Afterlife After Secularization

 

It may have seemed like I was dead but I'm not. Back from the hiatus of a heavy workload for one last 2019 post... When looking at trend or cohort data it is clear that the United States is undergoing a wave of secularization. The country isn't "losing God" but the influence of religion and the frequency of religious practice appears to be weakening by many measures. Yet, there are two trends where this erosion isn't as evident. One of these is frequency of prayer which has remained very consistent over time in the General Social Survey (at least since 1972). The other is belief in life after death. 

This is one of the few measures where even younger Catholics show growth. Only 73% of Catholics ages 18 to 29 in the 1970s said they believed in life after death. Since 2000, 87% of Catholics of this age state a belief in life after death. In fact, in the 2010s Catholics ages 18 to 29 are more likely to believe in the afterlife than Catholics of any other age. Currently, Catholics in their 40s are the least likely to believe in life after death (79%). The other trend that is evident is that Catholics ages 60 and older have grown more confident in the afterlife since the 1970s.

 

The other surprising trend is that American adults without a religious affiliation have grown stronger in their belief in life after death. In 1975, 45% of adults without a religion believed in life after death. In 2018, 60% of this demographic group now believes. 

As a general trend, among all U.S. adults more believe in life after death now (82%) than in 1975 (74%). Why has this grown while belief in other religious tenets and religious practice has waned a bit? Not sure. Perhaps it is because belief in the afterlife and prayer are both rooted so deeply in hope.

Here is to hoping for many more posts in 2020... Wishing everyone reading this a very merry Christmas! 

Afterlife image courtesy of John Watson.

Real Presence or "Actual Presence"

You’ve likely heard the news… “Just one-third of U.S. Catholics agree with their church that Eucharist is body, blood of Christ.” File this one under the challenges of translating complex theology into straightforward survey questions.

Pew asked Catholic respondents the following questions:

Which of the following best describes Catholic teaching about the bread and wine used for Communion? The bread and wine…
1.    Actually become the body and blood of Jesus Christ
2.    Are symbols of the body and blood of Jesus Christ
3.    Not sure

Regardless of the official teaching of the Catholic Church, what do you personally believe about the bread and wine used for Communion? During Catholic Mass, the bread and wine…
1.    Actually become the body and blood of Jesus Christ
2.    Are symbols of the body and blood of Jesus Christ

These questions produced the following results:

This is significantly different than what sociologists of religion found in 2011 in the United States. Their results look like this (described in a previous post):
 

Has the percentage of Catholics who know the Church teaching on the Real Presence and who believe in it fallen from 46% in 2011 to 28% in 2019? That is a very dramatic shift. Has the percentage who are unaware of the Church’s teaching yet who believe in the Real Presence gone from 17% to only 2%? Overall, Pew’s study, in contrast to the earlier survey, would seem to indicate the share of Catholic not believing in the Real Presence has spiked upward from 37% in 2011 to 65% in 2019.

It is important to note that the 2011 study used slightly different question wording:

Which of the following statements best describes the Catholic teaching about the bread and wine used for communion?
1.    The bread and wine really become the body and blood of Jesus Christ
2.    The bread and wine are only symbols of the body and blood of Jesus Christ

Do you believe that at the Consecration during a Catholic Mass, the bread and wine really become the body and blood of Jesus Christ?
1.    Yes, believe
2.    No, don't believe

The differences between results in the surveys may reflect a real shift in belief or they may be an artifact of the difference in question wording. I think it is about Real Presence and “Actual Presence” (Note: CARA has used different wording to ask about the Real Presence in 2001 and 2008: “Jesus Christ is really present in the bread and wine of the Eucharist vs. Bread and wine are symbols of Jesus, but Jesus is not really present”).

According to the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops (USCCB), “the Catholic Church professes that, in the celebration of the Eucharist, bread and wine become the Body and Blood of Jesus Christ through the power of the Holy Spirit and the instrumentality of the priest.” This is also described as “an inexhaustible mystery.” Further, the bishops note, “In the celebration of the Eucharist, the glorified Christ becomes present under the appearances of bread and wine in a way that is unique, a way that is uniquely suited to the Eucharist. In the Church's traditional theological language, in the act of consecration during the Eucharist the ‘substance’ of the bread and wine is changed by the power of the Holy Spirit into the ‘substance’ of the Body and Blood of Jesus Christ. At the same time, the ‘accidents’ or appearances of bread and wine remain.”

Thus, many Catholics may understand that the bread and wine do not “actually” become the Body and Blood of Christ in the way we may use that word in everyday life (i.e., factually present as proven by empirical observation). You can’t take the Eucharist and put it under the microscope and see cellular flesh. No chemical analysis will show the presence of hemoglobin (with the exception of belief in Eucharistic miracles). At the same time, the Eucharist is not just a “symbol.” The presence of Christ is “really” there. The USCCB notes, “This kind of presence corresponds to the virtue of faith, for the presence of the Body and Blood of Christ cannot be detected or discerned by any way other than faith.” In this way, the Pew religious knowledge question on this item is incomplete at best.

My hunch is that if you replace “actually” with “really” in the questions (or better yet use “Jesus Christ is really present in the bread and wine of the Eucharist vs. Bread and wine are symbols of Jesus, but Jesus is not really present”) you’ll see a different result. It’s subtle. It’s also just a hypothesis. CARA will be testing this during the Fall and should have an update soon.

Creative Commons image of stained glass courtesy of Fr Lawrence Lew, O.P.

For Its Size, The Church in Myanmar is Producing More Priests than Anywhere Else

Every three years CARA calculates diocesan ordination rates in the United States, which are published in The CARA Report. This post looks globally at national ordination rates for diocesan priests. This is done with the most recent available ordination data for 2015, 2016, and 2017 and Catholic population data for 2017 from the Vatican’s Annuarium Statisticum Ecclesiae. The table below lists countries in rank order by number of Catholics to ordinand ratios. While we analyzed data for every available country the table only includes those that satisfy the following qualifications: 1) has a population of at least 100,000 Catholics, and 2a) a total of at least nine ordinations in the three years examined or 2b) has at least one ordination in each of the three years.

Brazil is one of the countries with more than 1,000 ordinations in the most recent three years for which data is available. India also ordained more than 1,000 men. The difference between the two countries is that there are 22 million Catholics in India compared to 175 million in Brazil. Thus, India had 14,433 Catholics per diocesan ordinand compared to 137,846 Catholics per ordinand in Brazil. India is producing more priests (1,523 from 2015-17 compared to 1,269 in Brazil during the same period) with a smaller Catholic population.

The countries creating the most new priests relative to the size of their Catholic population include: Myanmar (8,193 Catholics per ordinand), Thailand (10,514 per ordinand), Togo (12,381 per ordinand), Vietnam (12,843 per ordinand), and Bangladesh (12,967 per ordinand). This includes four Asian countries and one African country.

The United States comes in just above the middle of the pack with 52,869 Catholics per ordinand. Just ahead of the U.S. is Great Britain, where many more new priests per Catholic are ordained than in neighboring Ireland (52,867 Catholics per ordinand compared to 117,404 in Ireland).

		Ordinations
Rank	Country	2015	2016	2017	Total	Catholics per Ordinand	Catholics
1	Myanmar	21	29	33	83	8,193	680,000
2	Thailand	15	9	13	37	10,514	389,000
3	Togo	61	53	54	168	12,381	2,080,000
4	Vietnam	163	183	189	535	12,843	6,871,000
5	Bangladesh	8	7	15	30	12,967	389,000
6	Mali	12	6	5	23	13,130	302,000
7	Eritrea	4	4	8	16	13,625	218,000
8	India	490	531	502	1,523	14,433	21,981,000
9	Romania	35	30	32	97	14,897	1,445,000
10	South Korea	118	102	145	365	15,704	5,732,000
11	Sri Lanka	40	27	27	94	16,936	1,592,000
12	Ukraine	81	113	91	285	17,330	4,939,000
13	Guinea	1	4	11	16	17,625	282,000
14	Israel	4	6	7	17	17,765	302,000
15	Ghana	61	62	82	205	18,317	3,755,000
16	Senegal	23	4	14	41	19,268	790,000
17	Egypt	6	4	4	14	19,286	270,000
18	Japan	11	7	9	27	19,852	536,000
19	Botswana	1	2	2	5	22,800	114,000
20	Cameroon	86	116	88	290	22,976	6,663,000
21	Equatorial Guinea	6	24	9	39	23,282	908,000
22	Malta	3	9	5	17	24,353	414,000
23	Syrian Arab Republic	2	3	4	9	24,444	220,000
24	Taiwan	5	3	1	9	24,778	223,000
25	Bosnia and Herzegovina	7	7	2	16	25,125	402,000
26	Burkina Faso	40	30	46	116	25,405	2,947,000
27	Benin	40	53	36	129	28,450	3,670,000
28	Nigeria	319	342	347	1,008	28,646	28,875,000
29	Sweden	1	2	1	4	30,000	120,000
30	Sierra Leone	1	6	3	10	31,300	313,000
31	Slovakia	36	43	45	124	32,331	4,009,000
32	Solomon Islands	1	2	1	4	32,750	131,000
33	Ethiopia	12	12	3	27	33,556	906,000
34	Rwanda	37	59	60	156	35,449	5,530,000
35	Zimbabwe	16	19	18	53	36,811	1,951,000
36	Indonesia	64	61	96	221	37,068	8,192,000
37	Poland	327	339	327	993	37,325	37,064,000
38	New Zealand	10	2	4	16	37,438	599,000
39	Lebanon	24	19	14	57	37,579	2,142,000
40	Chad	10	18	4	32	39,594	1,267,000
41	Croatia	40	23	26	89	41,000	3,649,000
42	Gabon	10	5	7	22	44,000	968,000
43	Iraq	1	9	3	13	45,308	589,000
44	Albania	6	2	3	11	46,000	506,000
45	Congo	14	16	25	55	47,691	2,623,000
46	Burundi	41	37	60	138	49,065	6,771,000
47	Pakistan	3	14	11	28	49,393	1,383,000
48	Czech Republic	28	25	13	66	50,182	3,312,000
49	Great Britain	37	32	36	105	52,867	5,551,000
50	United States	503	447	436	1,386	52,869	73,277,000
51	Madagascar	32	56	58	146	56,390	8,233,000
52	Italy	342	336	308	986	58,738	57,916,000
53	Papua New Guinea	11	19	10	40	60,650	2,426,000
54	Serbia	2	2	2	6	66,667	400,000
55	Uganda	79	112	82	273	67,220	18,351,000
56	Australia	46	27	24	97	69,268	6,719,000
57	Zambia	19	31	28	78	70,910	5,531,000
58	Belarus	6	6	7	19	76,789	1,459,000
59	Slovenia	8	10	2	20	76,950	1,539,000
60	El Salvador	30	23	14	67	78,463	5,257,000
61	Haiti	31	35	34	100	80,380	8,038,000
62	Central African Republic	7	5	11	23	80,826	1,859,000
63	Kenya	76	56	54	186	80,952	15,057,000
64	Malaysia	9	3	3	15	81,133	1,217,000
65	Latvia	1	3	1	5	82,400	412,000
66	Hungary	21	25	22	68	88,074	5,989,000
67	Colombia	157	180	180	517	89,238	46,136,000
68	Tanzania	55	66	57	178	89,792	15,983,000
69	South Africa	10	13	19	42	92,643	3,891,000
70	East Timor	1	8	3	12	101,500	1,218,000
71	Portugal	25	34	30	89	102,697	9,140,000
72	Dem. Rep. of the Congo	167	140	124	431	104,942	45,230,000
73	Spain	158	130	110	398	109,060	43,406,000
74	Paraguay	13	28	19	60	109,900	6,594,000
75	Germany	60	79	74	213	112,437	23,949,000
76	Costa Rica	7	13	15	35	112,886	3,951,000
77	Peru	103	81	60	244	116,861	28,514,000
78	Ireland	19	16	12	47	117,404	5,518,000
79	Hong Kong	1	2	2	5	120,200	601,000
80	Mexico	314	309	312	935	121,089	113,218,000
81	Honduras	28	17	14	59	122,949	7,254,000
82	Malawi	16	18	13	47	124,149	5,835,000
83	Canada	44	32	44	120	135,067	16,208,000
84	Ivory Coast	69	58	54	181	135,751	24,571,000
85	Brazil	471	348	450	1,269	137,846	174,926,000
86	Nicaragua	13	23	3	39	146,026	5,695,000
87	Angola	34	31	43	108	151,852	16,400,000
88	Switzerland	5	9	7	21	163,619	3,436,000
89	Austria	11	11	9	31	165,194	5,121,000
90	Uruguay	6	2	8	16	168,063	2,689,000
91	Bolivia	15	27	14	56	172,232	9,645,000
92	Venezuela	67	42	49	158	174,677	27,599,000
93	Dominican Republic	24	14	16	54	178,370	9,632,000
94	Mozambique	14	16	12	42	181,452	7,621,000
95	Philippines	147	170	146	463	186,566	86,380,000
96	Puerto Rico	9	1	5	15	188,400	2,826,000
97	Ecuador	21	36	20	77	189,545	14,595,000
98	Argentina	86	66	62	214	194,266	41,573,000
99	France	69	88	83	240	202,671	48,641,000
100	Guatemala	20	20	20	60	225,883	13,553,000
101	Netherlands	7	8	6	21	226,190	4,750,000
102	Panama	7	5	4	16	226,813	3,629,000
103	Lithuania	3	5	3	11	232,727	2,560,000
104	South Sudan	8	8	7	23	270,217	6,215,000
105	Cuba	8	5	11	24	283,125	6,795,000
106	Sudan	2	1	1	4	298,250	1,193,000
107	Chile	19	6	11	36	377,833	13,602,000
108	Belgium	10	3	6	19	431,158	8,192,000

In addition to the countries listed above, there are a number of other countries of note with fewer than 100,000 Catholics that have at least nine ordinations in the three years examined or at least one ordination per year. In fact, remove the minimum 100,000 Catholics requirement and Nepal shoots to the top of the list with 2,667 Catholics per ordinand (3 ordinations; one each year with a total Catholic population of 8,000). Other countries that would appear if the Catholic population restriction is removed while the other requirements are maintained include: Samoa (3,444 Catholics per ordinand), Niger (3,833 per ordinand), Liechtenstein (5,600 per ordinand), Denmark (7,833 per ordinand), Kosovo (11,000 per odinand), Kiribati (16,750 per ordinand), and Fiji (21,333 per ordinand). However, these ratios are, in part, a function of having very small Catholic populations. At the same time it is still remarkable that Catholics in these nations are consistently choosing to become diocesan priests.

Last we looked in 2017, the top U.S. dioceses for Catholics per ordinand were Nashville (4,678 Catholics per ordinand), Crookston (5,348 per ordinand), Covington (6,455 per ordinand), Lincoln (6,506 per ordinand), and Knoxville (6,912 per ordinand). Check out The CARA Report in the near future for updated diocesan rankings. 

Image courtesy of Billy Lopue.

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Note: The Vatican includes Ireland and Northern Ireland as Ireland and Great Britain includes England, Wales, and Scotland.