The Day After Tuesday: Cumulative Catholic Vote Update

The amount of the cumulative Catholic Republican vote we can see (in exit and entry polls with the necessary religion questions), post-Super Tuesday, has nearly doubled from just more than 1 million last week to more than 1.8 million today. But the overall results have changed little (previous post) with Gov. Romney leading with 50% (note this is not an average of his estimated vote shares in each contest but the observable cumulative estimated total of Republican Catholic votes based on the exit/entry polling). Updated figures below:

The cumulative totals represent 78% of all the votes cast to date (down a bit from what we could see on Friday at 89%). Caucuses rarely use entry polls (and these have significantly fewer participants). Also, Super Tuesday primary exit polls for Oklahoma, Virginia, and Vermont regrettably did not include a religion question that would allow one to isolate Catholic participants.

Of the contests with observable data, Speaker Gingrich's two best Catholic outcomes have been registered in South Carolina (37%) and Georgia (34%). While Sen. Santorum has done his best among Catholics in Michigan (37%) and Tennessee (36%). Gov. Romney is the only candidate who has won a Republican Catholic majority in any of the states we can see with entry/exit polling (i.e., Florida, 56% and Massachusetts, 75%) and he beat Gingrich in Georgia and Santorum in Michigan among Catholics. These results are notable as the Catholics participating in these contests are not the general election Catholic electorate (which would include many Democrats and Independents). These are outcomes among highly politically active (primaries and caucuses are low turnout contests) Catholic Republicans. For now, even the combined Catholic candidate vote totals we can see lag behind Romney's tally.

[Also, we've now posted a state by state breakdown of the potential numbers of Catholic voters in the November general election here. ... 

... I should also add that the political analysis in my recent posts is from my point of view as a political scientist, not as a Catholic or as a voter. As I have noted here before I'm not registered to vote. As a scientist I aim to be as objective and emotionally detached from the political process as possible. I should also note that CARA has always been a non-partisan, non-profit research center.]

The Potential Catholic Voter: State by State for 2012

Super Tuesday has historically been the moment where we can all begin to look past primary and caucus season to the general election in November. When all the votes are counted this evening it may not be so clear this year. Then again it is never too early (especially when you are a political scientist...)

In the tables below we show the estimated number of Catholics of voting age (VAP) in each state in 2012 (using CARA's aggregated survey estimates of the proportion Catholic by state). Note that this includes individuals who are ineligible to vote due to citizenship status or because they are in prison or on parole. It also excludes military and diplomats overseas who can vote. Michael McDonald at George Mason University has been calculating the voting eligible population (VEP) since 2000 adjusting for these realities. The tables includes a column representing the total VEP as a percentage of VAP (registered voters and "likely voters" are even smaller shares of VAP). Where the VEP percentage is close to 100% this means most of the state's voting age population is eligible to register and vote. However, in places like California where this VEP is only 81% of VAP we can assume that VAP is overestimating the potential number of voters (we cannot estimate VEP by religion specifically).

The color of each state name represents the outcome in 2008 with red representing a Republican win and blue a Democratic win. State names with an '*' are expected to be "battleground" states in 2012 and are considered "in play." The number of 2012 Electoral College votes by state is also presented in the tables as well as the Catholic vote outcome for 2008 (where possible; using existing exit poll data). The final column in the tables shows the proportion of the state's total votes (not to be confused with its VAP) in 2008 that were cast by Catholics (again estimated from exit poll data).

There are an estimated 55.6 million Catholics in the 2012 VAP. Nearly 8 in 10 (79%) reside in the 16 states with 306 Electoral College votes (a candidate needs 270 to win). Five of these states are expected to be battleground states including Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin. President Obama lost the Catholic vote in both Pennsylvania and Ohio in 2008 but won in the total electorate. Although candidates have historically needed to win the Catholic vote nationally to win the presidency this is not the case at the state level. In fact, Sen. McCain won the Catholic vote in five large states that President Obama won among all voters.

Incumbents most often play defense. They try to maintain the state map they won in their initial election and build where possible into states lost. The challenging candidate must often focus on taking states back that their party lost in the last election. 

Candidates have often had some success in their birth states, residency states, and states they have represented or served significantly. Republican candidate Mitt Romney is perhaps more likely to succeed in Massachusetts and in his birth state of Michigan than any of the other Republicans in the race (Utah is a "safe" Republican state with or without Romney). As has been the case in recent elections, Florida will likely be ground zero for the election battle. Thus, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio is often the focus of discussion when considering the "strategic choice" for a Republican running mate. Rubio self-identifies as Catholic (although he has a complex religious background).

If Romney were to eventually win the nomination and was able to maintain the current "safe" Republican states and in the absolute rosiest of scenarios pick up Michigan, Massachusetts, and Florida he would only be at 237 electoral votes. If he could also turn southern states like Virginia and North Carolina back to the Republican column where they have been for decades before 2008 he would be much closer at 265 electoral votes. A "big" potential Romney win would see him also adding western states like Colorado and Nevada as well as New Hampshire. This combination would put him over the top at 284 electoral votes without even accounting for traditional battle grounds like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, or Missouri. Thus, Romney may be able to make the case that he has more potential paths to 270 than either Sen. Santorum or Speaker Gingrich. Neither have had much success at attracting the Republican Catholic vote. Gingrich is perhaps strongest in the South where Republicans already have many "safe" states. Santorum might do better nationally than Gingrich but would still likely have little chance of picking up a Northeastern state and would likely struggle more than Romney in the West.

The mid-size Catholic vote states (in the table above) are full of potential contested territory including Missouri, Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Iowa, and New Hampshire. These represent the more conventional path to 270 electoral votes for the candidates. It will likely be difficult for President Obama to add much more blue to his 2008 map. He will likely suffer some "regression to the mean" (as will some Republicans in Congress following the 2010 election results). He could possibly add Missouri and Arizona in his rosier scenarios.

States with the fewest Catholics were disproportionately won by Sen. McCain in 2008. All of the Republican states in this group are expected to be safe for Republicans again in 2012. Similarly, all of the states won here by President Obama in 2008 are expected to be in his column again in 2012. There is no battleground here (don't expect many campaign visits!).

Romney Has Early Lead in the Republican Catholic Vote

[Update: the data from this post are updated with Super Tuesday results here]

More than 4.5 million Republicans (mostly... as there are open primaries and caucuses can include those of other affiliations) have expressed their preference for their party's 2012 presidential nominee in the first two months of a six month primary and caucus season. We know something about the religion of about nine in 10 of these participants (89% or more than 4 million) in exit polls (primaries) and entry polls (caucuses). Of those we can see in these data, 27% self-identify as Catholic representing 1.08 million participants to date. Of these Catholics, 49% have stated their preference in their primaries or caucuses for Gov. Mitt Romney (more than 530,000 votes). 

 

The only caucus for which polling data are available was held in Nevada. There are no data available for Missouri's non-binding primary (this state will hold a caucus in March) or for the caucuses in Maine, Colorado, or Minnesota. Entry-poll data are available for the Iowa caucus but no question was used that would allow one to isolate Catholic participants. Sen. Rick Santorum did very well in most of these contests but even if he won every single Catholic vote in all of these contests he would still likely trail Romney by more than 200,000 votes and by double digits in percentage points among Catholic Republicans.

The trends over time in the exit/entry polls show the waning of Catholic Republican support for Speaker Newt Gingrich and the rise of support for Santorum. But so far it has not been enough to make much of a dent in Romney's cumulative popular vote for all contests.

Santorum may be focusing on caucus states rather than primaries as a strategic choice. This indeed would result in minimizing his cumulative vote totals as caucuses draw many fewer participants than primaries. But a counter argument would be that the general election does not include any caucuses. Winning the presidency, as well as the nomination to run for this office, requires winning among the broader electorate (and often the Catholic electorate specifically). Santorum has yet to show he can do this among Catholic Republicans in binding primaries (the Missouri contest did not allocate any delegates and resulted in the lowest turnout of any 2012 primary so far at 7%).

Of course entry and exit polls always include margins of sampling error. Yet, Romney's lead is safe beyond these margins and the effects of missing data (the 11% of participants we can't see in surveys). It is also the case that Romney's primary vote totals are reflected in some recent national polling on the broader Catholic vote. 

If a Catholic Republican candidate, Santorum or Gingrich, has hopes of eclipsing Romney's cumulative Catholic popular vote lead they will need to have some big wins next week on Super Tuesday. One of the big prizes will be Ohio where Santorum has held a lead among all Republicans in polls. Another big prize is Georgia where Gingrich leads.