After Life

Social scientists often focus on the share of people who believe in God as a barometer for religiosity. Yet, for salvation religions, a belief in the afterlife is also centrally important. What may be surprising to some is that significantly sized segments of Christians—including Catholics—believe in God but not in heaven and even fewer in hell. For someone who does not believe in an afterlife what does it matter if they only go to Mass on Christmas and Easter? How does sin matter at all? What is a saint?

The table below shows results from the Pew Research Center’s most recent Religious Landscape Survey (2014). Among those self-identifying as Catholic, 97% say they believe in God but only 85% believe in heaven and 63% in hell. Similar “gaps” in belief are evident among Protestants, Mormons, Orthodox Christians, and Muslim Americans. Surprisingly, even nearly half of agnostics say they believe in God (46%) yet only 14% believe in heaven and 9% in hell.

Oddly, if one looks at polling data from a historical perspective and among the total population belief in the afterlife, both heaven and hell, steadily increased from the 1950s to the 2000s. In only the last few years has belief in both begun to dip again. Still, more Americans believe in an afterlife now than they did decades ago (…another empirical reflection of the 1950s being no “golden age” for religion).

There is one caveat to the data presented above. Even fewer Americans believe in heaven and hell if you try to describe those two places. For example, estimates of belief fall a bit when Pew describes hell as a place “where people who have led bad lives and die without being sorry are eternally punished.” Perhaps some feel hell isn’t this bad?

The Catholic Church, like Pew’s question writers, is pretty clear in its description of hell. According to the Catechism, “The teaching of the Church affirms the existence of hell and its eternity. Immediately after death the souls of those who die in a state of mortal sin descend into hell, where they suffer the punishments of hell, ‘eternal fire.’”

By contrast, the Church teaches that, “The perfect life with the Most Holy Trinity—this communion of life and love with the Trinity, with the Virgin Mary, the angels, and all the blessed—is called ‘heaven.’” Further the Church describes, “This mystery of blessed communion with God and all who are in Christ is beyond all understanding and description. Scripture speaks of it in images: life, light, peace, wedding feast, wine of the kingdom, the Father’s house, the heavenly Jerusalem, paradise.” And then of course there is purgatory. This is described by the Church as a place for those who “die in God’s grace and friendship, but still imperfectly purified.”

There is one survey from 2010 that I could locate and study that combined the three possibilities of heaven, purgatory, or hell into one response. As shown below, nearly three in four Catholic adults agreed that these destinations are most likely where people go after dying (73%). Evangelical Christians were more likely to agree (91%) and those with no religious affiliation (aggregating “Nones,” agnostics, and atheists) were least likely to do so (27%).

One of the few things Americans agree on, regardless of religious affiliation, is that we don’t “become ghosts” after we die. This is also somewhat odd as Gallup surveys indicate about 40% of American adults believe in ghosts! Maybe this is state of being only reserved for a few unlucky souls?

A CBS News survey from 2014 asked American adults who believed in heaven and hell (77% of their respondents), “At the end of your life, where do you think you are most likely to wind up—in heaven or in hell or neither one?” Eighty-two percent believe they are going to heaven and only 2% believe they are going to hell (16% said “neither” or they didn’t know). In 2012, a 60 Minutes/Vanity Fair poll asked respondents, “Assuming they both exist, which do you think is more important for the human race—Heaven, to reward the good, or Hell, to punish the evil?” Eighty percent said we need heaven more than hell. Ten percent chose hell, 4% said we need both equally and 5% didn’t know.

Perhaps the best indicator of the future of belief in heaven and hell among U.S. Catholics is to look at what young Catholic parents believe today. After all their beliefs are likely to be passed on to their children. CARA recently surveyed self-identified Catholics, ages 25 to 45, who are currently parents to minor children. As shown below, about two-thirds believe in heaven and hell without doubt (65%). About one in ten believes in heaven without doubt but has doubts about or does not believe in hell (11%). Nearly a quarter have doubts about or do not believe in both heaven and hell (23%).

Although belief in heaven and hell now exceeds levels of belief of the more distant past, there is still this puzzling gap between American’s belief in God and their belief about what happens after life. We have examined before how this is correlated with frequency of Mass attendance and confession among Catholics. The lack of belief in an afterlife among some Catholics may represent a “soft” form of secularization—a segment that may be more likely to leave the faith in the future. A majority of Americans who do not believe in an afterlife have no religious affiliation (54%).

One final piece of data. The General Social Survey has been asking a more generic afterlife question since the early 1970s. Rather than asking about heaven or hell or trying to describe these, it simply inquires, “Do you believe there is a life after death?” Here we can see something interesting. Among all religiously affiliated American adults who are not Catholic, belief in life after death is increasing slightly over time. Yet, among Catholics, the trend line has been sloping downward since 2010. Religiously unaffiliated adults are also losing belief in an afterlife.

Seventeenth century mathematician Blaise Pascal put the afterlife at the center of his “wager” and argument for belief in God. With eternal paradise or punishment on the line it makes sense to live a good life now given the inevitability of death. A rational person would have to be absolutely sure hell was not an option to do otherwise. If he were alive today I think Pascal would be puzzled by the number of American Christians who believe in God but not an afterlife. He’d also likely wonder a bit about the atheists and agnostics who believe in heaven. But then again, being dead he has already seen the payoff to his wager.

Image courtesy of peppergrasss.

Where Will Your Final Resting Place Be?

Yesterday was All Souls’ Day. You may have thought about and prayed for lost loved ones. You may have even thought about your own eventual death. What will happen to you? Will you have a vigil service? A funeral liturgy? Rite of Committal? You may fully intend to have a traditional Catholic funeral and burial. But will it happen? Well it really isn’t up to you.

When I am reporting on or making presentations about Catholic sacramental and practice data, one of the most common concerns I hear from priests is not related to baptisms or marriages. It is funerals. I hear a similar story over and over. An elderly member of the parish has passed and their kids decide to forgo the Catholic funeral and burial against the deceased parent’s wishes. They don’t feel comfortable at a funeral Mass. They think everything about the funeral and burial is too costly. They don’t see the point and their parent has passed. “They’ll never know” …and then mom gets cremated and takes her place on the mantle at home. At least at Christmas time the Elf on a Shelf is nearby.

Statistically speaking, if you go by the Church’s numbers, death is becoming less common among Catholics in the United States. If the trends in funerals and deaths recorded in Catholic parishes from the 21st century continue, no deaths of Catholics will be recorded after 2087. That doesn’t mean the Church will have found the fountain of youth in the Diocese of Orlando. Catholics still die at the same rate as non-Catholics, they just aren’t getting a Catholic funeral and burial in a Catholic cemetery like they used to.

According to the Center for Disease Control’s Vital Statistics reports, in 2013, there were 2,596,993 deaths in the United States. If one applies the very stable adult Catholic affiliation percentage to that total (assuming Catholics are no less or more likely to die then the overall population), we would expect there to have been approximately 610,293 Catholic deaths in that year. In 2013, U.S. Catholic pastors reported 402,963 deaths in The Official Catholic Directory. Thus, we can assume about 66% of Catholics who died in that year were likely to have received a Catholic wake, liturgy, and/or burial in a Catholic cemetery (i.e., Rite of Committal).

What happened to the other third of Catholics who passed away? Some are on the mantle. Others have their ashes scattered at a favorite beach or golf course. Maybe some are among those rumored to have their ashes scattered on the Haunted House ride at Disneyland?

The decline in funerals is not limited to the Catholic Church. The National Funeral Directors Association (NFDA) reports that the number of funeral homes in the United States has declined by 10% since 2004 (-2,137 sites). Some of this decline may be related to the economy. The median cost of an adult funeral and burial has increased by 29% since 2004 to a total of $8,508. The median costs for cremation is less, $6,078. More Americans are choosing cremation over burial and this trend is expected to continue and become more frequent.

According to the NFDA, in 2005, 61% of deceased in the U.S. were buried and 32% were cremated. By 2030, the NFDA expects those numbers to flip in the other direction with more than 7 in 10 deceased being cremated.

I searched the polling archives for questions about burial and cremation to see if I could isolate Catholic preferences. Oddly, pollsters appear to shy away from asking respondents what they want to happen to their body when they die. There is one CBS/Vanity Fair national poll from 2012 which asks, “If you had the chance to peek in on your own funeral, what would you be most curious about? How many people show up, if there are any surprise visitors, how you look in the casket, or what people say about you?” Catholics, like most others, said they would want to hear what people say about them (53%) followed by wanting to see how many people show up (24%). Only 2% would want to see themselves in the casket.

According to Church law, “The Church earnestly recommends the pious custom of burying the bodies of the dead be observed, it does not however, forbid cremation unless it has been chosen for reasons which are contrary to Christian teaching” (Canon 1176). If Catholics choose cremation, they are required to have their ashes buried or have an urn placed in a crypt, niche, or other approved above-ground option at the cemetery. You can’t have your ashes blasted into space or made into jewelry. Mom or dad probably didn’t want that anyway.  

Mantle photo courtesy of Aime Fedora.

When the Pope Visits

How different is the Catholic Church in the United States that Pope Francis will visit in September from the Church his predecessors visited? Pope Paul VI was first to visit the United States in 1965. Pope John Paul II visited seven times between 1979 and 1999, however, two of these trips were short stopovers in Alaska in 1981 and 1984. Pope Benedict XVI visited in 2008. The figures below provide some detail about what the Catholic Church and the Catholic population were like during papal visits (where data are available).

The Church reports annual statistics in The Official Catholic Directory. The most recent release is the 2015 OCD which includes totals for 2014. The tables below show data for the year they represent (i.e., not the publication year as reported on our frequently requested stats page) and include only the fifty states, the District of Columbia, and the U.S. Virgin Islands (i.e., excluding other U.S. territories totaled in the OCD).

The clergy and vowed religious “workforce” of the Church in the United States is 57% smaller than it was in 1965 with about 144,000 fewer in ministry (note that some counted below are retired). Most of these losses have come among religious sisters and nuns. There are also about 21,000 fewer priests (diocesan and religious) now than in 1965 while the workforce has also experienced the addition of more than 18,000 permanent deacons.

Numbers for Lay Ecclesial Ministers (LEMs) are not tracked year to year by the Church. In 1990, there were approximately 21,500 of these individuals who were “adequately formed and prepared lay persons, authorized by the hierarchy to serve publicly in leadership for a particular area of ministry, in close mutual collaboration with clergy.” In 2015, there were an estimated 39,500 LEMs in parish ministry in the United States. Married Catholics, as LEMs or as permanent deacons, are more present now in parish ministry than they were in decades past.

The number of parishes in the United States now is very similar to what it was in 1965. In 1988, the number of parishes peaked nationally at 19,705. Since then the Church has closed or consolidated parishes (as well as open new parishes) for a net decline of 2,368 parishes (-12%).

Where are parishes closing? More often in the Midwest and Northeast than elsewhere. Bishops must balance the number of available priests with the needs of the Catholic population (see our previous post). They do this while also evaluating the changing demographics of their diocese. As shown in the figure below, the share of the Catholic population residing in the Northeast and Midwest has been in decline since the 1970s. The Catholic population is now more evenly divided among these four regions. In the coming decades, if current trends continue, it will become more and more a “southern” Church.

As these population shifts have occurred, the Catholic Church’s U.S. parishes, many built to serve urban immigrants of the distant past, are increasingly misaligned with the 21st century Catholic population. The brick and mortar of the Church is slow to “move.” The Midwest has 37 percent of parishes and just 22 percent of the self-identified Catholic population. By comparison, the West has only 15 percent of parishes and 26 percent of the Catholic population. The Church is closing parishes where they are not viable but is behind a bit in its building of new parishes where they are needed most.

If the next papal visit were to best meet the new demography of the Church in the United States it would happen in the Archdiocese of Galveston-Houston in Texas, which has added more parish-affiliated Catholics in the last decade than any other U.S. Arch/diocese. There are fewer parish-affiliated Catholics in the Archdiocese of Philadelphia now than in 2005 (about 33,300 fewer or a decline of -2.3%). The Arch/dioceses losing Catholic population in the largest numbers in the last decade include Brooklyn (-275,600), Detroit (-237,000), Pittsburgh (-167,900), and Chicago (-157,000). The fastest growing are Galveston-Houston (+667,600), Atlanta (+633,000), Fresno (+619,000), and Phoenix (+589,900).

Overall, the self-identified Catholic population has grown steadily in the United States. Some of this is related to immigration. According to the General Social Survey (GSS), just 13% of Catholics were foreign-born in 1977. This share had climbed to 28% by 2014. Yet, immigration has also been a relatively constant long-term factor in Catholic population changes. For example, the Harris 1967 Survey of Catholics reported that 32% of Catholic adults at that time had all four of their grandparents born in the United States. In 2014, the GSS indicated this figure was 29% (by comparison this is 64% among non-Catholic adults in the same year). One big difference between then and now is the source of immigration. In 1984, 26% of adult Catholics said they were of Irish ancestry and 17% of Italian ancestry. These figures have fallen to 17% and 12% respectively in 2014, and now more Catholics say they are of Mexican ancestry than any other specific nationality (23%).   

The size of Catholic families has also declined. According to the GSS, 47% of Catholics of the World War II Generation (born 1901 to 1924) had five or more siblings. Among Baby Boomers (born 1943 to 1960) 31% had these many brothers and sisters. Only 19% of Catholic Millennials (born 1982 or later) have five or more siblings. We can see shifts in births in the Church’s baptism numbers.

Birthrates were significantly higher when Pope Paul VI visited in 1965 and it is no surprise that there were more entries into the faith in that year than other papal visit years. Last year, about 870,000 new Catholics entered the Church in the United States. There were 160,376 fewer infant and child baptisms in 2014 than in 2008 when Pope Benedict XVI visited.

Of course not everyone who joins the Catholic Church remains Catholic throughout their life. We don’t have comparable survey data for 1967 but the GSS gives a view of how baptized Catholics have lived out their faith (the GSS was not fielded in 1979, 1995, or 1999. However, in each case a survey was conducted the year before and after. We’ve averaged these results to come up with estimates for those visit years).

The figure below, shows how the adult population of those raised Catholic, who self-identify as Catholic, who attend Mass at least once a month, and who are former Catholics has changed during visit years since 1979. All of the trends except Mass attendance are increasing (…weekly attendance, not shown below, has declined from 41% of adult Catholics in 1977 to 24% in 2014. In absolute numbers, given population growth, this means there were an estimated 16.8 million weekly attenders in 1979 and 15.1 in 2014). Perhaps the most disconcerting trend is the increasing numbers of former Catholics who were raised in the faith but who have since left. This population is now nearly as numerous as adult Catholics who attend Mass at least once a month.

The precipitating reason for Pope Francis’ visit is to attend the World Meeting of Families, but no sacrament is in a steeper decline in the U.S. than marriage. In 1965, there were 355,182 marriages celebrated in the Catholic Church. By comparison, in 2014, only 148,134 were celebrated in the U.S. This represents a decline of 58%. Catholics are more often choosing civil ceremonies at country clubs, the beach, or other sites. The practice of marriage as a sacrament is becoming less common. Yet, something else has changed as well. In 1965, about seven in ten adult Catholics were married and only about one in five had never married. In 2014, just more than half are married and more than a quarter have never married. The percentage of those who are divorced has increased from 4% to 12%. Marriage, in general, is becoming more rare.

Among U.S. Catholic parents with minor children, 79% are married. Thirteen percent are unmarried and living with a partner. Eight percent are either divorced, separated or widowed.

CARA survey research indicates that only about 15% of divorced Catholics in the U.S. seek an annulment. As the number of marriages have declined so too has the number of annulments sought. About eight in ten of the U.S. Catholics who introduce an annulment case receive a decree of nullity (some do not and others do not complete the process).

The Catholic Church in the United States that Pope Francis visits in September is quite different from the one his predecessors visited. There are new challenges and opportunities here. The number of new diocesan priestly ordinations has increased slightly since Pope Francis was elected (515 in 2014). There has also been an increase in adults entering the faith in the past couple of years (109,891 in 2014). Yet many young Catholics drift away from the faith to become unaffiliated and marriage in the Church is in steady decline. The Church is institutionally underdeveloped where the Catholic population is growing most rapidly and it is overbuilt in areas of decline. 

When Parishes Outnumber Priests

The Official Catholic Directory 2015 indicates that the shortfall between the number of active diocesan priests and the number of parishes in the United States remains entrenched despite 515 new ordinations in 2014 (...up from 494 in 2013). Nationally (including the Diocese of St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands and all Eastern Rite arch/eparchies in the U.S.), there are 16,462 active diocesan priests and 17,324 parishes. Thus, there are currently 862 more parishes than active diocesan priests. You would have to go back more than a decade, to 2004, to find a year in which the total number of these clergy was larger than the number of parishes.

Of course not every parish needs an active diocesan priest (...It is also the case that not all priests are called to parish ministry). Religious priests serve as pastors and significant numbers of international priests have come to the United States to minister in parishes in recent decades. Priests from other U.S. dioceses (externs) and retired priests often help out as well. When no priest is available, bishops can utilize Canon 517.2 and entrust the pastoral care of a parish to a permanent deacon, religious sister or brother, or other lay person. These parish life coordinators (PLCs) minister, manage, and arrange for priests to come to the parish for Masses and sacraments.

Which dioceses have the most parishes relative to their number of active diocesan priests? Nine of the top ten are in the Midwest. For example, the Diocese of Green Bay reports 64 active diocesan priests and 157 parishes. In all, 81 parishes here are without a resident pastor. Forty-five of the diocese’s parishes have a non-resident pastor and in 36 parishes pastoral care has been entrusted to a deacon or lay person. Nineteen of these parishes are entrusted to deacons, ten to religious sisters, and seven to other lay persons.

Why would Midwestern dioceses be more likely to have fewer active diocesan priests than parishes? This region of the country used to be a population center for American Catholicism. However as many industrial parts of this region began to transform into the “rust belt” many moved to where the jobs were in the “sun belt.” In other words, the Catholics moved and the parishes remained. They still serve a sizable Catholic population but it is one that is aging. Many young adults raised in the region leave for the coasts or the South. Over time, smaller populations will lead to fewer ordinations. 

Geography is important in other ways as well. In rural America it can be difficult to use multi-parish ministry where a pastor or other ministers work in multiple parishes. In urban areas, a priest may find it possible to be a resident pastor in one parish and a non-resident pastor in another (…or more). When you are dealing with parishes separated by vast fields of corn or soybeans things become a bit more difficult. Closing a parish may also be undesirable if it still serves a community who may not easily travel to the next nearest parish. In some dioceses, bishops use PLCs to keep parishes open and in others they are less likely to do so.

Nationally, there are 369 parishes entrusted to PLCs under Canon 517.2 (note there are statistical discrepancies in the OCD regarding parish administration. See the note at the bottom of this post. This total represents CARA’s corrections to these data). The number of parishes entrusted to deacons or a lay person peaked at 566 in 2004. This came fifteen years after the number of parishes overall peaked in the U.S. at 19,705 in 1989. Since that time the Church in the United States has reduced its total number of parishes by 2,381 nationally (a decline of 12%). 

Which dioceses have many more active diocesan priests than parishes? Half are in the Northeast and the rest are scattered about. The Archdiocese of Chicago has 579 active diocesan priests and 353 parishes. Yet even here, 26 parishes are without a resident pastor.

In the United States, there are more priests retiring or passing away each year than there are new ordinations. The decline in active diocesan priests is expected to continue for some time as are net losses of parishes each year. These two trends are not unrelated.

Currently there are 3,448 U.S. parishes without a resident pastor. Most, 89%, are administered by non-resident pastors. Four percent of parishes without a resident pastor are entrusted to a deacon, 3% to lay men or women, and 2% to a religious sister. Less than 1% each are entrusted to multiple individuals on a pastoral team or religious brothers. At any time a few parishes are vacant—a total of eight parishes when the data used here were collected.

In previous research for the Emerging Models of Pastoral Leadership project, CARA identified that the most important factor in determining how a diocese balances the equation of active diocesan priests and parishes is the bishop’s preferences. When necessary, some entrust parishes to deacons, vowed religious, or other lay persons; others rely on non-resident priest pastors; and some find closing parishes to be the only option.

The dioceses of Green Bay (WI), Superior (WI), and Albany (NY) have more than ten parishes where pastoral care is entrusted to deacons. The Diocese of Green Bay also has ten parishes entrusted to religious sisters. Albany, Indianapolis (IN), and Toledo (OH) each have seven parishes entrusted to women religious. Fairbanks (AK) has 15 parishes entrusted to lay men and women. Albany has nine parishes entrusted to lay people and Green Bay and Jackson (MS) have seven parishes each entrusted as such. In other dioceses like La Crosse (WI), Richmond (VA), and Winona (MN) there are numerous parishes without resident pastors but no Canon 517.2 parishes.


Note: The parish administration data for a number of dioceses do not “balance” in The Official Catholic Directory. This analysis has used all available information to provide accurate counts. For example, The Archdiocese of Indianapolis has 125 parishes. Ninety-seven of these parishes has a resident pastor. Additionally, 17 have a non-resident pastor. This totals 114 parishes meaning 11 other parishes must be entrusted to others under Canon 517.2. However, the Archdiocese reports that 20 parishes are entrusted to deacons, vowed religious, or other lay persons. Among these, nine parishes are reportedly entrusted to religious brothers. Yet, the diocese reports only one professional minister who is a religious brother and none of the parish listings indicate a religious brother is entrusted with a parish. CARA has made corrections to the OCD data in this post to be as accurate as possible.

[ _______ ], Hear Our Prayer...

"Who are you praying to?"
"God. Duh..."

At CARA we've asked a lot of questions about prayer over the years. But we never thought to ask more specifically about just who people are actually talking to. Now we know a bit more. CARA recently conducted a national poll of Catholic parents, ages 25 to 45, to explore the 21st Century Catholic family. This survey, completed in September and October 2014, includes interviews with 1,014 self-identified Catholic parents resulting in a sampling margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points. The research was made possible by Holy Cross Family Ministries.

Among the results on prayer, we learned this is a multilingual conversation with 40% of parents praying in Spanish and 59% in English. One percent pray in some other language (e.g., Polish, Portuguese). Seventy-one percent of parents agree “somewhat” or “strongly” that prayer is essential to their faith (80% among weekly Mass attenders) and most parents are regularly talking to God. Thirty-six percent of parents pray at least once a day. Another 23% pray less than daily but at least once a week. One in five pray less than weekly but at least once a month (20%). Twelve percent pray a few times a year. Only 9% say they rarely or never pray.

When asked why they may not pray regularly from time to time, parents were most likely to say the following explains their lack of prayer: busy schedule or lack of time (51% “somewhat’ or “very much”), having missed Mass (39%), or that prayer just did not cross their mind (39%).

When praying, a majority of parents say they “always” or “most of the time” are praying to God the Father (74%) or Jesus Christ (59%). Fewer indicate praying this often to the Holy Spirit (45%), Mary (44%), or the Holy Trinity (33%). Some pray to or ask the intercession of a guardian angel (31%), a deceased family member or friend (26%), a specific saint (22%), or saints on their feast days (16%), “always” or “most of the time” when they pray.

We also asked about when parents pray. In descending order, parents are most likely to “always” pray: during times of crisis (42%), when feeling anxious or depressed (34%), when feeling blessed (31%), before bed (26%), during Lent (18%), during Advent (18%), when they wake (13%), before meals (13%), and at family gatherings (10%).

That last result is remarkable as the data indicate there is no shortage of families gathering or dining together. More than half of parents say they eat together as a family every night (51%) and more than a third do so a few times a week (35%). Also, outside of these meals, 62% of parents say they gather for family time at least once a week (e.g., movie night, game night, discussions, prayer).

Although many aren't praying together as family they are often praying for their family. The most common reason for prayer among parents is for the wellbeing of their family. Eighty-three percent do this “most of the time” or “always” when they pray. A majority of parents say they are “always” or “most of the time” saying a specific Catholic prayer (57%) or simply talking to God when they pray (58%). Fewer than half pray this frequently for their own wellbeing (45%) or for world issues (41%). Nearly a third say that they reflect on something while praying (32%). About one in five meditate (22%) or discern something (20%). Fifteen percent “always” or “most of the time” participate in religious devotions while praying.

Parents are most likely to typically use the following while praying: the Bible (41%), Catholic prayer book(s) (39%), and other Catholic publications including prayers (33%). Most often they are using these resources in print rather than in electronic formats. Twenty-two percent of parents have at some point been involved in a Catholic small group that meets regularly for prayer, Bible study, or faith sharing. Twenty percent have participated in Eucharistic Adoration.

Sixteen percent of parents indicate that they have invited non-family members to their home to pray with their family at some point. Among those who have done so these instances most often are related to general household celebrations (58%), Advent or Christmas (47%), or a time when someone in the home or community was ill or passed away (43%).

Only 16% of parents pray the rosary at least once a month (7% at least once a week). Weekly Mass attenders are most likely to pray the rosary at least once a year (68%). Among those who do pray the rosary, half say they typically do so with their family (18% of all Catholic parents) and half do not (18% of all Catholic parents). Sixty-four percent of parents do not pray the rosary. Among these respondents the most common reasons cited for not doing so were having no desire or need to pray it (39%), never learning or forgetting how to say it (24%), and time issues (17%).

Most parents, 76%, say they more often pray by themselves than with family members. Seven percent say they more often pray with family members than alone and 17% pray alone and with family about equally. Parents who pray more alone most often say that they choose to do so because this is what they prefer (24%) or because of timing and scheduling conflicts that prevent them from praying with others (21%). In the words of respondents below are examples of some of the reasons cited for more often praying alone than with family:

• Because I like to do it alone. It makes me feel like I can be more open and honest and closer to God.
• My prayers seem like intimate conversations.
• Done at night, most of them already sleep.
• Kids weren’t baptized.
• Husband is atheist.
• As a child my family only prayed at holiday meals, which is when we do as a family.
• Kids are too little

Three additional sets of results that will be released soon. Stay tuned...
Image courtesy of Lawrence OP.

Fewer Marriages, Fewer Annulments... and a Demographic Twist

In the previous post, CARA released a new report on global trends in the Catholic Church since 1980. These data reveal that there were 1.4 million fewer marriages celebrated in the Church around the world in 2012 than in 1980 (2.7 million compared to 4.1 million or a decline of 34%). This occurred after the Catholic population had grown globally by 57%. Some might not also realize that fewer marriages have also resulted in fewer annulments. In 1980, there were 85,606 new annulment cases introduced and 84% of these were from the countries of the Americas. More specifically, nearly 80% of the world's annulment cases introduced that year came from the United States.

Overall, the number of annulments introduced annually has fallen by 43% since 1980 and in 2012 the total number of cases introduced was down to 49,912 of which 24,010 came from the United States (49% of the world total). Generally, the number of annulment cases from the Americas and Oceania are down while the numbers from Europe, Asia, and Africa are up.

There have been some changes to the annulment process since 1980. Now an initial annulment finding (first instance) is reviewed (second instance) before it can become confirmed. To keep the data as comparable as possible the table below compares annulments in 1980 to decrees of nullity for the first instance in 2012. The focus in this table is on cases where a decision has been made whereas the figure above focuses on new cases introduced (many cases cross over from one year to the next). In 1980, 89,065 annulment cases were closed and 68,787 annulments were granted. Thus, annulments made up 77% of all cases closed. That does not mean that in 23% of cases the Church found no grounds for annulment. In many cases the parties quit the process at some point without the Church ever making a determination (e.g., they may reconcile or no longer have interest in an annulment).

In 2012, 49,417 cases were closed (...moving on to the second instance) and the Church ruled in favor of nullity in 40,811 of these cases (83%). There is some regional variations in the likelihood of receiving an annulment. Only 61% of closed cases in Africa resulted in annulment compared to 86% of cases in the Americas. However, this is not because tribunals in Africa were more likely than those in the Americas to rule contrary to nullity. It is more a reflection of more people seeking annulments in Africa than in the Americas not completing the annulment process.

As shown in the figure below, when the number of marriages in the Church decline so do the number of annulment cases.

How can sacramental practice become less common even as the Catholic population continues to grow? One could easily jump to conclusions and consider this to be solely a reflection of "secularization" or a growing preoccupation with the digital world. Yet there is a bit of demography behind these changes as well.

The world's population is aging and you only get baptized or have your first communion once. People are living longer, healthier lives. It is this extension of life that is leading to population growth (...not births as it is so often assumed). Since 1995, now, and through 2050 we have and can continue to expect there to be about 125 million to 134 million births per year worldwide. At the same time, according to the Census Bureau's International Data Base, in 1995 average life expectancy at birth globally was 63. Today it is 69 and in 2050 it is expected to be 76.

When one looks at sacraments celebrated per 1,000 Catholics in a country or a region almost all the trend lines are declining since 1980. This result is driven by people, on average, living longer lives and having fewer children. Fertility rates are falling almost everywhere (Germany is now matching Japan for record low fertility). As the UN's most recent report on the World Population Situation concludes, "patterns of declining fertility and mortality over the past two decades have led to significant shifts in the age structure of the world’s population. ...While rising life expectancy is a success story, population ageing presents a number of challenges to families, communities and societies with respect to issues such as economic growth, economic security in old age, the organization of health care systems and the strength of familial support systems" (pg. 24). You can see the life expectancy and fertility trends, by country, move together below in World Bank data (press play):

If a population has fewer children it will also have fewer baptisms and then fewer marriages, etc. The cycle feeds on itself generation to generation. Few notice any changes in the short term because all this occurs as life expectancy gains boost overall population numbers. Sacramental numbers will inevitably wane given these demographic shifts. Annulment cases will also likely continue to fall regardless of any changes that might be made to the process. 

Catholicism in Space: Houston, do we have a problem?

Twin astronauts Mark and Scott Kelly (raised Catholic in an Irish-American family) are about to embark on an important scientific experiment on Friday. Scott Kelly will begin spending a year in space on the International Space Station (ISS) while his brother stays back here on earth as a control subject. NASA will be studying how extended time in space changes Scott relative to his brother Mark. Living for an extended time outside the gravity of earth and partially exposed to the radiation of space can impact one’s bones, heart, eyes, muscles, and who knows what else.

It’s probably important to start understanding and thinking more about living in space because frankly that is where the human future may be. At some point the Catholic Church will need to think about how people can “do” Catholicism in space. During the shuttle Endeavour mission STS-134 in March 2011, Mark Kelly was part of the crew on the ISS who spoke with Pope Benedict XVI. He told Kelly and the astronauts,

“Space exploration is a fascinating scientific adventure. I know you have been studying your equipment to further scientific research and to study radiation coming from outer space. But I think it is also an adventure of the human spirit. A powerful stimulus to reflect on the origins and on the destiny of the universe and humanity.”

Indeed the destiny of human beings is among the stars as our descendants will eventually need to get off this rock to survive (…if we don’t kill each other first). The sun is about to enter its mid-life crisis. At 4.6 billion years old it has more than a half-life to go. Well before then it is expected to get a bit brighter by about 10% in 1.1 billion years. That will begin to make life on earth as challenging as we have ever known it. By the end of its life cycle the sun will become a red giant and consume Mercury and Venus and most likely Earth as well. Before any of that happens, our galaxy, the Milky Way, will collide with the Andromeda Galaxy in 3.7 billion years. It could be no big deal for earth or it might be catastrophic. Either way due to the increased output of the sun by that point life on earth will already be impossible. Perhaps the descendant of humans today will have already found somewhere else in “Milkdromeda” to call home? There are numerous other ways the planet or life on it could be doomed much, much earlier including asteroid or comet impacts, a gamma-ray burst, a wandering black hole, a super solar flare, pandemics, super volcanoes, a flip in the planet’s magnetic field… Anyone trying the “save life on earth” or the “planet” is ultimately doomed to fail.

Over the long-term, space is the place and Catholics, like most other Americans, are interested in that exploration. In general, people of faith are just as interested as those without any religion. That means religious institutions will have to figure out how their faith will be practiced in zero gravity, without directional east or west, and without sunrises and seasons. That may be easier for some than others.

So how does Catholicism work outside the walls of an earthly parish among the stars? Of course some have already practiced their faith in space. On Apollo 11, Buzz Aldrin, a Presbyterian, took communion that he brought up to the moon (his crew brought a piece of the moon back for Pope Paul VI). Catholic astronauts Thomas Jones, Sidney Gutierrez, and Kevin Chilton celebrated a communion service on the space shuttle Endeavour with Eucharist they brought into space in a gold pyx in 1994. That will continue to work for short trips into space but what about a long journey or in a colony?

If a Catholic priest was on the ISS today could he say Mass? How would one keep the wine in a chalice in zero gravity? What about crumbs after breaking the Eucharistic bread? How does one purify the containers? There would be no candles. Which way is East? When is Sunday in space? When is Easter? Is it really kneeling in zero gravity? How could one confess sins without a priest on the crew?

The late Rev. Theodore M. Hesburgh, C.S.C., had presumably figured out the answer to some of these questions and was hoping to be the first priest to say a Mass among the heavens. He fell short of this dream but did get to fly at Mach 3.35 in an SR-71 Blackbird at the age of 62. It must have seemed like space flight. Someone else may have put some thought to the issues as well. The late Archbishop William D. Borders informed a surprised Pope Paul IV that he was the Bishop of the Moon. As the Bishop of Orlando at the time NASA astronauts were launching from Cape Canaveral to visit the moon he was the bishop of their home port. Thus, he was the de facto ordinary of the missionary lands they explored (six of the Apollo astronauts were Catholic). One could argue the Bishop of Orlando will continue to hold that position until perhaps China sends a crew to the Moon? That is when things get tricky. It is difficult to know as that country has multiple launch sites and sometimes multiple bishops!

There are many questions left to be answered for the practice of Catholicism in orbit or on the moon. Once you get to Mars, Europa, or go interstellar things will get even more problematic. There are not a lot of star systems with planets in our neighborhood of the galaxy. Travel to Epsilon Eridani, at 10.4 light years away, would require a multi-generational effort and a fast craft. There would be no quick returns from earth’s perspective (...after one accounts for time dilation from traveling at such extreme speeds). Of course we do not know if human reproduction is even possible in space yet. Assume that it is and we have a need for sacraments in space like marriage, baptisms, first communions, and funerals. 

I doubt there could ever be Space Cardinals (...even on Mars). There would be no way they could make it back for a conclave. The liturgical calendar would likely make little sense on any new planet. Days, months, and years could all be shorter or longer. A new planet may not be able to grow wheat and grapes. What then? On the positive side, I do think space travel might help solve one of the Catholic Church’s challenges. Think about this: Space Jesuits. That has a certain appeal. Perhaps recruitment will be less of an issue? After all more than 2,700 people have already applied for a one-way mission to Mars (...yes, I am aware of the award-winning 1996 novel, The Sparrow explores the idea of a “Space Jesuit”).

Science fiction novels and movies have rarely taken space, physics, or biology seriously. Perhaps because doing so would make for boring stories. Lightsabers are impossible. Traveling very near the speed of light would mean saying goodbye forever to anyone you ever knew. Interstellar (2014), which is released on DVD next week, is one of the first to take look at space travel with some realism (...although it does still include humans in wormholes, extra dimensions, etc). If you are a reader and have interest in the subject I strongly suggest Claude A. Piantadosi’s very non-fiction, Mankind Beyond Earth (2012). I used Piantadosi’s book in a class on the history and future of human exploration in the Fall. It got me thinking about how unprepared the Catholic Church is for the transition to space that began in the 1960s (...following the call of the first Catholic U.S. President).

A hundred years ago the idea that an average person could or would take many trips on planes in their life seeing different parts of the world seemed like a silly fantasy. Now it is quite common. I believe my grandchildren (and I don't actually have any yet) will be as regular tourists in near-earth space as we are to places around the world by plane. That is a future that deserves some thought now. It took 10,000 years of civilization to put humans on the moon. Imagine what we will accomplish in the next 10,000 years. In the long run, we should recognize that we are perhaps the greatest “weed” this planet has ever known. Our brains make us the ultimate survivors. Even if it is not a necessity, we will likely come to explore beyond our solar system. I hope the Catholic Church is a part of that journey.

Family in space photo (from Ray Bradbury’s The Gift a Christmas story in space) courtesy of James Vaughan.

Portraits of Lost (and Found) Identities

Many Catholics (and others) will express some ancestral national pride on St. Patrick’s Day and St. Joseph’s Day this week. More than 80% of Ireland and Italy’s populations are Catholic. Yet few may realize that most Americans who say their family is of Irish or Italian ancestry are not Catholic. In the just released 2014 General Social Survey (highlighted in the previous post) only 27% of Irish-Americans (more) self-identified as Catholic and only 48% of Italian Americans said their religion was Catholic (more). Those percentages have fallen over time.

Some things appear to get lost in translation through immigration and generational replacement. A Pew study recently highlighted the declining percentage of Hispanics who self-identify as Catholic. The largest national sub-group among this population has Mexican roots. Today, more than nine in ten adults who are of Italian (93%) or Irish (98%) ancestry were born in the United States. Only 50% of those of Mexican ancestry were born here. Most of Italian and Irish ancestry don’t have an immigration experience that they can personally recall whereas many of those of Mexican ancestry do.

As it stands now, 67% of those of Mexican ancestry self-identify as Catholic. I expect that percentage to continue to fall and converge toward other groups who came here from heavily Catholic countries. You can’t control or predict how children in the pluralism of the United States will see themselves or choose to live.

This turns out to be one statistical result and prediction that I can provide a useful anecdote for. I was recently watching the PBS documentary series The Italian Americans. It detailed FDR’s decision during World War II to brand non-citizen Italian immigrants as “Enemy Aliens,” placing some in internment camps with Executive Order 9066. Before she married and became a Gray, my grandma had an Italian last name. She had an enormous influence on my life. She is why I am Catholic (...as well as the influence of my dad, her son). After watching the documentary I wanted to look back at my grandmother and her family during the period of “Enemy Aliens.” The Census has a 72-year rule. It won’t release anything with identifying information until 72 years after it is collected. This is meant to protect people’s privacy. I found my grandmother in the Census in 1920, 1930, and 1940 as well as fragments from other official documents accessed from FamilySearch (“A service provided by The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints”).

 With my grandma in the early 1990s

Before looking at the Census I knew my great grandfather was from Milan. He was a twin and their restaurant could only support one family. He left the restaurant to his brother and came to America. He worked for wineries in southern California. The Census and other documents confirmed the stories I had grown up with. What I didn’t know was that he did not immigrate directly to the United States. His wife, my great grandmother, was from Mexico. Their five children were all born in Mexico and spoke Spanish. A sixth child, born in 1920, has her birthplace listed as California. My grandma was the first citizen in her family. My great grandfather had spent more than a decade living and starting a family in Mexico. I found border records indicating that he crossed with his family in 1917 at Nogales. This is all a family history my grandmother had never mentioned to me before she passed away. It was just a lost identity.

So now I have to ask myself, am I Hispanic? That’s an odd question to first ponder in your 40s. We assume people will maintain the identities of their parents. Sometimes they don’t. When people immigrate here they don’t always bring everything with them. In my family the one thing that did survive was our faith. The Catholicism rooted in Italy and Mexico lives on in my kids but I don’t know Spanish or Italian. I love the foods of both cultures but it’s just pasta sauce to me, not Sunday gravy. When I’ve completed the Census I’ve always noted by race as “white” and my ethnicity as “non-Hispanic.” I now have to wonder how I should respond for the 2020 Census based on what I’ve learned from the 1920 Census.

Thinking back to the documentary it is interesting that in 1920 and 1930 my great grandparents went by their birth names, Giovanni and Juana. By 1940, when “Enemy Aliens” entered the lexicon they had been transformed into John and Jennie speaking English in suburbia. The politics surrounding immigrants in the 1940s may have had much to do with their transformation.

If you did not experience your family’s immigration to this country yourself I think it can be very powerful thing to see it on paper. I have yet to find any evidence of Irish ancestry in my family. Then again that is something everyone acquires on St. Patrick’s Day in the United States. I’ll celebrate my authentic heritage Thursday and now on December 12 as well.

Image of 1940 Census interviewer and respondent courtesy of The U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Deconstructing the American Weekend: Where Religion Fits In

Were there too many empty pews in your church last weekend? Just what was everyone else doing while you were at Mass?

A great resource for understanding what Americans do is the American Time Use Survey (ATUS), which is conducted by the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics. We’ve previously used ATUS and other similar studies to look at generational differences in religious practice over time.

The ATUS interviews respondents from a large, nationally representative, random sample of households (more than 26,000) over the course of a year. Respondents are asked how they spent their time the day before they were interviewed (from 4 a.m. to 4 a.m.). The survey inquires as such: “So let's begin. Yesterday, at 4:00 AM, what were you doing?” The duration of activities are recorded and the day and night is filled out. Respondents can and do indicate that they multitask (i.e., do more than one thing at a time). The advantage of conducting a time use study is that the research is not directly inquiring about activities. So respondents are not asked, “Did you go to religious services?” (…when asked directly by Gallup, about four in ten Americans say they’ve gone to religious services in the week prior to being interviewed). In the ATUS, church attendance is only recorded if the respondent brings this up. This creates more accurate estimates of what people are actually doing (something we’ve covered before: 1, 2).

The table below shows the ATUS results for 2013 for what Americans (ages 15 and older) did on Saturdays and Sundays combined (…note this includes people of any religious affiliation or no affiliation). Nearly four in ten hours of the day on a weekend (38.9%) is spent asleep (an average of 9.34 hours per day). Nearly all Americans report time spent on leisure activities (e.g., socializing, relaxing, using entertainment content) on the weekend, averaging 5.73 hours per day (24% of weekend time). Of this weekend leisure time, 60% is spent watching television (2.57 hours per day). The only other activity that nearly all Americans report doing is eating and drinking and this takes on average, 1.21 hours per day on the weekend (5% of weekend time). One in five Americans works on the weekend (20.7%). Of those who do so, they spend on average 5.48 hours per day on the job. In CARA’s national surveys of adult Catholics we ask respondents for reasons that explain why they have missed Mass. Work is one of the top reasons cited (also illness).

After sleeping, leisure activities, eating and drinking, and work (for some) there is a scattering of other things done more frequently, on average, than religious or spiritual activities. These include: grooming (74.7% engaging for an average of 0.9 hours), housework (35.5% engaging for an average of 1.82 hours), food preparation and cleanup (53.7% engaging for an average of 1.18 hours), consumer goods purchases (42.2% engaging for an average of 1.17 hours), sports, exercise, and recreation (18.8% engaging for an average of 2.18 hours), caring for and helping children in the household (17.5% engaging for an average of 2.12 hours), and travel for leisure and sports (39.3% engaging for an average of 0.8 hours) or for purchasing goods and services (42.4% engaging for an average of 0.72 hours).

On average, Americans spend 0.31 hours per day on the weekend engaged in religious and spiritual activities (1.3% of weekend time). Note again this includes those of all (or no) affiliations and time on both Saturday and Sunday. Overall, 15.5% of Americans report a religious or spiritual activity and of these people, an average of 1.98 hours per day is spent on these activities (8.3% of their weekend time). As shown below, there is very little change in the percentage of time spent on religious or spiritual activities over the last decade. Americans have not become any less religious or spiritual in the things that they do since data collection began in 2003 (…don’t expect to ever read that in a newspaper as it doesn’t fit into the current “narrative” but it is in the data for anyone to see).

These religious or spiritual activities include things like attending a variety of religious services, prayer, meditating, reading or studying religious or spiritual texts, religious education, conducting religious rites in the home, evangelizing, religious or spiritual food preparation, religious or spiritual singing, retreats, visiting graves, or cleaning up after religious services.

Americans spend more time, on average, doing religious or spiritual things on the weekend than lawn and garden care, volunteering, homework or research, caring for pets, home repair, or vehicle-related activities.

Only 6.4% of Americans report religious or spiritual activities on a weekday. Of those who do, an average of 1.17 hours is spent on this per day.

Perhaps the ATUS data can also reveal the biggest “competitor” for time facing religious and spiritual activities. As Robert Putnam identified in Bowling Alone (2000) the one technology that appears to be the most efficient for “consuming” more and more of our time continues to be television. There is likely more than enough space for religion and spirituality alongside shopping and exercising. Working, eating, sleeping, and grooming are all relatively inescapable. Yet, it is difficult to imagine that television (...as much as I love it) is an “essential” for anyone.

It is true that one could watch religious and spiritual content on television. However, CARA’s multiple surveys on this topic reveal this is not a common activity by any means (1, 2). The channel is more often tuned elsewhere. More importantly the ATUS does not code viewing religious or spiritual content as “watching TV” and instead places that time under religious or spiritual activity.

Whether weekday or weekend, more than eight in ten Americans watches television. The average TV watcher consumes more than 24 hours of television per week! Before televisions invaded our living spaces that would have been a whole day every week that we would have spent doing something else (e.g., bowling in a league, visiting neighbors, going to PTA meetings, spending time at the lodge, playing with the kids outside). Over the last decade it has become so much easier to watch television. From cellphones to flat screens, on traditional networks or cable to streaming services—video content has never been so accessible. And the data reveal Americans continue to have a growing appetite for this content. In 2003, the average TV watcher (i.e., most Americans) consumed 23 hours per week. In 2013, the total had grown to 24.4 hours per week.

As television becomes easier to consume almost anywhere and anytime, many brick and mortar membership institutions (including Catholic parishes) are gradually losing their ability to compete for time and attention against video content (from two-minute clips to full-length films). Catholic parishes must be able to make the case that Mass is more important and more interesting than a Game of Thrones streaming marathon or an NFL game. One would think that the former should be evident to any self-identified Catholic. However, CARA’s national surveys show many Catholics do not think missing Mass is a sin or at least not a sin that will lead to negative consequences. Monthly attendance is becoming a norm among many Catholic sub-groups. Making the case for “more interesting” can be a bigger challenge. One avenue may be to join in and do more religion on television, Netflix, YouTube, etc. Get people interested in their faith with good video content and maybe they will be more inclined to create that weekend space for religion and spirituality in a parish.

Until then, when some Catholics (and those of other faiths) continue to tell survey researchers that they “just drifted away” from their faith to be “nothing” we may better understand where many really drift off to…

Images courtesy of Chris Smith and Chris Brown.

By the Numbers: Jesuit Demography

This post is an update of sorts to one of this blog’s most visited pieces of research by CARA’s Executive Director Thomas P. Gaunt, SJ, PhD. It provides the most recent view of what is happening in the Society of Jesus globally:

This year marked the 200th Anniversary of the restoration of the Society of Jesus by Pope Pius VII in 1814.  The first 150 years of the restored Society saw a steady increase in the number of Jesuits across Europe and the Americas and the beginnings of an indigenous Jesuit population in Asia, Africa, and Latin America.  The most recent 50 years show a reversal in the pattern of growth and expansion of Jesuits as India replaces the United States as the largest national group, and Asia and Africa experience steady growth compared to the declining numbers in Europe and North America.

The changing number of Jesuits is driven by three factors: the number of men entering the novitiate each year, the number of men departing the Jesuits each year, and the number of Jesuits that die each year.  A steady growth in the number of Jesuits is usually due to a consistently larger group entering year after year and a smaller group dying each year.  A steady decline is usually the reverse of these two factors.  Since the number of entrances or deaths can vary quite a bit year over year this study examines the data in 5 year blocks in order to smooth annual variances.

For administrative purposes the provinces of the Society of Jesus are organized under six geographic regions:

• Africa – all of Africa and Madagascar except North Africa
• Latin America – all of South America, Central America, Mexico, Puerto Rico, and the Caribbean
• South Asia – India, Nepal, and Sri Lanka
• East Asia – Australia, Philippines, Indonesia, Korea, Japan, Vietnam, China, Thailand, and Myanmar
• Europe – Europe, Russia, the Middle East, North Africa, and Canada
• United States – USA, Jamaica, Belize, and Micronesia

Overall Numbers
The graph below shows the total number of Jesuits at five year intervals (1988, 1993, 1998, 2003, 2008, 2013) over the past 25 years.  Both Africa and South Asia show a steady increase in numbers, and East Asia has a small decline.  The Jesuits of Latin America have a steady decline in numbers, and the Jesuits of the United States and Europe have a much sharper decline.  Europe and the United States have about one-half the number of Jesuits as 25 years ago.

Entering Novices
Twenty-five years ago the largest number of entering novices were in Europe followed by South Asia and then Latin America.  The United States, Africa and East Asia each had smaller numbers entering.  Over the years the number entering declined in Europe, Latin America and the United States while the number entering in South Asia and East Asia fluctuated.  Only Africa saw a continuous increase in new novices.

The sharp decline in the number of entering novices, more than 50 percent, in Europe, Latin America, and the United States accounts for almost all of the decline in entrances.  The rest of the world is relatively stable or growing.  In 1988 Europe, Latin America and the United States had 59 percent of all the entering novices and by 2013 this had declined to 40 percent.  On the other hand, South Asia, East Asia and Africa went from 41 percent to 60 percent of the entering novices.  The clear majority of younger Jesuits are now coming from Asia and Africa.

Departures from the Jesuits
In a pattern that is typical for all religious institutes, a large number of the men who enter the Jesuit novitiate later leave, usually during the years of formation before ordination or final vows.  In general the pattern of departures follows the earlier pattern of entrances for each region of the Jesuits.  There is a sharp decline in the number of departures over 25 years in Europe and the United States, and more recently in Latin America.  There are fewer departures in East Asia and an increase in departures in Africa and South Asia.

Entrants minus Departures
The sustainability of the membership of a religious community relies on their being more entrances than departures over the course of years.  The graph below shows the gain or loss for each region of Jesuits in five-year periods over the past 25 years.  South Asia and Africa have had large gains in members in each period of time.  East Asia has shown a smaller but increasing gain, and Europe a diminished but stabilizing gain.  Latin America and the United States have shown periods of a loss of members (more men departing than entering over a five-year period), although both are showing a net gain in recent years.

Number of Deaths
The vast majority of older Jesuits who entered prior to 1960 are in Europe and the United States, and there are fewer older Jesuits in Africa and South Asia.  The Jesuits in Europe and the United States have consistently accounted for about two-thirds of all the deaths over the past 25 years while their proportion of the overall Jesuit membership has gone from 60 percent to 44 percent.

Entrances minus Departures minus Deaths: Net Gain or Loss
When the number of men leaving the Jesuits is subtracted from the number entering and then the number of deaths are subtracted from that figure, we have the net gain or loss in Jesuit membership.  In combining these three basic demographic elements we see clearly the large and continuous impact of the declining membership in Europe and the United States, and to a lesser extent Latin America.  Only Africa and South Asia record any net gain in Jesuits year over year, and that gain is dwarfed by the losses of Europe and the United States.  While Africa and South Asia may have a net gain of 100 to 200 Jesuits over a five-year period, Europe and the United States have a net loss 1,200 to 1,300 Jesuits.

Observations
The greatest contrast in Jesuit demography among the regions of the world is the number of deaths.  The large number of elderly Jesuits in Europe and the United States dying each year is the dominant factor in the changing Jesuit demography.  Around 2000, the Jesuits of South Asia out-numbered the Jesuits of the United States and it is expected that South Asia may out-number Europe by 2015.

As Jesuits gather in 2016 for a General Congregation and to elect a new Superior General, the demographic center of the Jesuits will be in South Asia and the global South. 

Image courtesy of Ilho Song.