New Year, A Bit of New Research

Here are a few brief research odds and ends that have piled up to begin the new year...

Did Catholics come home?

We have no Mass attendance polling or headcount data. Yet, it is clear by some measure that the national Catholics Come Home (CCH) television advertisements had an impact in December. Evidence of the number of Catholics seeing the CCH videos, connecting with the CCH website and then some following through with seeking out parishes and Masses jumped up last month. 

At the time of this post, Quantcast indicated that the CCH website ranked in the top 15,000 sites for traffic in the U.S. The tracking firm estimates that individual visitors from the U.S. in December were up 2,506% from November to a total of 179,239 (by comparison there were only an estimated 1,800 visitors to the CCH site in August 2011).

Alexa estimates that 85% of CCH website visitors are from the U.S. and that more than 1,200 other websites link to CCH. The quarterly “daily reach” (the percentage of web users visiting) has been up 430% (Nov.-Jan.) and page views have been up 570% during the same period (about 3 page views per user for more than 3:30 minutes).

Alexa also indicates that only 13% of CCH site visitors come from a search engine. Yet, even here—specifically on Google—there was an uptick in Advent. More people searched for “Catholics Come Home” during the last few weeks than at any other time in the past.

Google Trends indicates that CCH’s long-term top markets for search volume are in Louisiana, Massachusetts, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Texas, California, New York. The latter three states are the largest and would be expected to be among the leaders.  The preceding states include dioceses that have all had specific CCH campaigns in previous Lent and Advent seasons. The Google Trends data also indicate a potential need for new spots. In many of the states with dioceses that have done a CCH campaign there was not as much of a jump in Google search activity during Advent 2012.

Did CCH bring people back to parishes? One indicator of interest from Alexa is that nearly one in five who visited the CCH website (18.3%) went looking for a Mass time by immediately visiting masstimes.org. Seven percent of CCH visitors go to divorcedcatholic.com for their next site. Also, since writing a previous blog on this topic, the CCH YouTube channel has increased its subscribers by 10% and its video views by 16%.

Did more people read the Gospel of John this month?

Want to know how to get people to read the Bible? Apparently it's all in Tim Tebow's passing yards. Two weeks ago when Tebow passed for 316 yards to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers this total did not go unnoticed as his game winning touchdown pass to Demaryius Thomas generated 9,420 tweets per second (#2 all-time in activity). Tebow, already famous for wearing John 3:16 in his eye black in college, unwittingly caused quite a new media frenzy directed right at the Bible. It is likely that more Americans sought out John 3:16 online or in their Bible at home in the 24 hours after that touchdown pass than on any other single day in U.S. history. It was the top search term on Google for most of the day after the game (see above). The only other day similar? The other spike on the graph is when Tebow wore John 3:16 in his eye black during the BCS National Championship Game in 2009.

For some context, the chart below shows the relative search volume indexes for "John 3 16" and "Catholics Come Home."

 

In the first few weeks of January, for every 100 people searching "John 3 16" there were 5 people searching for "Catholics Come Home."

Both of the notes above point to a continuing reality. TV is still king of the media world and can drive people to new media and their faith in ways that are not always easily imagined. The bigger challenge for the Church is to try to get the Catholics who may have come back to a Mass in December to continue to do so this weekend or those who may have looked up John 3:16 a few weeks ago to read the Bible today.

Catholic schools make a difference

With Catholic Schools Week just around the corner we've had some inquiries here at CARA about studies that show the effects of Catholic schooling on enrolled children. Most who inquire are interested in evidence of the religious or spiritual impact (the academic results are often publicly available in test scores, etc.). Published research on these effects are a mixed bag. Here at CARA we have shown that schooling can be a buffer against disaffiliation.

How might this be the case? Part of it may be in the extra emphasis Catholic children get on the Sacraments while in a Catholic school. In CARA's Sacraments Today survey we found that among Millennials (those born 1982 or later), nearly all Catholic students at Catholic elementary schools celebrate their First Communions and more than nine in ten who attend a Catholic high school are confirmed.

Only eight in ten Catholic Millenials who do not attend a Catholic elementary school celebrate their First Communion and only two-thirds of those not attending are confirmed.

Native American Catholics

In December, a final miracle needed for canonization of Blessed Kateri Tekakwitha was approved. Then and in the past CARA has been contacted for estimates for the size of the Native American Catholic population today. This is a difficult question to answer. One issue is that the population is of a size that makes it difficult to study using national surveys. The second is the complex construction of Native American identity which can range from formal tribal membership to distant ancestral affiliation.

If one utilizes the General Social Survey (GSS) from the last decade and the U.S. Census estimates can be made. The GSS asks, What is your race? Indicate one or more races that you consider yourself to be. This question identifies a total of 155 Native American/Alaska Native respondents on first reference (1% of the U.S. adult population) in the sample from 2000 to 2010 (±0.8 percentage point margin of sampling error). A total of 25 or 16.1% of these respondents self-identify their religion as Catholic. Extrapolating to 2012 that would mean there are more than 500,000 Catholics who self-identify as Native American on first reference (or about 0.6% of the U.S. Catholic population).

If one includes secondary and third self-identified references (the broadest definition possible with the GSS), the total Native American/Alaska Native respondents for the period is 653 (an additional 472 on second reference and 27 on third reference; this total represents 4% of the U.S. adult population). A total of 79 or 12.1% of these respondents self-identify their religion as Catholic. Extrapolating to 2012 with this broader definition there are an estimated 1.6 million Catholics who self-identify as Native American in some way representing 1.8% of the U.S. Catholic population.

Measuring Up and Down: Vatican and Pew
The Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life recently released country by country population estimates by different Christian faith groups. Among these is an estimate for the size of the Catholic population in each country around the world. These estimates are based on country-level census data and surveys. The Vatican releases Catholic population estimates annually in the Annuarium Statisticum Ecclesiae (ASE). There are a few years difference between the Pew estimates and the most recent ASE but all the same one would expect the figures to be very similar.  

So where does the Vatican apparently underestimate the number of Catholics? According to Pew at the top of the list are the United States and Germany. Pew estimates that there are 27.9 million Catholics in Germany compared to only 25.1 million estimated in the 2009 ASE. One frequently sees in the media that the Catholic population of the U.S. is likely about 65 million. Pew puts the current number of U.S. Catholics well above this at 74.5 million (the ASE estimates 69.9 million; CARA has noted for years that the ASE and The Official Catholic Directory underestimate the U.S. Catholic population).

One other area of the world that likely needs to come to terms with a more realistic number of its Catholics is the United Kingdom and Ireland. Comparisons are complicated here by the fact that the Vatican's ASE provides a combined Catholic population total for Ireland and Northern Ireland. However, if one takes the total number of Catholics reported by Pew in the UK and Ireland this totals 14 million. The ASE estimates that there are only 10.5 million Catholics in the UK and Ireland combined. The biggest surprise may be Pew's estimate for the number of Catholics in the UK alone which is at 10 million.

There apparently are other areas of the world where the Church overestimates the number of Catholics. Brazil is an extreme outlier where the ASE estimates that there are 163.9 million Catholics. The Pew study revises this down to 133.7 million. Other countries likely overestimating their numbers of Catholics include France, India, Spain, Italy, and Argentina. Each is more than 6 million off the Pew estimate. For example, the ASE estimate for the number of Catholics in India is 18.6 million. Pew finds evidence for only 10.6 million. 

Yes Virginia, there are still Christians (including Catholics) in Europe

The Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life released a report this week on the size and distribution of the world’s Christian population entitled, Global Christianity. For religion researchers there is not much that is new or surprising in this report. Similar estimates are widely available and used in the field (e.g., ARDA, World Christian Database, World Values Survey, regional barometer surveys, and even the CIA World Factbook). But for the media and the public this report provides a well-done, fresh look at how Christianity has changed in the last century.

The finding that seemed to catch the most attention among religion reporters was the following from the Pew researchers’ executive summary: “In 1910, about two-thirds of the world’s Christians lived in Europe, where the bulk of Christians had been for a millennium, according to historical estimates by the Center for the Study of Global Christianity. Today, only about a quarter of all Christians live in Europe (26%).”

Here is how this statement often got translated in the news (emphasis added):

Nadia Gilani of the Daily Mail (UK):
“Christians remain the largest religious group in the world despite their population migrating from Europe to Africa, Asia and the Americas according to a new study.”

G. Jeffrey Macdonald of Religion News Service:
“With 2.18 billion adherents, Christianity has become a truly global religion during the past century as rapid growth in developing nations offset declines in traditional strongholds, according to a report released Monday.”

Christianity Today:
“A hundred years ago, the centre of Christianity was Europe. Today, Christianity is declining across its former heartland as the church rises in Africa, Asia and the Americas.”

Finally, here is one of the better stories on the study:

Raja Abdulrahim of The Los Angeles Times:
“In 1910, about two-thirds of Christians lived in Europe, where the majority had resided for a millennium. But as Christianity has grown in other parts of the world, the population has seen a shift.”

Have Christians migrated in mass from Europe? Are there fewer Christians in Europe? No to both.

There are more Christians (and Catholics) in Europe now than there have ever been at any time in history. There are growing numbers of individuals without a religious affiliation (i.e., the Nones) and globalization has brought many non-Christians to the continent from other areas of the world. This has altered the percentage of Europeans who identify themselves as a Christian. But population is not a zero-sum game! A smaller population percentage does not equate a smaller number of that population when the overall population is growing.

Vatican statistics have long documented the global shift among Catholics that is noted in the report. For example, below is a figure including Vatican estimates for the global proportions of Catholics by region. In 1900, 68% of the world’s Catholics resided in Europe. In 2009 (most recent data available), this had fallen to just 24%. Crisis? Not quite.

The pie has gotten much bigger. There are more Catholics in the world and Europe’s slice makes up a smaller share of the whole pie but it’s still a heck of a lot bigger piece than it was in 1900. The figure below shows the total population numbers by region.

Europe’s Catholic population has grown by 57% since 1900 from 180 million to 284 million today. There has been no decline in the number of Catholic Europeans. Mass attendance has certainly declined (more in some European countries than others) but the total population affiliated with the faith has continued to grow on the continent.

There was also no great “migration” as the Daily Mail suggests. Africa and Asia do not have more Christians because they moved from Europe. Evangelization has clearly been important but so has another factor that is not mentioned prominently in the study or the news reports about it—fertility.

In many European countries the fertility rate dropped below what is needed for growth (2.1 or above) in the last century. Immigration has filled the gap somewhat—often bringing non-Christians to Europe. At the same time, in many areas of Africa, Latin America, and Asia, population growth has quickened with declines in infant and maternal mortality rates.

As a simple example think of two women: one lives in a country with a fertility rate of 2 and the other lives in a country with a fertility rate of 5. Then assume they live out these fertility rates as do their offspring. The first woman will eventually have 8 great grandchildren. The second woman will have 125 (and 625 great great grandchildren). That is the difference between a low fertility and high fertility nation/region. The growth in the proportion of Christians in what Pew calls the Global South (and smaller proportions in Europe) is largely a function of effective Christian evangelization and differences in fertility rates (sprinkled with a bit of globalization and secularization).

In the figure below (World Bank data via Google Public Data Explorer), you can see the differences in fertility rates over time around the world. Just hit the arrow button to play out the changes that have occurred in the last 50 years. Note, fertility rates have dropped around the globe but the key is the number and regional distribution of countries falling below 2.0 on the y-axis. You'll find most of Europe in this part of the graph.

How to explain the regional differences in fertility? Strangely enough a lot of it is economics. You can see the same fertility trends (this rate is on the y-axis) play out in the figure below with the addition of GDP per capita on the x-axis and the size of the bubbles representing total population (pause the player and place your cursor over a bubble to identify country). Although countries like China and India have the largest populations (including sizable numbers of Catholics), for the future keep an eye on the number of Christians in Nigeria which is expected to grow substantially in the 21st century (currently the home to 20 million Catholics and nearly 60 million Protestants).

Buon Natale!

Above photo courtesy of dalbera at Flickr Creative Commons. 

“C and E” Catholics Decoded

You’ve spent the last four weeks singing “O Come O Come Emmanuel” and getting used to the new Missal translation.  You’ve watched the Advent candles be lit, celebrated the beginning of the new liturgical year, and readied yourself in “joyful anticipation” for Christmas.  Maybe you’ve headed to a Christmas concert (or two), maybe you’ve had family pictures taken (awkward or otherwise).

And then the big day (or Midnight Mass) comes–and there is a stranger sitting in your pew!

Yes, it’s the most wonderful time of the year–and with it come back our brothers and sisters we affectionately call “C and E” Catholics (Christmas and Easter).  Who are these people who flock to our pews two times a year?  And, how many people are we talking about fit into this camp?  Actually, just over half of self-identified adult Catholics attend Mass once or twice a year or less often (data source: CARA’s Sacraments Today). These are the guys (...more often men than women) in green below (56%). Forty-four percent of self-identified Catholics, those in red below, attend Mass more frequently.

These “C and E” Catholics are young and have some of the traits we associate with this demographic. They are less likely to be living in a home they have bought and less likely to be married.  Expect a more youthful look around your parish Sunday with more than six in ten Catholics born after 1960 fitting into the “C and E” Catholic mold. 

They also have differing opinions on the meaningfulness of the Sacraments.  They are less likely than regular Mass attenders to say that each of the Sacraments is “very meaningful” to them.  In fact,  regular Mass attenders are twice as likely as the “C and Es” to say that most of the Sacraments are “very meaningful” to them. 

When asked to select which of the Sacraments that is the most meaningful to them, regular Mass attenders most often selected the Eucharist (43%), compared to less frequent attenders, who selected baptism most often (42%).  So-called “C and Es” are also less likely than more regular Mass attenders to believe in the Real Presence in the Eucharist (40% to 79%, respectively).

These differences in meaningfulness of the Sacraments may be rooted in a lack of early engagement.  Those who attend Mass less frequently are slightly less likely (but still statistically significantly) than those who more regularly attend Mass to have fulfilled their early Sacramental rites, including First Communion and Confirmation.

So, when they are sitting in your pew this Christmas, just what are they looking for in the Mass?  When asked how important each of the parts of Mass are to them, “C and Es” responded that the following aspects were “very important” to them:

• Feeling the presence of God (66 percent)
• Prayer and reflection (62 percent)
• Receiving Communion (55 percent)
• Hearing the readings and the Gospel (47 percent)
• Hearing the homily (31 percent)
• Worshiping with other people (23 percent)
• The music (22 percent)
• The church environment and decorations (22 percent)

And, not to judge, but what do the data say about why these people may be in my pew just once or twice a year?  Why have they missed Mass?  Turns out, it is a combination of not thinking missing Mass is a sin and not being very religious.

My advice to you is the same advice I give my children when they are frustrated:  take a deep breath, smile, and remember that God loves you and all of creation.  There may be less room in the pew but that makes it an even merrier Christmas!

-By CARA Research Associate and Director of Parish Surveys Melissa Cidade

Above photo courtesy of HerryLawford at Flickr Creative Commons. Linked concert vocals by Margaret Cidade-Harkleroad and the Saint Francis International School Choir.