Nineteen Sixty-four is a research blog for the Center for Applied Research in the Apostolate (CARA) at Georgetown University edited by Mark M. Gray. CARA is a non-profit research center that conducts social scientific studies about the Catholic Church. Founded in 1964, CARA has three major dimensions to its mission: to increase the Catholic Church's self understanding; to serve the applied research needs of Church decision-makers; and to advance scholarly research on religion, particularly Catholicism. Follow CARA on Twitter at: caracatholic.


The Day After Tuesday: Cumulative Catholic Vote Update

The amount of the cumulative Catholic Republican vote we can see (in exit and entry polls with the necessary religion questions), post-Super Tuesday, has nearly doubled from just more than 1 million last week to more than 1.8 million today. But the overall results have changed little (previous post) with Gov. Romney leading with 50% (note this is not an average of his estimated vote shares in each contest but the observable cumulative estimated total of Republican Catholic votes based on the exit/entry polling). Updated figures below:

The cumulative totals represent 78% of all the votes cast to date (down a bit from what we could see on Friday at 89%). Caucuses rarely use entry polls (and these have significantly fewer participants). Also, Super Tuesday primary exit polls for Oklahoma, Virginia, and Vermont regrettably did not include a religion question that would allow one to isolate Catholic participants.

Of the contests with observable data, Speaker Gingrich's two best Catholic outcomes have been registered in South Carolina (37%) and Georgia (34%). While Sen. Santorum has done his best among Catholics in Michigan (37%) and Tennessee (36%). Gov. Romney is the only candidate who has won a Republican Catholic majority in any of the states we can see with entry/exit polling (i.e., Florida, 56% and Massachusetts, 75%) and he beat Gingrich in Georgia and Santorum in Michigan among Catholics. These results are notable as the Catholics participating in these contests are not the general election Catholic electorate (which would include many Democrats and Independents). These are outcomes among highly politically active (primaries and caucuses are low turnout contests) Catholic Republicans. For now, even the combined Catholic candidate vote totals we can see lag behind Romney's tally.

[Also, we've now posted a state by state breakdown of the potential numbers of Catholic voters in the November general election here. ... 

... I should also add that the political analysis in my recent posts is from my point of view as a political scientist, not as a Catholic or as a voter. As I have noted here before I'm not registered to vote. As a scientist I aim to be as objective and emotionally detached from the political process as possible. I should also note that CARA has always been a non-partisan, non-profit research center.]

Search This Blog

Blog Archive

© 2009-2021 CARA, Mark M. Gray. Background image courtesy of muohace_dc.