The Churn of Catholic Affiliation

According to the General Social Survey (GSS), for more than five decades, about a third of American adults have been Catholic at some point in their lives. Yet, the percentage who were baptized Catholic as minors who self-identify as Catholic now as adults is 20%. This averaged about 25% from the 1970s to the late 2010s. 

The share of the adult population we might call “former Catholics” has measured, on average, 12% of the U.S. adult population since 2010. This represented 33.6 million adults in 2024. I have highlighted the share who is converting into Catholicism elsewhere. It is often widely noted that the numbers becoming former Catholics thus, outweighs those who convert in. The total aggregated number of converts as of 2024 represented 6.3 million adults in the United States.

How does the math work when there are 5 former Catholics for every 1 convert? How does the Catholic share of the population stay afloat at or above 20%, on average? A combination of new cradle Catholics coming of age each year plus the reverts, former Catholics later returning to the Church, and finally immigration of Catholics from other countries. 

Some of the more naïve observers seem to only “do the math” on baptisms and exits without considering the fact that some only remain former Catholics for a time before returning to the faith and that Catholicism is a global faith and most don’t live in the United States. Some of these Catholics end up immigrating to the U.S. every year. There are no expectations these dynamics will change in the near future.

Looking at the three Catholic related groups, who made up 35% of the population in 2024, we can see some distinct patterns. 

Race, Ethnicity, and Place of Birth
The share of cradle Catholics self-identifying their race and ethnicity as non-Hispanic white has been decreasing. In the GSS conducted in the 2000s, 61% of cradle Catholics self-identified as non-Hispanic white.  This declined to 54% in the surveys conducted so far in the 2020s. This sub-group of the population is increasingly Hispanic or Latino (33% in 2000s compared to 38% in the 2020s). The racial and ethnic composition of former Catholics has been stable in the last three decades with nearly two-thirds self-identifying as non-Hispanic white and more than a quarter as Hispanic or Latino. Three quarters or more of Catholic converts self-identify as non-Hispanic white in the last three decades. 

The share of cradle Catholics reporting their place of birth outside of the United States has increased from 15% in the 1970s to 25% in the 2002s. Eight percent of former Catholics were foreign-born in the 1970s. This has increased to 17% in the 2020s. Converts have also increasingly indicated they are foreign born (3% in the 1970s compared to 11% in the 2020s).

Gender
Cradle Catholics and former Catholics are nearly evenly split female and male since the 1970s. Catholic converts are another story. Converts have been disproportionately female since the 1970s. In the 1970s 57% of Catholic converts were female and 43% male. In the 2020s, 59% have been female and 41% male. Why are more women converting to Catholicism than men? One hypothesis is related to marriage. CARA previously explored the connection between marriage between Catholics and non-Catholics and later conversion. This has been one of the most common reasons for conversion. It remains unclear why women marrying may be more likely to change their faith than men. More research is needed to understand this. Yet, if there is something to this hypothesis, we should also see this show up in the data on marital status.

Marital Status
Cradle Catholics and former Catholics have looked similar to Americans in general when it comes to marital status. In the 1970s and 1980s, approximately six in ten said they were married and a quarter never married. Over time the share who are married has declined to 53% of cradle Catholics and 50% of former Catholics in the 2020s. In this decade, 27% of cradle Catholics and 32% of former Catholics have never married. By comparison, nearly six in ten or more Catholic converts have been married every decade since the 1970s. The share of never married Catholic converts is growing but is not at the same level as the rest of the U.S. adult population. In the 2020s, 63% of Catholic converts have been married, 5% widowed, 2% separated, and 8% divorced.

 
Region
Another area where Catholic converts stand out is in the region of residence. Over time, conversion to Catholicism has become more of a Southern thing. In the 1970s, 16% of Catholic converts resided in the South. In the 2020s, 45% of converts reside in this region. The region seeing the biggest declines in converts is the Midwest. Forty percent of Catholic converts resided here in the 1970s. In the 2020s, 20% of coverts were Midwesterners.

The Switch
Since the 1970s, Catholic converts have been more likely to come from other Christian faiths than any other religious identity. However, since 2000, one in five or more converts have had no religious affiliation (i.e., "Nones") previously. Very few convert from Judaism, Islam, Buddhism, or some other religion. 

On the other side, most former Catholics now are shifting into having no religious affiliation (60% in the 2020s). In the 2020s, a third of former Catholics are becoming members of other Christian faiths. 

About Those “Nones”
One could have spoken about a “rise of the Nones” as early as the 1970s in the United States. In 1972, we have the first observation of U.S, adults self-identifying the religion as no affiliation in the GSS at 5% or above. This percentage remained below 10% until 1994 in the GSS. This began to shift upward again in 2000 and appears to have reached another plateau in 2020. The average aggregated estimate today is that 24% of U.S. adults say they don’t have a religious affiliation. 

 
While some may assume the “Nones” shun religious beliefs, the reality is quite different. For example, 32% of adults without a religious affiliation in the 2020s say they believe in God at least sometimes (15% without doubts). Twenty-percent say they do not believe in God and 22% say they don’t know and there is no way to find out. Twenty-six percent believe in a “higher power.” Those who don’t believe in God or don’t know have grown collectively from 32% of those without an affiliation in the 2000s to 42% in the 2020s. 

It’s important for the Catholic Church to understand what is going on among those without a religious affiliation. It is now the most common destination for former Catholics. Thus, it may also be the most common group Catholics “revert” from. More research is needed to understand these dynamics. We do understand it is the group from which one-fifth of those who convert to Catholicism come from. 

The mid-2020s seem to be an interesting period of religious change and churn in the United States. The Catholic Church remains an important part of these shifts. 

Talking About Your Generation…

In 2026, we are finally at a point where we can confidently report survey findings about the youngest (and oldest) American Catholic adult generations. To do so we use the Pew Research Center’s generational year definitions. The youngest, Gen-Z were born between 1997 and 2012, however we can only “see” those born 1997 to 2006 in current adult survey data (i.e., ages 18 and older). It’s with these youngest Catholics that there seems to be the greatest interest in data. We heard a lot in 2025 about a possible religious revival and about Catholics outnumbering Protestants in this younger demographic. What’s in the numbers?

There is one survey, the Comparative Election Study (CES) in 2023, where young Catholics (Millennials and Gen-Z) appeared to match or eclipse the number of Protestants in the population youngest two generations. However, as shown below (click to enlarge figure), the preceding and subsequent survey data for 2024 do not agree with 2023. It is also the case that we don’t see any similar jump in Catholic affiliation among the two youngest generations in the General Social Survey (GSS). More than likely, the 2023 CES data were a margin of error fluctuation. Surveys are always blurry images rather than picture portraits. In older Generations, Catholics trail Protestants in all observations of the CES and GSS since 1972.

Turning to religious practice in 2024, 36% of adult Catholics attended Mass at least once a month, 65% prayed at least once a week, and 76% said their religion is “somewhat” or “very” important to them. The frequency of Mass attendance at least once a month among the youngest Gen-Z Catholics was higher than it was for older Gen-X or Baby Boomer Catholics (39% compared to 30% and 35%, respectively). However, Gen-Z were less likely than older Catholics to pray at least weekly and to say that their religion is “somewhat” or “very” important to them.

Retention rates measure the percentage of adults who were raised Catholic who remain Catholics when surveyed as adults. Among Baby Boomers, retention ranged from 68% to 62% between 2014 and 2024. Generation-X similarly varied from a high of 70% to a low of 60%. The trend for Millennials mirrors that of Gen-X with a slightly lower percentage (ranging from 64% to 53%). Gen-Z has only been visible in large enough numbers in the GSS since 2021, where 67% retention is evident—higher than any other generation at the time. After 2021, retention has fallen each year to 52% in 2024. Thus, only about half of Gen-Z who are raised as Catholic remain Catholic as adults. 

We limited the comparison above to 2014-24 and the four generations for which estimates could be made. To put this in a broader context you can see this on a longer time-scale with more generations below. 

The share of U.S. adults who converted to Catholicism after the age of 16 varies slightly by generation. Typically, this varies between 2% and 3%. As the next figure shows, this is typical for each generation except Gen-Z. The percentage of Gen-Z adults converting to Catholicism in 2021 and 2022 was 0.4% and 0.3% respectively. In 2024, we did see this increase to 2.9%, which is consistent with other generations in recent years. The reason Gen-Z conversion rates may have been low in 2021 and 2022 is that this is a young generation so there has been less time for this cohort to make a religious switch and this period overlaps with the COVID-19 pandemic which may have prevented those wishing to switch from enrolling in OCIA classes. Nonetheless, a 2.9% convert percentage in 2024 is not an outlier from other generations in recent years and brings Gen-Z in line with prevailing patterns (We recently covered the available statistics about adult entries more broadly in a previous post).

One aspect where significant change is evident across generations is racial and ethnic diversity. Forty-percent of Gen-Z Catholics self-identify their race and/or ethnicity as Hispanic or Latino compared to 18% of Baby Boomer Catholics. A minority of Gen-Z and Millennial Catholics self-identifies as non-Hispanic white. The number of Catholics who self-identify as something other than Hispanic or non-Hispanic white is also larger among Millennials and Gen-Z than older Catholics. 

Overall, in 2024, adult Catholics were 33% Democrat, 24% Republican, and 43% independent, affiliated with some other political party, or were unsure of their party affiliation. Gen-Z Catholics were a bit more Democratic (36%) and a bit less Republican (19%). The most Republican segment of Catholics were Baby Boomers (25%) and Gen-X (26%). All generations were more likely to be Democrats than Republicans and all have a plurality who do not affiliate with either major party.

Party affiliation is only half of the story. Overall, Catholics tend to be more conservative than liberal when describing their political ideology. I have often described the median Catholic voter is a center-right Democrat and we can see the Catholic vote shift from Democrats to Republicans and back over time. Forty-one percent either describe themselves as very conservative, conservative, or somewhat conservative compared to the 25% who say they are very liberal, liberal, or somewhat liberal. Broken down by generation, there is a distinct pattern where we can see older Catholics being more conservative and younger Catholics less so. However, rather than liberals supplanting conservatives among younger Catholics it is more likely that they identify as middle of the road or not sure of their political ideology.

Turning to media use, among Catholics overall, 80% use social media daily and 67% watch television news. Fewer, 34% reads a daily newspaper and 34% listens to news radio daily. There are significant differences by generation for media use. Ninety-five percent of Gen-Z uses social media daily. Daily social media use decreases with each older generation from 87% of Millennials to 62% of Silent Generation Catholics. Only Silent Generation and Baby Boomer Catholics are more likely to use something other than social media daily and that is watching news on television (83% and 75%, respectively). Perhaps surprisingly, there is fairly consistent use of newspaper readership (including online) and listening to news on the radio across generation.  

We next explore recent life events. Millennial Catholics are the most likely of any Catholic generation to marry and have had a child in the year before they were surveyed (6% and  8.8%, respectively). Gen-Z is the next most likely to have had a child during this time (4.3%) and Gen-X is the most likely to have married (4.7%). Divorce in the last year is uncommon among all generations with Millennials being the most likely to experience this in the year before being surveyed (1.5%). 

While doctor exams are rarer for young Catholics than older Catholics, emergency rooms visits in a year are made by about one in five Catholics regardless of age. Silent Generation Catholics are the outlier with 29% having visited the emergency room in the year before being surveyed. Overall, about 3% of adult Catholics have been a victim of a crime in the year before they were surveyed. This occurred most frequently among Millennial Catholics (4.4%) and least often among Silent Generation Catholics (0.9%).

Looking a bit at economic indicators next that may be impacting younger Americans. Overall, 15% of adult Catholics have student debt, 13% wouldn’t be able to pay for an emergency expense of $400 right now, and 15% have earned money by taking jobs through a website or mobile app in the last year (i.e., gig work). Younger Catholics are more likely to have student debt with a third of Gen-Z reporting this. Seventeen percent of Gen-X Catholics indicate they wouldn't be able to pay for an emergency expense right now. The likelihood of doing gig work is highest among Millennials (25%) and Gen-Z (32%).

Finally, we examine self-reported health. Most Catholics, 83%, describe their health as good to excellent. Just 17% describe it as fair or poor. Fifty-nine percent of Gen-Z say their health is excellent or very good as do 53% of Millennial Catholics. By comparison (and not shown in the figure below), 48% of non-Catholic Gen-Z adults say their health is excellent or very good as 42% of Millennial non-Catholics (note: we’ve examined similar differences in a previous post). Even among the oldest generation of Catholics, the Silent Generation, 83%, describe their health as good to excellent.

To put all the analysis above in population figures we provide the size summary for each adult Catholic generation in 2024. These estimates are derived from averaging the generational sizes from the CES and GSS in 2024 and then applying the appropriate Census estimates for the 2024 adult population. 

The largest generation of Catholics is the Baby Boomers, comprising 33% of adult Catholics (17.2 million people). This is followed by Gen-X, comprising 25% of adult Catholics (13.1 million people). Millennials are similar in size to Gen-X comprising 24% of adult Catholics (12.7 million people). As mentioned above, we can only see part of Gen-Z currently and in 2024 they comprised 13% of adult Catholics (7.1 million people). The Silent Generation makes up 5% of adult Catholics (2.8 million people). These total do not include Catholics younger than 18 or older than 94 in 2024.


For more about the data:

Methods for CES: https://tischcollege.tufts.edu/research-faculty/research-centers/cooperative-election-study/about-methodology

Methods for the GSS: https://gss.norc.org/get-documentation.html

Black Catholics in the United States

This post was researched and written by Ali Mumbach at CARA.

As we round out Black History Month, CARA felt it would be good to share some insights on the population of the Church that is celebrated during this month. Data from the General Social Survey (GSS) and the Cooperative Election Study (CES) indicate the Black Catholic population as being quite stable over the past five decades at approximately 1% of the U.S. adult population. On average, in these national surveys, approximately 5% of adult Catholics in the United States self-identify their race as Black or African American. About 7.5% of Black or African Americans in the U.S. self-identify their religion as Catholic. With 1% of the U.S. adult population self identifying as Black and Catholic, this represents about 2.8 million individuals in 2026. Important to note is that the term “Black Catholic,” encompasses the whole diaspora of African and African-descended peoples – African Americans, African immigrants, Afro-Latinos, and Afro-Caribbeans. Black Catholics are far from monolithic in their cultural expressions and experiences of the faith and society.

Within the Black Catholic population, 55% are men and 45% are women. The average age of Black Catholics is around 44 years old, and the median (middle-most) age is 40. The largest generational cohort of Black Catholics is the Millenials, making up 43% of the population. They are followed by the Boomers at 22%, Gen X at 18%, Gen Z at 17%, and the Silent Generation at less than 1%. These statistics came as a surprise to this author. The youngest cohorts make up 60% of the Black Catholic population? As a Black Catholic young adult myself, when I go into Black Catholic spaces, I don’t see many Millenials or Gen Zers. I see Boomers and Gen X. This begs the question - where are the young people? And not in the perennial sense of the question about young people disaffiliating from religion - the data shows that in this case, they haven’t. Black Catholic young adults make up the largest portion of Black Catholics. Yet we often don’t see them. What does this mean? Sounds like an opportunity for research to me… 

Black Catholics live predominantly in the South, with over half of the group residing in this region of the country (55%). Louisiana is known for having the highest population of Black Catholic churches. About one in five Black Catholics lives in the Northeast (21%). Slightly more than one in ten Black Catholics lives in the West (13%) or Midwest (11%). When considering political party affiliation, Black Catholics lean heavily Democrat with about three in five affiliating with the party (59%). Republicans make up 13% of the population, Independents are 22%, and 1% identify as Other.

Looking at religious behaviors of Black Catholics, we find that they have a higher Mass attendance than the overall Catholic population. Forty percent of Black Catholics attend Mass at least once a week or more which is significantly more than the 26% of overall Catholics who attend Mass at that frequency. Additionally, over half of Black Catholics pray once a day or more (55%), whereas less than half of the overall Catholic population prays at the same frequency (47%). Black Catholics demonstrate a strong commitment to the faith they believe in, even as dioceses disproportionately close Black Catholic parishes and schools.

And as the 100^th anniversary of Black History Month comes to a close, I found some relevant questions to look at in the 2024 CES dataset that relate to race and racism. In fact, they touch on topics that an upcoming CARA national survey will also be exploring. In the CES survey, respondents were asked to what degree they agreed with the following seven statements, which are presented in the tables below. Respondents could rate “strongly agree,” “somewhat agree,” “neither agree nor disagree,” “somewhat disagree,” or “strongly disagree.” For the purposes of this analysis, “strongly agree” and “somewhat agree” were combined to create “agree,” while “strongly disagree” and “somewhat disagree” were combined to create “disagree.” Analysis was restricted to those who selected as their race “Black or African American” and “White.” This would include those who self-identified as both non-Hispanic and Hispanic White. Below are the findings from the analysis. 

Eighty percent of Black Catholics agree that there are privileges that come with having white skin. White Catholics are less than half as likely as Black Catholics to agree with this statement (38%). White Catholics also are almost six times more likely than Black Catholics to disagree with this statement (41% compared to 7%).

For this statement (presented above), more than twice as many White Catholics (36%) agree as Black Catholics (14%). Additionally, there is a 22-point difference in disagreement of the statement between the two groups.

The figures below reveal additional differences in opinions between Black and White Catholics.

The findings of this analysis demonstrate that Black and White Catholics differ significantly on their beliefs about race and racism, and how these have played a role in the opportunities and experiences of African Americans. The goal of this post is not to create greater division within the Body of Christ, but rather to illuminate how wide the chasm is in acknowledgement and understanding. The Catholic Church has a very definitive teaching on racism – it is an evil and a sin. One can reference bishops’ letters such as Open Wide Our Hearts and Brothers and Sisters to Us, and manifold other resources to learn about Church teaching on racism. However, we can also look at the history of the treatment of Black people and Black Catholics in the U.S. Catholic Church, and easily identify ways that the Church instituted and perpetuated this sin against its own members. In this period of synodality and listening to the marginalized, these responses from Black Catholics are saying a lot. It is out of love and commitment to the gospel that the Church is responsible to listen. Happy Black History Month!

Note: The 2024 CES includes 497 Black Catholic respondents (unweighted) and 7,470 White Catholics among its overall 59,940 total respondents.