According to the General Social Survey (GSS), for more than five decades, about a third of American adults have been Catholic at some point in their lives. Yet, the percentage who were baptized Catholic as minors who self-identify as Catholic now as adults is 20%. This averaged about 25% from the 1970s to the late 2010s.
The share of the adult population we might call “former Catholics” has measured, on average, 12% of the U.S. adult population since 2010. This represented 33.6 million adults in 2024. I have highlighted the share who is converting into Catholicism elsewhere. It is often widely noted that the numbers becoming former Catholics thus, outweighs those who convert in. The total aggregated number of converts as of 2024 represented 6.3 million adults in the United States.
How does the math work when there are 5 former Catholics for every 1 convert? How does the Catholic share of the population stay afloat at or above 20%, on average? A combination of new cradle Catholics coming of age each year plus the reverts, former Catholics later returning to the Church, and finally immigration of Catholics from other countries.
Some of the more naïve observers seem to only “do the math” on baptisms and exits without considering the fact that some only remain former Catholics for a time before returning to the faith and that Catholicism is a global faith and most don’t live in the United States. Some of these Catholics end up immigrating to the U.S. every year. There are no expectations these dynamics will change in the near future.
Looking at the three Catholic related groups, who made up 35% of the population in 2024, we can see some distinct patterns.
Race, Ethnicity, and Place of Birth
The share of cradle Catholics self-identifying their race and ethnicity as non-Hispanic white has been decreasing. In the GSS conducted in the 2000s, 61% of cradle Catholics self-identified as non-Hispanic white. This declined to 54% in the surveys conducted so far in the 2020s. This sub-group of the population is increasingly Hispanic or Latino (33% in 2000s compared to 38% in the 2020s). The racial and ethnic composition of former Catholics has been stable in the last three decades with nearly two-thirds self-identifying as non-Hispanic white and more than a quarter as Hispanic or Latino. Three quarters or more of Catholic converts self-identify as non-Hispanic white in the last three decades.
The share of cradle Catholics reporting their place of birth outside of the United States has increased from 15% in the 1970s to 25% in the 2002s. Eight percent of former Catholics were foreign-born in the 1970s. This has increased to 17% in the 2020s. Converts have also increasingly indicated they are foreign born (3% in the 1970s compared to 11% in the 2020s).
Gender
Cradle Catholics and former Catholics are nearly evenly split female and male since the 1970s. Catholic converts are another story. Converts have been disproportionately female since the 1970s. In the 1970s 57% of Catholic converts were female and 43% male. In the 2020s, 59% have been female and 41% male. Why are more women converting to Catholicism than men? One hypothesis is related to marriage. CARA previously explored the connection between marriage between Catholics and non-Catholics and later conversion. This has been one of the most common reasons for conversion. It remains unclear why women marrying may be more likely to change their faith than men. More research is needed to understand this. Yet, if there is something to this hypothesis, we should also see this show up in the data on marital status.
Marital Status
Cradle Catholics and former Catholics have looked similar to Americans in general when it comes to marital status. In the 1970s and 1980s, approximately six in ten said they were married and a quarter never married. Over time the share who are married has declined to 53% of cradle Catholics and 50% of former Catholics in the 2020s. In this decade, 27% of cradle Catholics and 32% of former Catholics have never married. By comparison, nearly six in ten or more Catholic converts have been married every decade since the 1970s. The share of never married Catholic converts is growing but is not at the same level as the rest of the U.S. adult population. In the 2020s, 63% of Catholic converts have been married, 5% widowed, 2% separated, and 8% divorced.
Region
Another area where Catholic converts stand out is in the region of residence. Over time, conversion to Catholicism has become more of a Southern thing. In the 1970s, 16% of Catholic converts resided in the South. In the 2020s, 45% of converts reside in this region. The region seeing the biggest declines in converts is the Midwest. Forty percent of Catholic converts resided here in the 1970s. In the 2020s, 20% of coverts were Midwesterners.
The Switch
Since the 1970s, Catholic converts have been more likely to come from other Christian faiths than any other religious identity. However, since 2000, one in five or more converts have had no religious affiliation (i.e., "Nones") previously. Very few convert from Judaism, Islam, Buddhism, or some other religion.
On the other side, most former Catholics now are shifting into having no religious affiliation (60% in the 2020s). In the 2020s, a third of former Catholics are becoming members of other Christian faiths.
About Those “Nones”
One could have spoken about a “rise of the Nones” as early as the 1970s in the United States. In 1972, we have the first observation of U.S, adults self-identifying the religion as no affiliation in the GSS at 5% or above. This percentage remained below 10% until 1994 in the GSS. This began to shift upward again in 2000 and appears to have reached another plateau in 2020. The average aggregated estimate today is that 24% of U.S. adults say they don’t have a religious affiliation.
While some may assume the “Nones” shun religious beliefs, the reality is quite different. For example, 32% of adults without a religious affiliation in the 2020s say they believe in God at least sometimes (15% without doubts). Twenty-percent say they do not believe in God and 22% say they don’t know and there is no way to find out. Twenty-six percent believe in a “higher power.” Those who don’t believe in God or don’t know have grown collectively from 32% of those without an affiliation in the 2000s to 42% in the 2020s.
It’s important for the Catholic Church to understand what is going on among those without a religious affiliation. It is now the most common destination for former Catholics. Thus, it may also be the most common group Catholics “revert” from. More research is needed to understand these dynamics. We do understand it is the group from which one-fifth of those who convert to Catholicism come from.
The mid-2020s seem to be an interesting period of religious change and churn in the United States. The Catholic Church remains an important part of these shifts.
