U.S. Senate likely to be less Catholic soon

There are currently 25 members of the U.S. Senate who self-identify their religion as Catholic (nine Republicans and 16 Democrats). Following November’s election there will likely be fewer when the Senate convenes in 2011.

Why? Primarily because five senators are not running to retain their seat, including Chris Dodd (D, CT), Ted Kaufman (D, DE), Sam Brownback (R, KS), Jim Bunning (R, KY), and George Voinovich (R, OH). Also, Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R, AK) lost in the primaries to fellow Republican Jim Miller. Murkowski is running as a write-in candidate but is unlikely to beat Miller and must also compete for votes with underdog Democrat Scott McAdams. There are limited prospects for Catholics to pick up other seats.

As shown below, in recent years representation has generally been proportional with the percentage of senators who self-identify as Catholic being quite consistent with the percentage of the U.S. voting eligible population that self-identifies as Catholic. Note that the Catholic electorate percentages are subject to fluctuations due to sampling margin of error for the American National Election Study (there were no data collected in 2006). Also note there were 26 Catholic Senators until Sen. Edward Kennedy (D) passed away and his replacement, Catholic Sen. Paul Kirk (D) did not run in a special election that was won by non-Catholic Scott Brown (R) over Catholic Democrat Martha Coakley.

No matter what the votes of Catholics are in November, some seats cannot be secured. Sen. Brownback’s Kansas seat and Sen. Voinovich’s Ohio seat are assured to be lost as none of the major candidates running are Catholic. As mentioned above, polling estimates indicate Sen. Murkowski is unlikely to win in her write-in campaign (which is a challenging endeavor as her name will not appear on the ballot). In Connecticut, Sen. Dodd’s seat may also be lost as Catholic candidate Linda McMahon (R) is trailing Richard Blumenthal (D). However, the gap between these candidates has been narrowing and this may be the best chance for a come from behind victory. About 38% of adults in Connecticut self-identify their religion as Catholic.

In Delaware, Sen. Kaufman’s seat may be lost as Christine O'Donnell (R) is trailing Chris Coons (D). O’Donnell, who was raised Catholic has a complex religious history (1, 2) and at the time of this entry, the term “Catholic” only appears on her campaign website in reference to the names of Catholic organizations that have endorsed her. Press stories of her campaign commonly reference her religion as Catholic.

In Florida, George LeMieux’s seat is likely to remain held by a Catholic if Marco Rubio (R) can continue to hold off Kendrick Meek (D) and Charlie Crist (I) as the polls indicate he is likely to do. About 20% of adults in Florida self-identify their religion as Catholic.

In five contests, a hold on a seat is either a lock or very likely. Incumbent Sen. David Vitter (R) and his challenger Charlie Melancon (D) are both Catholic (Vitter leads). In New York, incumbent Catholic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) is leading Joe DioGuardi (R) who is also Catholic. In Washington, Catholic Sen. Patty Murray (D) is running just slightly ahead of fellow Catholic Dino Rossi (R). Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D, MD) and Sen. Patrick Leahy (D, VT) have safe leads over non-Catholic challengers in their states and are expected to win reelection.

There is also a lock for a Catholic gain in the race to replace Sen. Arlen Specter (D) of Pennsylvania. Both Pat Toomey (R) and Joe Sestak (D) self-identify as Catholic. Toomey is currently leading in the polls.

There are two other seats where a Catholic gain is possible. In West Virginia, Catholic candidate Joe Manchin (D) is leading John Raese (R, Presbyterian). However, the race is very close and Raese is trending up in the polls. About 6% of adults in West Virginia self-identify their religion as Catholic. In Indiana, Catholic candidate Brad Ellsworth (D) has consistently trailed Dan Coats (R, Presbyterian) in the polls. About 16% of adults in Indiana self-identify their religion as Catholic.

[Edit/Recount... In New Hampshire, Catholic candidate Kelly Ayotte (R) was leading Paul Hodes (D) at the time of this post as was Catholic John Hoeven (R) leading strongly over Tracy Potter (D-NPL) in North Dakota.]

The following ten Catholic Senate Democrats are not up for election in 2010: Mark Begich (AK), Maria Cantwell (WA), Robert Casey (PA), Richard Durbin (IL), Tom Harkin (IA), John Kerry (MA), Mary Landrieu (LA), Claire McCaskill (MO), Bob Mendez (NJ), and Jack Reed (RI). On the Republican side, three Catholic senators are not facing reelection and will continue to serve in the 112th Congress: Susan Collins (ME), Mike Johanns (NE), and Jim Risch (ID).

As U.S. Vice President and therefore President of the Senate, Joe Biden, a Catholic Democrat would be called upon to break any tie vote in the Senate. Two-thirds of the Supreme Court (six of nine justices; Samuel Alito, Anthony Kennedy,  John Roberts, Antonin Scalia, Sonia Sotomayor, and Clarence Thomas) and 31% of House members are Catholic.

Brothers and Sisters

In a previous post we described how declining Catholic fertility rates have led to fewer baptisms (rather than this being related to any growing reluctance among parents to baptize their children). In this post, we show the effect this has had on Catholic family sizes over time.

As the figure below shows (data are from the General Social Survey or GSS), a majority of young self-identified Catholics (age 18 to 30) in the 1970s and 1980s had three or more siblings (including step-brothers and sisters and adopted siblings).  In the 1990s and 2000s, a majority have two or fewer siblings. A Catholic family with five or more children (the respondent and at least four siblings) has become harder to find, dropping from nearly half of young Catholics reporting this in the 1970s and 1980s to less than a third in the 1990s and 2000s. The rarest case is still the single-child family. Very few young Catholics in any decade report having no siblings.

The number of step-siblings has likely been on the rise as well as some of those who divorce and remarry have additional children. If both original spouses do this it creates a multiplier effect on the number of siblings. In the 1972 GSS, 8% of adult Catholics reported that they had ever gone through a divorce or legal separation in the past (3 percent were divorced or separated at the time and 5 percent had been divorced or separated in the past and were now married or widowed). This figure has risen steadily over the years and in the most recent GSS it was estimated to be 27%.

Note that just because a GSS respondent self-identifies as Catholic it does not mean that their siblings do. Also, even though the fertility rate in the United States is approximately two this is not a direct indicator of average family size. Many women do not have any children. Other women have more than two (as reflected in the sibling results). The GSS results for 'ever having been divorced' are consistent with CARA's own polling of adult Catholics.

Above photo courtesy of trontnort at Flickr Creative Commons.

Catholicism UK

The size of the Catholic population in Britain has changed little since the last papal visit in 1982 (growing only 2.7%). The most recent Vatican estimates indicate just fewer than 5.2 million Catholics in Britain (England, Wales, and Scotland). There is also now nearly the same number of Catholics across the Irish Sea in Ireland and Northern Ireland combined (the Vatican does not provide an estimate for Northern Ireland alone in the Annuarium Statisticum Ecclesiae).

Underlying the stability of the size of the Catholic population in Britain are indications of potentially significant change. A British online panel study (the same respondents are interviewed over the period of several years) conducted as part of the British Election Study (BES) series estimates that as many as 13 percent of those who self-identified as Catholic in 2005 no longer did so when interviewed in 2010. Most of those who left Catholicism (76%) did not join another religion and instead now report that they are not a member of any religion. Yet the panel study also shows that this changeover has had little if any impact on the size of the Catholic population because a similar proportion of respondents who were not Catholic in 2005, have converted (or returned) and now self-identify as Catholic in 2010. These changes are similar to the shifts identified by the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life in the United States (the British survey only measure changes over five years, whereas the Pew survey measures changes over a longer time frame in reference to one's childhood faith. Thirty-two percent of Americans raised Catholic are estimated by Pew to have left the faith, representing 10.1% of the U.S. adult population. CARA's shorter-term estimates for change in the U.S. are available here). 

According to the most recent BES 2010 (using in-person interviews), 9% of the British adult population self identifies as Catholic. The largest religious faith is Anglican (i.e., Church of England, Episcopal) at 28%. Yet, many respondents say they do not have a religion (47%; up significantly in the last decade). This proportion is much larger than estimates for the unaffiliated in the United States (Pew estimates this to be 16%).

Although fewer in number, Catholics in Britain are more likely than Anglicans to indicate that they regularly attend religious services. Thirty-five percent of British Catholics say they attend Mass once a week or more often and 19% say they do not attend weekly but go to Mass at least once a month. By comparison, just one in ten Anglicans attend services weekly and 13 percent attend at least once a month (all of these attendance estimates are likely overestimated due to social desirability pressures; see: The Nuances of Accurately Measuring Mass Attendance). The difference is very significant because it means that the number of weekly church attending Catholics (3.2% of the total adult population) is greater than the number of weekly church attending Anglicans (2.8% of the total adult population) in Britain.

 

Above photo courtesy of Catholic Westminster at Flickr Creative Commons.