours), caring for and helping children in the household (17.5% engaging for an average of 2.12 hours), and travel for leisure and sports (39.3% engaging for an average of 0.8 hours) or for purchasing goods and services (42.4% engaging for an average of 0.72 hours).

On average, Americans spend 0.31 hours per day on the weekend engaged in religious and spiritual activities (1.3% of weekend time). Note again this includes those of all (or no) affiliations and time on both Saturday and Sunday. Overall, 15.5% of Americans report a religious or spiritual activity and of these people, an average of 1.98 hours per day is spent on these activities (8.3% of their weekend time). As shown below, there is very little change in the percentage of time spent on religious or spiritual activities over the last decade. Americans have not become any less religious or spiritual in the things that they do since data collection began in 2003 (…don’t expect to ever read that in a newspaper as it doesn’t fit into the current “narrative” but it is in the data for anyone to see).

These religious or spiritual activities include things like attending a variety of religious services, prayer, meditating, reading or studying religious or spiritual texts, religious education, conducting religious rites in the home, evangelizing, religious or spiritual food preparation, religious or spiritual singing, retreats, visiting graves, or cleaning up after religious services.

Americans spend more time, on average, doing religious or spiritual things on the weekend than lawn and garden care, volunteering, homework or research, caring for pets, home repair, or vehicle-related activities.

Only 6.4% of Americans report religious or spiritual activities on a weekday. Of those who do, an average of 1.17 hours is spent on this per day.

Perhaps the ATUS data can also reveal the biggest “competitor” for time facing religious and spiritual activities. As Robert Putnam identified in Bowling Alone (2000) the one technology that appears to be the most efficient for “consuming” more and more of our time continues to be television. There is likely more than enough space for religion and spirituality alongside shopping and exercising. Working, eating, sleeping, and grooming are all relatively inescapable. Yet, it is difficult to imagine that television (...as much as I love it) is an “essential” for anyone.

It is true that one could watch religious and spiritual content on television. However, CARA’s multiple surveys on this topic reveal this is not a common activity by any means (1, 2). The channel is more often tuned elsewhere. More importantly the ATUS does not code viewing religious or spiritual content as “watching TV” and instead places that time under religious or spiritual activity.

Whether weekday or weekend, more than eight in ten Americans watches television. The average TV watcher consumes more than 24 hours of television per week! Before televisions invaded our living spaces that would have been a whole day every week that we would have spent doing something else (e.g., bowling in a league, visiting neighbors, going to PTA meetings, spending time at the lodge, playing with the kids outside). Over the last decade it has become so much easier to watch television. From cellphones to flat screens, on traditional networks or cable to streaming services—video content has never been so accessible. And the data reveal Americans continue to have a growing appetite for this content. In 2003, the average TV watcher (i.e., most Americans) consumed 23 hours per week. In 2013, the total had grown to 24.4 hours per week.

As television becomes easier to consume almost anywhere and anytime, many brick and mortar membership institutions (including Catholic parishes) are gradually losing their ability to compete for time and attention against video content (from two-minute clips to full-length films). Catholic parishes must be able to make the case that Mass is more important and more interesting than a Game of Thrones streaming marathon or an NFL game. One would think that the former should be evident to any self-identified Catholic. However, CARA’s national surveys show many Catholics do not think missing Mass is a sin or at least not a sin that will lead to negative consequences. Monthly attendance is becoming a norm among many Catholic sub-groups. Making the case for “more interesting” can be a bigger challenge. One avenue may be to join in and do more religion on television, Netflix, YouTube, etc. Get people interested in their faith with good video content and maybe they will be more inclined to create that weekend space for religion and spirituality in a parish.

Until then, when some Catholics (and those of other faiths) continue to tell survey researchers that they “just drifted away” from their faith to be “nothing” we may better understand where many really drift off to…

Images courtesy of Chris Smith and Chris Brown.