This post is a collaboration between CARA Senior Research Associate Mark M. Gray and Rubén Rodríguez Barrón, a Ph.D. student at the University of Chicago.
Over the past year, anecdotes about a surge in conversions to Catholicism in the United States have been widespread. We've seen and heard of packed OCIA classes, record numbers at Easter Vigil, and especially large increases among young adults have fueled speculation that something significant is underway in 2025.
What does the data say? For now, the honest answer is: not much yet.
Dioceses will not begin reporting their 2025 sacramental data until early 2026, and those figures will not be publicly available until the release of the 2026 Official Catholic Directory (OCD) later that summer or fall. Any claims about nationwide conversion trends in 2025 are therefore necessarily anecdotal.
That said, we can place those anecdotes in context by looking carefully at recent historical data (i.e., including all U.S. Latin Rite territorial arch/dioceses, the Personal Ordinariate of the Chair of St. Peter, and the Diocese of St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands). Using diocesan reports from OCD, we can examine how entries into the Catholic Church have changed over the past decade, how the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted those patterns, and where recent numbers appear to be exceeding prior expectations. We can also explore how much these trends vary across dioceses and how they differ when we focus specifically on adult entrants rather than total baptisms.
What follows does not answer whether 2025 represents a true turning point. But it does clarify what would count as evidence of one, and what the most recent data already suggest.
National Trends in Entries into the Church
In 2015, there were approximately 834,000 entries into the Catholic Church in the United States. These entries include infant baptisms, minor baptisms, adult baptisms, and receptions into full communion for those previously baptized in other Christian traditions.
From 2013 through 2019, total entries declined steadily, falling by roughly 30,000 per year on average (much of this decline is related to a drop in birth rates in the U.S.).
This downward trend was already well established before the COVID-19 pandemic began.
Then came the pandemic. Parish closures, delayed sacraments, and widespread disruption made normal participation difficult or impossible for extended periods of time. As a result, interpreting sacramental data during these years requires caution.
By 2022, total entries had returned to roughly the level one would expect if the pre-pandemic decline had continued uninterrupted. In 2023 and again in 2024, however, the number of entries rose above that projected trajectory.
Whether this represents the emergence of a new trend or simply a period of catch-up following pandemic disruptions remains unclear.
Total Entries into the Catholic Church in the United States, 2013–2024 (click to see larger size)
Where Are New Entrants Coming From?
Looking only at national totals can obscure important local variation. Unsurprisingly, archdioceses with the largest Catholic populations also tend to report the largest numbers of entrants. Population size matters.
That said, some dioceses stand out as clear outliers. Fresno and Miami, for example, rank far lower in total Catholic population than many other dioceses yet appear among the top ten in total entrants. Conversely, dioceses such as Phoenix and San Diego, which have very large Catholic populations, fall outside the top ten in raw entry counts.
These discrepancies suggest that population size alone does not fully explain where new entries are occurring.
Adjusting for Population Size
One way to account for population differences is to examine entries per 1,000 Catholics. This shifts attention away from sheer size and toward relative intensity.
It is important to note a limitation here. Catholic population figures reported in the OCD are estimates, and dioceses vary widely in how frequently and accurately they update them. Some dioceses report identical population figures year after year, while others make abrupt revisions. These inconsistencies can meaningfully affect per-capita calculations and should be kept in mind when interpreting rankings.
Focusing on Adult Entrants
Much of the recent anecdotal attention has focused specifically on adults entering the Church. Adult baptisms and receptions into full communion offer a narrower but more targeted lens on conversion. In raw numbers, large dioceses once again dominate.
However, when we adjust for population size, the pattern closely resembles what we saw for total entries per 1,000 Catholics.
The same dioceses tend to appear repeatedly, suggesting that places with high overall entry intensity also tend to see relatively strong adult participation.
Infant and Minor Baptisms Relative to Adult Entries
Another way to examine diocesan differences is to compare the number of infant and minor baptisms to the number of adult baptisms and receptions into full communion.
Nationally, dioceses average roughly six infant and minor baptisms for every one adult entry. Some dioceses fall well below that ratio, while others far exceed it.
Lower ratios indicate dioceses where adult entries make up a larger share of total sacramental life. Higher ratios often reflect demographic factors such as high birth rates rather than weak adult evangelization. Large arch/dioceses like Los Angeles and Fresno fall into this latter category and should not be interpreted negatively on this measure alone.
At the same time, arch/dioceses such as Wheeling-Charleston, Palm Beach, and Oklahoma City appear as notable outliers, combining relatively strong adult entry with substantial infant and minor baptisms. These cases merit closer attention.
Conclusion
So, are people flocking to Catholicism in the United States?
The available data do not yet allow us to answer that question definitively. What they do show is a more nuanced and interesting picture than either optimism or skepticism alone would suggest.
After years of steady decline prior to the pandemic, total entries into the Church returned to their expected trajectory by 2022 and then exceeded that trajectory in 2023 and 2024. Whether this reflects delayed participation during COVID or the beginning of a new pattern remains uncertain.
At the diocesan level, the story is uneven. Some dioceses appear to be experiencing something genuinely distinctive, while others look much as they have for years. Differences in population size, demographics, and institutional structure all shape what entry patterns look like on the ground.
When the 2025 data are finally released, they will matter not because they confirm a headline, but because they will tell us whether recent increases represent a short-term rebound or a more durable shift in how people are entering the Catholic Church in the United States.
For now, the prudent conclusion is simple: something may be happening, but the data are still catching up.
