The Future is Now

An article I wrote for Our Sunday Visitor Newsweekly is online now and in print next week. It focuses on statistical projections of Church life 25 years into the future in 2035. One of the themes is how we will likely need to deal with parish and sacramental life that includes many fewer priests (i.e., if current trends continue).

One of the surprises of the research is that few Catholics say they have been personally affected by a shortage of priests yet in CARA Catholic Polls (CCP).  Perhaps it’s all an issue of localized change? You may hear about one or more parishes closing in your diocese but these changes rarely get “aggregated” in a national perspective (... from 2000 to 2009, the number of parishes in the United States declined by 6.2 percent or -1,278 parishes).

I did the simplest research one can do these days and googled “priest shortage” for news results. Here is what I found in the first page of results for news within the last month:

• Taking its toll: "The Diocese of San Bernardino is closing a 50-year-old parish in the desert community of Joshua Tree, citing “the ongoing priest shortage” as the reason."
• Flowood priest growing leaders, fostering creativity: "With a priest shortage worldwide, more emphasis will be placed on church members running the day-to-day operations." 
• Fall River Diocese pulling chaplains from area high schools: "The Diocese of Fall River is removing all full-time chaplains from its high schools in the midst of a priest shortage."
• Parishioners celebrate last Mass at Nicoma Park church: "The Archdiocese of Oklahoma City is closing the church because of a shortage of priests. The church was formed in 1949."
• Monsignor retires from St. Joseph Church: "He's pastor to more than 2000 families at St. Joseph and he has no assistant because of the priest shortage."

Notice the trend in just this small set of recent news results where parishes are being closed and ministries altered not because there are too few Catholics but because of too few priests. Also note that these stories really are scattered all across the country from California to Oklahoma to Massachusetts. In the OSV piece I note that we are all likely in for “steady change” and that parish and sacramental life will be significantly altered for practicing Catholics in the years to come. CARA is currently conducting research for the Emerging Models of Pastoral Leadership project to identify and understand emerging pastoral leadership models that can sustain vibrant Catholic parish life in the United States in this changing environment.

This collaboration of the National Association of Lay Ministry (NALM) with four other national ministerial organizations—the Conference of Pastoral Planning and Council Development (CPPCD), the National Association of Church Personnel Administrators (NACPA), the National Catholic Young Adult Ministry Association (NCYAMA), and the National Federation of Priests’ Councils (NFPC)—is  funded by The Lilly Endowment.  It began in 2003 and is scheduled to conclude in 2012.

Research has and will continue to focus on many parish life issues including multiple parish ministry and parish clustering, recruiting and training the next generation of pastoral leaders, the role of finance and pastoral councils, and Canon 517.2 parishes where pastoral care has been entrusted to deacons or lay persons. The research has already or will eventually include surveys of pastors and those entrusted with the care of a Canon 517.2 parish, parish staff persons and volunteers, other parish leaders, as well as parishioners (in-pew). Bishops have been interviewed as part of the project and statistical trends have been and continue to be scrutinized. Much of this research is available on the Emerging Models website (linked above) now or will be available in the future once all projects are completed.

As I note in the OSV piece, unforeseen changes are always likely and let us hope and pray that the projections are off the mark and that the future only holds good news for the Church. I would not mind being wrong on this one.

What Your Pastor Is Really Worried About: In His Own Words...

The research presented below is based on a content analysis by CARA student researcher Michael Budzinski (Georgetown Class of 2014). 

What is your pastor worried about? CARA recently asked a random sample of pastors in our National Survey of Catholic Parishes (NSCP), "What is the greatest challenge facing your parish in the next five years?" Each pastor could respond in their own words. These were then examined for common themes and content.

First among their worries is finances. Twenty-one percent mentioned a financial issue as their top challenge. This strongly correlates with the 25% of parishes nationally that ran a budget deficit last year as estimated by the NSCP. This is also strongly related to the demographic changes described in our recent "Tale of Two Churches" post with parishes in the Northeast (32%) most likely to run a deficit and those in the South least likely to face this challenge (15%).

Some of the representative "financial issues" comments from Northeastern and Midwestern pastors are shown below.

• Increasing costs of running a parish. Concerns about offertory and fundraising ability.
• We are struggling to survive financially. We are encouraging people to contribute more to the collection and examining the possibility of merging with another parish.
• Planning to get rid of a few old buildings and start new stewardship programs.
• The local economy, no jobs, high school and college graduates are not returning to the area.
• Declining numbers. Loss of young people. Number of aging parishioners. We are looking at how we can tighten budget due to the 'givers' declining in years.
• Fundraising. We will need to go to foundations. Parishioners are generous but limited in resources.
• Old facility needs some major repairs. Pray to find ways to bring in more revenue and save it for the future needs.
• Largest challenge is dealing with rising expenses and fewer parishioners.
• Finances. We are cutting staff.

At the same time, many in the South and West raised a primary challenge related to their property and need for facility improvement or expansion. This was noted by 13% of pastors overall. It is most common among pastors in the West who have the largest numbers of parishioners, on average (about 4,000 including registered and the unregistered who regularly attend Masses). Representative comments include: 

• The building of a new and larger worship space.
•  Parish growth is the problem. We plan to secure more land across the street for parking so we can build a larger church on our current lot.
• Our parish is a growing parish with many young persons. We are building a larger church and are currently in the middle of a capital campaign that has been very successful.
• Need more space. We are in the process of planning for the future. We are doing a pastoral plan that includes the need for more staffing in the parish and a multifunctional building or hall.
• Growth. Good problem! Building accommodations for classes, meetings, etc. Of course with that comes financial needs, building campaigns, etc.
• Increasing growth. More than a thousand houses are scheduled to be constructed in the area around the parish in the next few years. We need an addition to our church, doubling its capacity.
• Not enough space to continue to grow. We are raising funds to be able to buy more land.
• Limited parking and our solution would be to partner with nearby agencies to share parking on Sundays to take of our 'virtual members' of the parish who are worried about driving and not finding parking.
• We are in capital campaign to build a K-8 school, a 2,000 seat church, a 300 seat chapel, and administrative offices.

There are some parishes in the Northeast and Midwest that are also dealing with similar needs but for very different reasons. When a parish closes another nearby parish becomes the new home to more parishioners. In areas where a closure does not occur but parishes instead share a pastor, ministers, and/or ministries (i.e., multi-parish ministry) a larger community is created and served by fewer parish leaders. The NSCP estimates that 19% of parishes have started using multi-parish ministry in the last five years and 6% have been affected by a parish closure during that time. Multi-parish ministry has most often been adopted in the Midwest (33%) and parishes have been affected by closures most often in the Northeast (12%). Seven percent of pastors cited their biggest challenge is merging and/or the creation of "mega-parishes." Representative comments from the Midwest and Northeast include:

• Developing a partnership between three parishes. Overcoming fear that a parish will be closed. Being open to a decision which parish will be the center parish. The challenge of making partnerships. 
• Because of the priest shortage we were forced into clusters but it was up to each cluster to determine how to function. Too often the cluster is looked at as a merge and the small parishes are getting gobbled up by the larger who believe they are entitled to all the best Mass times, staffing, preferences, etc. Also, comfort parishioners who are afraid that we will be closed. Sadly some have said they will simply move next door to the Lutheran Church where they have friends rather than travel 20 miles to the next Catholic church.
• We are clustered with four other parishes. The challenges facing us are the shortage of priests which comes the clustering/linking of parishes or closure.
• The challenge facing our parish in the next five years is the possible merger with two other churches. The office for these churches has merged and the bulletin has merged. We are proceeding with a unified approach, in hopes to unite the people of each church. 
• Currently in the middle of the consolidation of six parishes into two, and eventually one. That is enough of a challenge for anyone; e.g. worship schedule too many buildings, real estate.
• Merging four parishes into a new parish having two worship sites. The parish covers two cities with very different demographics and economies. We engage people in listening sessions striving to provide good liturgies and activities bringing people together.
• Clustered with three other parishes. One of them has been closed. The number of priests is still shrinking in the diocese. There is anxiety about future leadership and configuration as some rearrangement has been happening each year somewhere in the diocese. Mostly we are in denial.

Many other challenges do not have the regional divides evident in the responses noted above. Following financial issues are three semi-related concerns common throughout the country: evangelization, parishioner apathy, and engaging young people. Representative comments include:

• People who are no longer practicing their faith regularly. We have established an Evangelization Team to work on the helping all to grow in their relationship to Christ and to invite back those who no longer actively worship with us.
• We are evaluating many initiatives to reach out to the "unchurched" and fallen away Catholics.
• Awakening the faith of the parishioners and those who do not join us on a regular basis. Continue to evangelize and spread the word. Growing Mass attendance and expand our volunteer base.
• Evangelizing parents. Many of our 30 to 45-year-olds don't know their faith.
• Retaining and attracting participants (especially on the younger end of the age spectrum).
• Reaching out to the 70% of registered parishioners who are not attending Mass regularly.
• No one is locked in to church. While we can count on some Catholics to be faithful no matter what, a growing portion of parishioners is fickle and choosy. Every weekend is an audition.
• Keeping young adults close to the church.
• Encourage young families to come to church and bring their children. Sports programs have become the churches for this group.

Other issues of concern across the country include a lack of priests and a lack of staff or resources. Representative comments include:

• Priest shortage. Pastor with multiple parishes.
• I expect that this parish will be closed when the diocese finalizes a plan to deal with declining priest population.
• Declining number of priests and deacons, especially those who can serve Hispanics and minorities.
• Priest shortage may cause combining of parishes.
• There is no longer a resident pastor and a handful of devoted parishioners are keeping the Catholic identity alive.
• Staff is part time and turns back half their salary in order to keep the place operational.
• Recruiting and training competent, capable parish volunteers.
• Not having a resident pastor or sharing one and having fewer liturgies.
• The need for someone other than the pastor to provide for adult formation and catechist training and liturgical music. We need professionally trained and salaried Adult Formation Director and Liturgical Musician.

A variety of other challenges were noted by pastors as shown in the graph above. Some were rather unique and were unnamed by others (i.e. "other" comments). A sampling of all these other challenges includes:

• In the process of a complete merger. The primary challenge will be retaining the cultural/ethnic identities and the historical traditions moving forward, as well as redefining what it means for us to be parish.
• Bringing three diverse communities together in one parish: Anglo, Hispanic, and Vietnamese. They have evolved into three distinct communities which share very little in common.
• Aging congregation. Nothing I can do about it. Young people must leave for employment.
• Keep the school open. Our families are old. We have to find kids outside the parish.
• Our parish is changing due to an influx of immigrants. The older parishioners are not ready for the change because they see what is familiar changing fast. I basically have two parishes. One Anglo and the other Hispanic. Very difficult to merge the two. We have opportunities for the two communities to come together, but we don't have good participation.
• Demographics indicate that after high school, young people get as far away from this area as possible. It an old steel town that has not retooled itself and so they are few jobs and basically nothing to do around here.
• The consumer culture is a huge challenge to us. Young adults are too busy for church at this point in their lives. They look for more exciting places. Many of our families are 'transit' Catholics who go where it is convenient either because Mass is quicker or times are more convenient. They aren't engaged or attached to a parish until they want something.
• Maintaining Catholic identity in culture that rejects and openly mocks religion. The secular influence by schools and sport teams and other social events have made the Church far less than third class.
• Parishioners do not know each other.
• Dealing with people polarized on different church and political issues.
• We need to find and encourage people who have a preference for the 1962 Mass to come and join us.
• Keeping up with the integration of technology in the life of the parish.

The NSCP included a series of questions, commissioned by St. John’s School of Theology Seminary, about the recently revised English-language Roman Missal. Results from the responses to these questions have gained some media attention. It is important to note that none of the NSCP respondents mentioned the revised Missal as a major challenge facing their parish in the responses to the open-ended question analyzed above. Thus, even though about half of priests say they don't like the revisions, few apparently see this as their most pressing problem. This could be because, as other CARA research has shown, an overwhelming majority of those in the pews agree that the revisions were good.

Look for more results from the NSCP to be released by CARA soon. Also be sure to visit the Emerging Models of Pastoral Leadership research archive where you will find an enormous amount of related research on parish life in the United States.


About the National Survey of Catholic Parishes (NSCP)
The research was made possible through funding provided by SC Ministry Foundation and St. Matthew's Catholic Church in Charlotte, NC. In October 2013, CARA began sending invitations to 6,000 randomly selected parishes (5,000 by email and 1,000 mail) to take part in the National Survey of Catholic Parishes (NSCP). Stratification was used. The total number of parishes randomly selected in each diocese was determined by weighting the diocesan averages of the percentage of the Catholic population and the percentage of Catholic parishes in the United States in each diocese as reported in The Official Catholic Directory (OCD). This stratification ensures that parishes representing the full Catholic population were included rather than a sample more dominated by areas where there are many small parishes with comparatively small Catholic populations. A total of 486 email addresses were not valid and 68 of the mailed invitations were returned as bad addresses or as being closed parishes. Thus, the survey likely reached 5,446 parishes. The survey remained in the field as periodic reminders by email and mail were made until February 2014. Reminders were halted during Advent and the survey closed before Lent in 2014. A total of 539 responses to the survey were returned to CARA for a response rate of 10%. This number of responses results in a margin of sampling error of ±4.2 percentage points at the 95% confidence interval. Respondents include those returning a survey by mail or answering online. The survey consisted of 169 questions and spanned eight printed pages. A slightly smaller national CARA parish survey, including 141 questions from 2010, obtained a 15% response rate. Response rates for CARA parish surveys are correlated with the length of the questionnaire. Responding parishes match closely to the known distribution of parishes by region. Data for sacraments celebrated also match the OCD closely.

Parish image courtesy of Ryan Basilio. The addition of the thought bubble wordle is based on all of the responses to the challenge question.

Surplus and Shortage: Mapping Priests and Parishes

Every parish needs a priest. At least one. On Sunday for sure...

Yet, nearly one in five U.S. parishes do not have a resident priest pastor. Seven in ten have a diocesan priest serving in this capacity and religious priests serve as resident pastors in 11% of parishes. In 17% of parishes a priest is serving as a non-resident pastor (in a small number a "team of priests" administrates). In about 430 parishes (or 2.5% of all parishes), due to a shortage of priests, a deacon or lay person is entrusted with the pastoral care of a parish by their bishop (Canon 517.2). Yet even here, the parish life coordinator, as this person is often titled, must still do their best to arrange for priests to be available for Masses and other sacraments.

Priests cannot be in two places at once and there are only so many hours in a Sunday. We have a good understanding of how many parishes there are in the United States and how many priests are available. The map below (click for full size) shows the number of parishes subtracted from the number of active diocesan priests in each diocese. From time to time priests from outside the diocese may come and serve (i.e., externs) to fill needs. It is also the case, as noted above, that many religious priests serve in parishes as well (although their numbers are in decline). But the core of parish life has been diocesan priests serving in their diocese. In 60% of dioceses, those marked in yellow and red, there is no surplus of diocesan priests active in ministry relative to the number of parishes in the diocese.

The green areas on the map have more active diocesan priests than parishes. These include a number of urban areas. But even here the math gets tricky. An urban priest who is a pastor of one parish may be responsible for serving the needs of 5,000 registered households, while a rural priest in one of the red areas of the map may serve as pastor in three parishes in one county with 200 registered households in each parish. That rural pastor may be able to serve the needs of these communities by himself, whereas the urban pastor may need a parochial vicar and a retired priest to assist him and still struggle to meet the needs of his community. Green and red are not always as "clear" as it might seem in practice.

Yet the math does say something important. A "traditional" model of parish where one can find a priest at any time of day or night is not possible in many areas of the United States (to some degree in rural areas and the South this has always been the case and certainly has long been a reality in many other areas of the world). How will parish life change in the future if the U.S. Catholic population continues to grow while the number of priests in the country continues to decline? This would likely create more pressure to close and consolidate parishes at the very time that population growth would indicate a need for new construction.

CARA research indicates the average parish has more than 3,200 registered parishioners along with some unknown (and likely growing) number of unregistered households (...in a recent national CARA survey 55% of adult Catholics said they were in a registered household. This percentage has been falling in the last decade. Only eight in ten of those surveyed in pew during Mass say they are registered). About 1,100 of these parishioners attend a Mass in a typical week. The average seating capacity of Catholic churches is about 540 per Mass. The average parish has about four Saturday/Sunday Vigil Masses per week.

In an era of fewer priests, one could reduce the number of Masses, outside of holidays, down to the "demand" capacity (i.e., enough open seats for Mass attenders). One could also reduce and consolidate parishes to the degree possible (...what is the maximum distance people would be willing and able to travel?). The Church can (...and has in the past) invited priests from overseas to serve here to balance the equation as well. In 1999, international priests made up 8% of all priests in the United States. Today, they are 16% of all priests in the country.

It is also the case that what the United States is experiencing right now is not an entirely new reality—just one many have forgotten in the pages of history. As shown in the figure below, the ratio of diocesan priests active in their diocese to parishes in the United States of 1950 was very similar to what it was in 2012.

There was about one active diocesan priest per parish then as there is now. The late 1950s into the 1970s represent an exceptional period in American history when there were significantly more active diocesan priests available than there were parishes. Age and mortality has and continues to diminish the size of the diocesan clergy population. Although ordinations have remained stable for decades, these are not sufficient to make up for the number of priests lost each year to retirement or death.

Although 2012 may not have felt all that different from 2011, it did represent a new era of parish life in the United States: parishes are beginning to outnumber a key population of priests. Coinciding with recent efforts in New Evangelization and welcoming new or returning parishioners to communities, it seems unimaginable to simultaneously be reducing the number of parishes and/or Masses. Instead, it may be time to more boldly let the country know that the Church is "now hiring."

And there may be more help on the way. Recent CARA research has shown that young men attending a World Youth Day are 4.5 times more likely than those who have not attended to consider becoming a priest or religious brother and one fifth of newly ordained U.S. priests in 2013 say they attended a World Youth Day. With more than 3 million in attendance, the final Mass of World Youth Day in Rio this year is one of the largest gatherings in human history. Somewhere on that beach may be your future pastor...

Image above courtesy of galeriaes.gaudiumpress at Flickr Creative Commons.

Millions of Never-Married Catholics Have Considered Vocations

We've focused on Catholics' consideration of vocations before. But we've never had a whole survey devoted to the topic... until now. In winter 2012, the Secretariat of Clergy, Consecrated Life and Vocations of the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops commissioned CARA to conduct a national poll of never-married Catholics ages 14 and older regarding their consideration of a vocation. CARA partnered with GfK Custom Research (formerly Knowledge Networks) to conduct the survey in May and June 2012. The survey was completed by 1,428 respondents (resulting in a margin of sampling error of ±2.6 percentage points).

The study, available online now, has many surprises. Although many speak of priest shortages and steep declines in the number of men and women religious, the survey reveals that there is no shortage of individuals who seriously consider these vocations among never-married Catholics in the United States. Three percent of men say they have "very seriously" considered becoming a priest or religious brother and 2 percent of women indicate they have "very seriously" considered becoming a religious sister. This is equivalent to 352,800 never-married men and 254,800 never-married women. Millions of never-married Catholics are estimated to have considered these vocations at least "a little seriously" based on the survey results.

This study identifies subgroups in the never-married Catholic population—including teens and adults—and compares those who have considered a vocation at least "a little seriously" to those who say they have not considered this or who say they did so, but not seriously. Overall, 12 percent of male respondents say they considered becoming a priest or brother at least a little seriously. Ten percent of female respondents say they considered becoming a religious sister at least a little seriously. The subgroups that are especially likely to have considered a vocation include:

• Weekly Mass attenders (now and in high school)
• Those who attended Catholic educational institutions at any level (excluding parish-based religious education)
• Those who participated in Church-related groups, programs, or activities as a youth or young adult
• Those who lived in households where parents talked to them about religion at least once a week
• Those who say their faith is the most important part of their life (now and in high school)
• Those who participate in prayer and devotional activities, groups, or programs (e.g., Bible study, Eucharistic adoration, retreats, or prayer groups)
• Those who pray the rosary at least weekly (alone or in a group)
• Those belonging to a group that encourages devotion to Mary
• Those who were encouraged to consider a vocation by someone else (e.g., family, friends, clergy, religious)
• Those who regularly read the Bible or pray with Scripture
• Those who personally know priests and men and women religious (in their extended family or outside of it)
• Those who have participated in parish ministry (e.g., Lectors, Ministers of Holy Communion, Youth Ministers)
• Those who have participated in World Youth Day or a National Catholic Youth Conference
• Those who have recently accessed religious and spiritual content in traditional or new media

The study utilizes a form of regression analysis to sort through these different influences (and more) to isolate those that are most important and influential. 

Consideration of Becoming a Priest or Religious Brother among Men
Among male respondents, after controlling for all other factors, those who attended a Catholic secondary school (grades 9-12) are more likely to have considered becoming a priest or religious brother. Compared to those who did not attend a Catholic secondary school, these respondents are more than six times as likely to have considered a vocation. Participation in a parish youth group during primary school years (grades K-8) is also strongly related to vocational consideration. These respondents are more than five times as likely to consider a becoming a priest or religious brother than those who did not participate in a parish youth group. Given that 75 percent of male respondents who have considered a vocation report that they first did so when they were 18 or younger, these two results provide some of the strongest evidence of a possible causal effect.

Encouragement from others is also important. Respondents who have one person encouraging them are nearly twice as likely to consider a vocation as those who are not encouraged. Each additional person encouraging these respondents increases the likelihood of consideration. The effect is additive. Respondents who had three persons encourage them would be expected to be more than five times more likely to consider a vocation than someone who was not encouraged by anyone.

Knowing someone who has become a priest, religious sister or brother, or seminarian also has a positive effect. Respondents who personally know one of these individuals are more than one and a half times more likely than someone who does not to consider a vocation themselves. This effect is also additive and knowing more of these individuals would be expected to increase the likelihood of a respondent considering a vocation.

Attendance at World Youth Day or at a National Catholic Youth Conference has a positive effect for male consideration of a vocation. Those who attended either of these events are more than four times as likely as those who have not to say they have considered becoming a priest or brother.

Finally, those who have recently used traditional media (television, radio, print) to access content about religion or spirituality in the 12 months prior to the survey are more likely than those who did not to say they have considered a vocation. Note however, that this media use in most cases occurred well after their initial consideration. Thus, what this more likely demonstrates is that people who have considered a vocation are more likely than those who have not to use traditional media to currently follow religion and spirituality content. Those who have used one type of traditional media in the last year are nearly twice as likely to say they have considered a vocation than those who have not used these media recently. The effect is additive, so use of two or three traditional media to access religious or spiritual content is associated with an even greater likelihood of vocational consideration. This finding is potentially useful in understanding how male never-married Catholics who have considered becoming a priest or religious brother can be reached now.

Note that neither generation nor race and ethnicity are statistically significant in the full model. Thus, there is nothing about a person’s age or race and ethnicity that are associated with lower or higher likelihoods of consideration, controlling for all other factors. Any disproportionality in the race and ethnicity of men who decide to become priests or religious brothers are in part likely to be related to being less likely to attend Catholic schools or to be involved in youth groups, comparatively lower levels of encouragement, or not personally knowing clergy or religious. This could also be related to factors that are important after consideration of a vocation is made by individuals, such as meeting requirements for entry into a formation program.

Consideration of Becoming a Religious Sister among Women
Among female respondents, the model predicting consideration of becoming a religious sister includes many parallel results to the model for male respondents. 

Whereas secondary school is important for male vocational consideration, it is attendance at a Catholic primary school which is important for female vocational consideration. Female respondents who attended a Catholic primary school are more than three times as likely as those who did not to consider becoming a religious sister. Parish youth group participation is also important for female respondents. However, unlike males, it is participation during high school years rather than primary school years that has an effect. Women who participated in a parish youth group during these teen years are more than nine times as likely to consider becoming a religious sister.

Similar to male respondents, encouragement is also a positive factor. With nearly the same effect as is demonstrated among men, women are nearly twice as likely to consider a vocation when encouraged by another person to do so.

Also parallel to men, women who have used traditional media in the last year to consume or follow religious or spiritual content are more likely than those who do not to say they have considered a vocation.

Among the adults surveyed (excluding those ages 14 to 17 in the sample) who say they have considered a vocation, most report that they did so between the ages of 13 and 24. Additionally, one in four Catholic females who have considered becoming a religious sister did so before they were a teenager. 

Although most Catholics who are becoming priests, religious brothers, or religious sisters now are typically in their 30s or even older, it is likely that the roots of these vocations were established in their teen years or even earlier.

In Their Own Words
Respondents who said they had never considered a vocation were asked in an open ended question, “Why do you think you have never considered this?” Their responses to this question were coded into categories based on their content.

Among male respondents who have never considered a vocation as a priest or religious brother, the most common responses to the question were related to a general lack of interest (39 percent), celibacy (18 percent), not having a calling to seek a vocation (8 percent), having other life goals (8 percent), and having some doubts about their faith or not feeling religious enough to seek a vocation (8 percent). One percent of comments referenced the issue of sexual abuse of minors by clergy.

Among female respondents who have never considered a vocation as a religious sister, the most common responses were related to a general lack of interest (31 percent), celibacy (16 percent), not having a calling to seek a vocation (11 percent), discomfort with the lifestyle they would need to adopt (10 percent), and having some doubts about their faith or not feeling religious enough to seek a vocation (9 percent).

What Was Behind the 1960s Vocation Boom? Not Your Mom or Dad Apparently...

In 1966 there were nearly 60,000 priests in ministry in the United States and only about 17,900 parishes. Few were concerned with the notion of a "priest shortage." There were also more than 176,000 religious sisters and 12,500 religious brothers. This was the ultimate time of plenty for the Church in America. Catholic parents must have been a big part of that.

I didn't talk to your mom about this but sociologist Father Joseph H. Fichter, S.J. may have. Especially if you grew up in Illinois. Deep in the CARA archives sits an historical gem of social science, "Catholic Parents and the Church Vocation" published in 1967 using data from 1964 Fichter survey (CARA is in the process of digitizing its public print archives for future online distribution...stay tuned on that).

As Louis Luzbetak, S.V.D., CARA's Executive Director at the time notes, "There is no diocese in the United States that has at hand such a wealth of information about the image of its priests and religious, and about the corresponding parental attitudes toward Church vocations...as does the Diocese of Peoria, Illinois." Corporations frequently test products in Columbus, Ohio because it is supposed to be representative of the country as a whole. Think of Peoria being a similar type of locale for Catholicism in the 1960s ("Will it play Peoria?," middle America, sitting squarely between Chicago and St. Louis). Fichter and a group of academics and practitioners developed the survey and tested it first as a pilot survey of 1,287 Catholic parents in New Orleans in 1963. Then after revisions in 1964, fielded the survey in Peoria to 8,689 Catholic parents through their parishes. In half of the surveys the father was asked to complete the form and in the other half the mother.

These parents were asked if they had ever considered a vocation (i.e., men as priests or brothers and women as religious sisters). Six in ten indicated they had never considered this. Only 6% of the Catholic parents surveyed said they had considered a vocation seriously and 1% indicated they had entered the seminary or convent and had left. Among fathers more specifically, 5% had considered becoming a priest seriously and 2% had entered seminary and left. Seven percent of mothers had considered becoming a religious sister and 1% had entered a convent but left. By comparison, 3% of adult Catholic men today say they "very" seriously considered becoming a priest or brother and less than 1% of adult Catholic women say they "very" seriously becoming a religious sister (note that serious interest in vocations is a bit higher among never-married Catholic adults and teens and this still translates into a large number in absolute terms).

 

Parents were then asked if they thought they should promote vocations to their children. Surprisingly, many did not feel they should. I think this stands in stark contrast to our "memories" of this period. Only 17% said they thought they should encourage vocations. Additionally, 25% said they should just "initiate a discussion" of vocations. Parents were most likely to say their child should "bring it up first" (31%). Four percent said they should pray for their child to be interested in a vocation but mention nothing to them about this and 23% said it should be left "completely in the hands of God." I would not be surprised to see survey results like this in 2013 but it sounds a bit off coming from the parents of 1964 (...especially when we know now that encouragement is so important in fostering vocations).

Regardless of encouragement from a parent, what if a 13-year-old Catholic had interest in a vocation in 1964? What would a mom or dad think is the right course to follow? A majority of parents surveyed wanted their son or daughter to finish high school first. About one in seven thought their child should go off to study for their vocation right away at 13 and 13% wanted them to have at least a few years of high school before doing this. Thus, more than eight in ten Catholic parents in 1964 thought the path to a vocation begins as a teenager (note that even today most Catholics say they first consider a vocation as a teen).

Ironically, parents had quite different attitudes about dating. As shown in the figure below, 86% of parents surveyed thought their sons should not "go steady" with someone until he was 18 or older and 73% of parents said the same about their daughters. Thus, a significant portion of parents thought that consideration of a vocation and perhaps pursuit of this should and would begin before their son or daughter ever had a steady girlfriend or boyfriend.

Parents were most likely to say that their sons might not consider a vocation because he would be attracted to other occupations (27%). They thought their daughters might not do so because of they would be attracted to the opposite sex (33%).

If their child was interested in a vocation, most parents had no preference for a specific area of Church ministry that they enter. If they did indicate a preference, parents more often than not preferred their sons to become diocesan priests (27%) and their daughters to enter an "active teaching order" (24%).

If their daughter entered an order, many did not expect her to have much contact with them. One of the more interesting details of the study is in its testing. When the pilot was fielded in New Orleans, parents were asked if they would favor religious sisters being allowed to eat at the Blue Room, play golf on public links, attend Sugar Bowl games, and direct girl scouts. This series of questions was modified (beyond regional relevance) because the researchers found that "these suggestions were apparently too 'far out'" for the respondents to consider. The figure below shows the final question wording and results for this series in Peoria.

While most in 1964, thought that it was just fine for sisters to read newspapers, watch television, have a yearly vacation back at home, attend cultural events in the evening, and accept dinner invitations, there were more mixed opinions about them being able to eat in public restaurants, wear up-to-date clothing, or join civic organizations. 

While the results for what sisters should be "allowed" to do or for the age when young Catholics should be allowed to "go steady" may seem odd 50 years on, what is even more remarkable to me is how the parents of 1964 were not all that different to those of 2013 in terms of what they see as their responsibility to be in encouraging their children for a vocation. In fact it creates a bit of a mystery. In the heart of the biggest vocations boom this country has ever known, parental encouragement and their own personal consideration of a vocation is not far off from what it is among parents today. I guess there is some "good news" in that. There are some other X-factors out there that were responsible for that boom which could surface again some day.

Changes in Number of Parishes... and Congressional Seats?

At CARA we are often called by reporters working on stories about parish closures. Almost always the reporter is looking for a quote or statistic that can confirm their assumption that the closure of a parish is a new sign of an imploding Catholic Church (it's a common narrative!).

We typically have to caution the reporter on jumping to conclusions based on a single anecdote and then ask a few questions ourselves. Is this parish in an urban area? Is it located in the Northeast or Midwest? Is there a priest shortage in the diocese? All these factors are more likely to be the root of the closure rather than the generalized impending doom in many reporters' heads. I've commented on why this narrative is so misleading elsewhere.

Here is a new correlation to ponder. Today the U.S. Census Bureau released results that will affect the apportionment of the U.S. House of Representatives. The big winners? The South and West and especially Texas (picking up 4 seats). The losers? The Northeast and Midwest which have both become smaller population regions.

Here is a nice summary and map of these changes from the Boston Globe. 

Compare the map linked above to the one below that represents changes at the state-level in the number of Catholic parishes from CARA researcher Mary Gautier:

Why is there such a strong resemblance? Do parish closures cause losses of House seats? Of course not. That would confuse correlation with causation. However, both have common roots: population shifts and changes. The biggest gainer in both parishes and House seats? Texas. On the other hand the greatest losses are seen in New York.

Pies, damned pies, and statistics: Is the Catholic population growing?

Are you Catholic and in need of something to be thankful for this year? The Catholic Church in America is growing and may be primed to grow significantly in the next few decades.

What did he just say? All the Catholic-related stories in the news are about parish and school closings, a Church in crisis, and people leaving the faith…

First, the news is not always a good reflection of reality. A big part of the problem is that many reporters and commentators on religion seemingly have a limited understanding of the basic properties of a simple mathematical expression—percentages. This gets dangerous when combined with a nasty human habit of only using numbers and statistics when they fit the narrative one is seeking to display (while avoiding the data that disconfirms it).

At this point you could choose to quote Mark Twain but that will not make reality disappear (by the way Twain was neither a statistician nor the originator of the infamous phrase—he thought he was quoting Disraeli. And even this was likely an incorrect attribution).

So here is that necessary dose of reality… Since the end of World War II, on average, 25% of the U.S. adult population has self-identified in national surveys as Catholic (±2 to 3 percentage points attributable to margin of sampling error). This spans many trusted sources from commercial polling by Gallup and others, news media polls, exit polls, and academic surveys such as the General Social Survey and the World Values Survey. For example, in the Pew Religious Landscape Survey—the study most often quoted or cited in stories about the Catholic Church in crisis, the Catholic population percentage was 23.9% (±0.6 percentage points).

When cited, these historical results are often characterized as evidence of a tenuous “stability” in the Catholic population. Many seem to believe this means a lack of growth and new membership—even stagnation in the Church. This is a distortion of reality.

What if you were coming over to my house for Thanksgiving this year and as in the past I always give you a slice of pumpkin pie that is equal to 25% of the total pie dish. But in years past I always used 8 inch pans to cook the pie and this year I am using 12 inch pans. You are still only getting exactly 25%. Will you be eating more this year? Of course! The pan is 50% bigger.

The figure below shows growth, in two dimensions, of the Catholic population over the course of American history. Early estimates (pre-polling) are drawn from The Churching of America 1776-1990 (Roger Finke and Rodney Stark, Rutgers University Press, 1994) while the later rely on multiple national public polls (example). The chart tracks growth in the Catholic population percentage from 2% in 1776 (45,000) to 25% in 2010 (77.7 million). The size of the circles represents the total size of the Catholic population.

In both 1975 and 2010, the estimated Catholic population percentage is 25%. Yet the difference in individuals these identical percentages represent is 23.2 million people (54.5 million in 1975 compared to 77.7 million in 2010). Is that stability or growth? If you were baking them all pies you better consider it growth.

In the last 40 years, the Catholic population has grown by about 75%. If it did the same in the next 40 years it would be 136 million in 2050 and represent about 31% of the projected U.S. population at that time. This however is an unlikely scenario as overall population growth has slowed in the United States and is expected to slow more as the Baby Boom, and the "echoes" from it, fade.

The figure below shows a range of three projections.

The lowest estimate is based on a regression method—which ignores expected population growth as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau in the future and instead relies simply on applying an average estimate of change in the number of Catholics in each year from the historical record into the future. This is an extraordinarily conservative approach as we know some population growth is likely to occur and some of that growth will include more new Catholics. If this scenario were to unfold the Catholic population would increase by only 23% from 2010 to 2050, when it would then be 21% of the U.S. population at about 95.4 million (NOTE: This may be the most likely scenario given research conducted by CARA in Feb. 2013).

This is a good example of one of the seemingly most difficult concepts involving percentages for people to understand… The Catholic population percentage could decline from 25% of the U.S. population in 2010 to 21% in 2050 and there still would be more Catholics in 2050 then there were in 2010.  The proportion of the slice would have grown smaller but the pie has grown larger and thus the amount of pie in the slice will be bigger.

The next two projections are rooted in Census data—the actual projections the Bureau foresees for the total U.S. population.

The mid-range projection is simple. If the future replicates the past 65 years, in which Catholics have been 25% of the U.S. population, the number of Catholics in America will grow by 41% and total 109.8 million in 2050. Given several decades of history this may be the most likely future to expect. However, there are other important demographic changes ahead that may boost the Catholic population even higher…

The final and highest projection accounts for differences by race and ethnicity. In recent years, polling has consistently indicated that about 60% to 65% of Hispanics/Latinos in the United States self-identify as Catholic. However, there is also evidence that this percentage is dipping slightly lower. This projection assumes this falls even further—to only about 55% and that Catholic self-identification among the non-Hispanic population measures about 18.5%. Both assumptions are on the conservative side. However, even with only assuming 55% Catholic identification among Hispanics/Latinos, the rapid growth expected in this sub-group will likely boost Catholic population numbers significantly (this is even the case if it falls further than 55%). This projection leads to an expected growth in the Catholic population of 65% between 2010 and 2050 with a Catholic population total of 128 million in 40 years, representing 29.2% of the total U.S. population.

The Census Bureau’s 2010 Current Population Survey (CPS) estimates that 16.1% of the U.S. population self-identifies as Hispanic or Latino. This is expected to grow to 29.2% in 2050 (after registering 12.5% in Census 2000). This projection estimates that in 2038 there will be more Catholics who self-identify as Hispanic/Latino than those who do not. It is also important to note that although non-Hispanics will become a smaller percentage of the Catholic population in this projection, this segment will still be growing—just at a slower rate (by an estimated 19% between 2010 and 2050).

You likely have questions and comments (let me guess)…

Q: Didn’t Pew find that nearly “one in three” people raised Catholic leave the faith leading to an astounding “one in ten” adult Americans who are formerly Catholic? How could the population grow with losses like these?

A: This study did indeed. I have commented on this for CARA and in America where I called this the “phantom crisis.”  Let me provide a metaphor with a non-religious example. In the last year, Laurie Goodstein of The New York Times has frequently cited Catholic population losses in her coverage of the Church. I'll use The Times as my example:

The Times is currently operating in “severe” crisis. It has incurred a loss of 20% of its paid subscriptions in the last decade and its stock price has plunged 74% during this same period. Things have turned so poorly that recently the publisher announced that an eventual “stop print” date is in future sight. Also, 100% of readers of The New York Times die.

The statement above is unfair and although true, only partially so. Many other papers have and are facing steep declines in circulation and 100% of readers of all newspapers die eventually. The statistics I used above isolate The Times out of context of wider trends or comparisons to other newspapers. Perhaps what The Times is experiencing is quite “normal” or even better than what other papers are going through given the technological, cultural, and social changes occurring in the United States and around the world. The example also ignores The Times online presence and the large amount of traffic it attracts as well the effect of the recession on its stock price.

Similarly, the ubiquitous Catholic “one in three” finding drawn from the Pew study is consistently quoted without context. Most often the number is used to drive a narrative—an undeniable signal of extraordinary crisis. For example, a recent article in Commonweal, Peter Steinfels notes “one out of every three adult Americans who were raised Catholic have left the Church” and characterizes these as “devastating losses” and a sign of “American Catholicism’s crumbling condition.”

Yet, quoting the “one in three” result of the Pew study in isolation can be extraordinarily misleading. Below is a visual of the typical context provided in the media.

The different and fuller view below provides the correct perspective.

All things considered, Catholicism does a better job of keeping those raised in the faith than any Protestant denomination (68% of those raised Catholic remain so as adults). The typical response to this is “but Protestants are just switching denominations” as if moving from one denomination to another is similar to Catholics switching parishes and having your records “sent over.” In the real world (as opposed to the categorizations within sociology of religion) such a point of view seems a bit foolish.

As a term, “Protestant” has significant meaning historically and sociologically but it is not an institution and few Americans actually identify their faith as such and instead name the denomination of their church. If someone leaves a Methodist church for a Baptist church that is a real change for the individual and both churches. The churches have independent memberships, styles of worship, and are completely separate entities. I don’t think Presbyterian churches are just “fine” with losing an estimated 59% of those raised in that denomination if these individuals simply go to another Protestant denomination. I’m sure they consider these losses religious switching and real change regardless of the characterizations researchers or the media attempt to make about people “just going to another Protestant church.”

Also, the Pew study did not discover some “new” phenomenon of religious switching. This is rather old news among social scientists who study religion (e.g., see Bradley Wright, a sociologist, and Rodney Stark, an economist, commenting in “The Leavers”). However, it was news to the media and the general public who seem to believe the switching is as recent as the study and news stories about it. 

The losses that the Catholic Church has experienced are regrettable but also quite normal (and as shown above among the most minimal compared to other religions or even the “Nones”). In a free and religiously diverse country, no religion will keep 100% of those raised in the faith and are unlikely to maintain even 90% or 80%. Note that Pew’s Religious Landscape Survey report estimates that 31.4% of the U.S. adult population was raised Catholic. However, you will never find a time historically in the data when anywhere near 31.4% of the U.S. population actually self-identified as Catholic. How can this be? Because losses have occurred over such a long period of time. Many believe the Pew study indicates a recent mass exodus from the Church. This is clearly not the case. Both Pew and CARA research shows the losses have occurred over many decades—the lifespans to date of all those alive now who were raised Catholic. CARA surveys indicate a half of the losses occurred before 1988 and there is no year or short period of time that stands out as an outlier that would indicate a sudden large drop in Catholic affiliation. 

The losses incurred by the Catholic Church have also most often been among a very specific group—young people. As Pew found in a follow-up to the Religious Landscape study: “Almost half of Catholics who are now unaffiliated (48%) left Catholicism before reaching age 18, as did one-third who are now Protestant. Among both groups, an additional three-in-ten left the Catholic Church as young adults between ages 18 and 23. Only one-fifth who are now unaffiliated (21%) and one-third who are now Protestant (34%) departed after turning age 24. Among those who left the Catholic Church as minors, most say it was their own decision rather than their parents’ decision.” Similarly, CARA surveys have estimated the median age of a former Catholic to be 21. Thus, the poster-image for former Catholics is not a middle-aged New Englander of European descent storming out of the pews in anger. Instead it is a disaffected teenager.

Following the Pew study, many now often frequently cite that “one in ten Americans” is formerly Catholic. What these individuals seem not to realize that one in four is Catholic. In general people don’t have a good understanding of the sheer size of the Catholic population. For example, I have noted elsewhere that the recent trend in infant baptisms is down slightly. However, there are still enough people joining the Catholic Church each year to sustain the population. In 2009, The Official Catholic Directory reported 857,410 infant baptisms, 43,279 adult baptisms, and 75,724 receptions into full communion in U.S. dioceses. This totals 976,413 in one year (and does not include the number of former Catholics who have returned to the faith or immigrants who entered the Church elsewhere and who moved to the U.S. in this year). To put that in context, the number of new Catholics in 2009 would make this one-year cohort of new Catholics approximately the 26th largest membership Christian church in the United States (also similar in size to all Jehovah’s Witnesses or about half of all Muslims in the United States).

Q: The Catholic Church is inflating their numbers. There is no way this many people are still Catholic.

A: The Church has very little to do with the data utilized here. They are derived from polls over which the Church has no control or influence as well as U.S. Census data. The polling estimates are based on “self-identification” of respondents and these are almost always larger than the Church’s own estimates either in The Official Catholic Directory or Vatican statistical publications.

Q: Aren’t surveys only conducted with adults?

A: Yes, surveys typically only include adults age 18 or older. Thus simply applying these percentages to total population figures (including those under 18) may not reflect reality precisely. However, it is likely that the Catholic percentage of the under 18 population is even higher than it is for adults. Why? Latinos in America—of which about 60% to 65% currently self-identify as Catholic—are more likely to be of parenting age than those of other races and ethnicities and have a higher fertility rate than non-Hispanics. Thus, there are reasons to believe that applying the adult Catholic population percentage to total population figures underestimates the total size of the U.S. Catholic population.

Q: What about all the parish closures. This is a sure sign of decline. How can the Catholic population grow at a time like this?

A: As one can see from the first figure above, few Catholics resided in the United States at its founding. Nearly all have come later as immigrants and continue to do so. For generations Catholic immigrants have often started their new lives in industrial urban areas. They created parishes where others spoke the same language. Sometimes a Polish parish would be built across from a parish where Italian was the language in use. The sheer number of people involved led to a boom in parish construction and along with schools—often in close proximity to each other. Yet, in the post-World War II era things began to shift. Many Catholics moved to the suburbs and away from the Northeast and Midwest into the Sunbelt. New waves of Catholic immigration from Latin America have led to even more growth in the South from coast to coast. The Catholic population has realigned itself in the course of a few generations. People move, parishes and schools do not. Many of the parish and school closings one reads about are in inner cities of the Northeast and Midwest where Catholic population has waned.

Another factor in parish closures is the priest shortage. Yet, even in these cases adjustments are often being made. New models of parish ministry are emerging to ensure the vitality of parish life including the use of shared ministries, clustered parishes, and Canon 517.2. Also, international priests continue to step in to meet the needs of a growing Catholic population.

Q: What about the clergy sex abuse crisis? I know people who have left the Church over this.

A: Some have, but the data indicate fewer than many assume. Pew found that fewer than 3% of former Catholics cited sex abuse when asked to describe in their own words the main reason for leaving the Catholic Church. When presented with a list of potential reasons from which they could select all that applied to their decision, 27% of former Catholics who are now unaffiliated cited sex abuse as one of the reasons for leaving and 21% of those who are now members of a Protestant denomination responded as such. For those now unaffiliated 71% said they just “gradually drifted away.” Among those now members of a Protestant denomination 71% said their “spiritual needs [were] not being met” by the Catholic Church and 70% said they “found a religion they liked more.”

If one extrapolates, using the percentages from the Pew surveys and population data, to estimate the number of adults who have left the faith primarily (i.e., the main reason in their own words) because of the sex abuse crisis, this totals about 700,000. If one also includes all those who cited it as one of multiple reasons there are more than 5.6 million former adult Catholics who are estimated to have left the Church in-part because of the sex abuse crisis—although other issues were important to their decision as well. Note, these individuals could have left at any time in the last six decades having had local knowledge and experience with this in addition to the other reasons they cite for having left the faith and not necessarily post-2002 when this became a national story (as noted above, there is no uptick in disaffiliation in the data for the 2000s). If these 5.6 million former Catholics had remained affiliated the Catholic population percentage in the U.S. would currently be 26.8% rather than the estimated 25%.

Q: Who cares if the Catholic population is growing while Mass attendance declines?

A: Although Catholic Mass attendance did decline in recent decades from a peak in the 1950s, there has been no decline in Mass attendance percentages nationally in the last decade. Just under one in four Catholics attends Mass every week. About a third of Catholics attend in any given week and more than two-thirds attend Mass at Christmas, Easter, and on Ash Wednesday. More than four in ten self-identified Catholics attend Mass at least once a month.

As I have noted in OSV this current stable trend in Mass attendance along with Catholic population growth will likely limit the possibility of additional parish closings in the future.

I am also always confused by individuals who ask a question or make a comment like this. Isn’t the hope of the Church to bring infrequently practicing Catholics back to being more active? Isn’t that what many recent diocesan media campaigns have focused on and the whole point of something like Catholics Come Home not to mention more broadly New Evangelization? Is the Church supposed to ignore the growing number of people in the United States who identify themselves as a member of that faith and focus only on those attending each week? To do so seems like it might even accelerate losses rather than stem them.

Q: If a growing numbers of Catholics self-identify their ethnicity as Hispanic or Latino doesn’t that mean the non-Hispanic Catholics left the Church?

A: Depends on what you mean by “left.” The primary engine behind the growing diversity in the Church is immigration and higher fertility among many of these immigrant communities. A population can shrink dramatically—in a matter of a few generations—if it does not biologically reproduce itself (let alone culturally reproduce itself). Catholics of European ancestry have not replaced themselves at the same rate of Hispanic/Latino Catholics. A couple must have two children to replace themselves, and more children to account for growth. It is not that non-Hispanic Catholics are leaving the faith as in getting up out of the pews and storming out of the Church. Instead many are ‘leaving’ by passing away without ever having contributed to population growth. However, as noted in the projections above, the non-Hispanic Catholic population will continue to grow in the future—just at a slower rate than Hispanic Catholics. 

Q: But I believe the headlines because I have several close friends who used to be Catholic and are just nothing now.

A: Your friends are very unlikely to be a sufficiently-sized random sample of the total or Catholic U.S. adult population. I’m sure they are nice people but what you are presenting is an anecdote. This means little in terms of scientific measurement.

Q: I don’t believe you.

A: That’s OK. I don’t take it personally and the future will unfold as it will regardless of our opinions. If you would like something else to read try this story from TIME Magazine. Take the Catholic population on the day this story went into print and add about 30 million and you’ll have the total for 2010.

Above photo courtesy of pauladamsmith at Flickr Creative Commons.

Do Catholic Schools Matter?

Do Catholic schools matter? This might be the question I hear more than any other (…and my colleague Mary Gautier has previously provided some answers in NCR using different data sources than what I show below). With the school year at an end here is the most current view…

The economics of schooling in many areas has become very difficult—especially in the Northeast and Midwest where many of the oldest schools are located (often in urban areas where few Catholic families reside today. For more on this: 1, 2). Whenever funding becomes tight people begin to make cost and benefit decisions.

What are the benefits? There is certainly no shortage of research on how these schools perform academically. Results lean heavily toward comparatively positive outcomes but sometimes it is difficult to disentangle these from issues of student self-selection and school admission decisions. Regardless, few question the ability of Catholic schools to educate students academically.

CARA surveys of parents reveal that the top reason parents chose to enroll children in Catholic schools is not for academics but for “quality religious education” followed by a “safe environment” (Primary Trends, Challenges, and Outlook: Catholic Elementary Schools Since 2000). “Quality academic instruction” ranks third for the reasons parents choose Catholic schools (...parents cite “tuition costs” as their biggest problem in enrolling their children followed by “insufficient tuition assistance”). Thus, if one is looking to measure “benefits” perhaps the top concern is in how well Catholic schools provide religious education and the eventual formation of knowledgeable and active Catholic adults.

It would be easy to just compare all Catholics who went to a Catholic school to all those who had not in our national surveys of self-identified Catholics. However, there are significant differences in the proportion of Catholics who attended these schools by generation. Also much has changed on these campuses. For example, schools used to be staffed mostly by religious women and men as well as clergy. Now the vast majority of school staffs are composed of lay women and men.

In CARA’s recent national surveys of the adult Catholic population (CARA Catholic Polls) a majority of those of the Pre-Vatican II Generation (born before 1943) and the Vatican II Generation (born 1943 to 1960) say they attended a Catholic primary school (51%). However, in the generations that followed many fewer report enrollment. Only 37% of Post-Vatican II Generation (born 1961 to 1981) Catholics and 23% of Millennial Generation (born 1982 or later) Catholics have attended a Catholic primary school at some point.

Perhaps the most straightforward test is to examine the effect of Catholic schooling on Mass attendance. The figure below shows Mass attendance by generation and by previous enrollment in a Catholic school as a child (…note the schooling sub-groups are not mutually exclusive. One could have attended both a Catholic primary and secondary school). Generally, those who attended a Catholic school attend Mass more frequently than those who did not attend a Catholic school in each generation. However, differences become more pronounced (and statistically significant) among younger Catholics—those of the Post-Vatican II and Millennial generations. Most Millennials did not attend a Catholic school and few of those in this group attend Mass every week (5%). A third or more of those who did attend Catholic schools are weekly attenders. I’m sure the Church would wish attendance levels were even higher among young Catholic school alumni. At the same time, if Catholic schools disappeared the Church might expect future Mass attendance levels to be well below 10% outside of Christmas, Easter, and Ash Wednesday services.

It is also the case that without schools the Church might also expect to have fewer Catholics in the United States overall. The number of confirmations celebrated in the United States has been in decline since 2009. Part of this decline is likely linked to current changes in Catholic schooling. As shown below, the likelihood that one has been confirmed is correlated with having attended a Catholic school. Among Millennials, only two-thirds of those who never attend a Catholic school are confirmed compared to 82% of those who attend a Catholic primary school and 91% of those who attend a Catholic high school.

Yet this figure likely underestimates the impact of schools on teens and young adults. As Pew found in the 2009 study, Faith in Flux, “Religious change begins early in life. Most of those who decided to leave their childhood faith say they did so before reaching age 24. … Religious commitment as a child and teenager may be related to the propensity to change religion. The survey finds key differences, for example, in the levels of teenage (ages 13-18) religious commitment between former Catholics who have become unaffiliated and those who have kept their childhood faith. Former Catholics who are now unaffiliated are much less likely than lifelong Catholics to have attended Mass regularly or to have had very strong faith as teenagers.”

It is very likely that some Catholics who never attend a Catholic school leave the faith before or shortly after becoming adults. These losses are not captured in the figure above, which only includes those who continue to self-identify as Catholic as adults. A 2003 CARA Catholic Poll estimated that nearly eight in ten Americans raised Catholic who had attend Catholic schools (primary and/or secondary) self-identified as Catholics as an adult. By comparison fewer seven in ten of those raised Catholic who did not attend a Catholic school remained Catholic as adults (CARA has not replicated the sampling and series of questions needed to measure this by Catholic schooling since 2003. However, it is known that retention rates overall have fallen since that time).
   
Another key area where Catholic schools have a strong impact is on vocations. As shown below, among never-married Millennial Generation male Catholics (ages 14 and older surveyed for CARA’s Consideration of Priesthood and Religious Life Among Never-Married U.S. Catholics) who have attended a Catholic school, more than one in four indicate that they have considered becoming a priest or brother. Only about one in ten of those who did not attend a Catholic educational institution indicate this. Also shown below, among never-married Post-Vatican II and Millennial Generation female Catholics (ages 14 and older) who have attended a Catholic school, 13% or more indicate that they have considered becoming a sister or nun. Only about 6% to 7% of those who did not attend a Catholic educational institution indicate this. 

 

If fewer and fewer Catholics enroll in Catholic schools in the future either because of changing preferences or a lack of schools it will become ever more challenging for the Catholic Church to foster vocations to the priesthood and religious life. The connection between Catholic schooling and interest in vocations is found to be robust and statistically significant even after controlling for a variety of other factors (e.g., enrollment in parish-based religious education, frequency of Mass attendance, race and ethnicity, income, other youth experiences).

Catholic schools are part of a pipeline that provides a major source of vocations and ministers. As mentioned previously only 37% of Post-Vatican II Generation Catholics and 23% of Millennial Generation Catholics have attended a Catholic primary school at some point. Yet, half or more new priests (50%) and brothers (55%) attended Catholic primary schools as did 41% of new sisters and 45% of younger lay ecclesial ministers.

Without Catholic schools the next generation of Church leaders would be more difficult to recruit and form in the numbers that will be needed for a growing Catholic population (1, 2).

In the broadest view, the long-term benefits of Catholic schools in making Mass attendance more likely and helping ensure young Catholics are confirmed (and remain Catholic as adults), along with the importance these institutions play in fostering Catholic leaders likely outweigh many of the short-term financial difficulties Catholic schools currently face. The Catholic Church would be weakened significantly by continued losses of Catholic schools. At the same time there are many schools that are no longer financially feasible. There are simply too few Catholic families in some areas. These campuses should be closed (...unless they can remain open with non-Catholic students. Schools can educate and evangelize). What is essential is that the Church needs to build many new schools where Catholic families are. Where to start? There are 18 U.S. dioceses where the number of parish-connected Catholics (i.e., registered or attending Mass) per elementary school exceeds 25,000. Most of these are in the South or West.

 

Using demographic planning (i.e., identifying areas with many Catholic families) the Catholic Church could successfully construct new Catholic schools in many of the dioceses listed above. In a national view, these new campuses would replace closing campuses in areas of the Midwest and Northeast and maintain the Church’s capacity to provide education for the shifting U.S. Catholic population. Some of this is already occurring. Since 2005, the Church has established 347 new schools. Also during this period about three in ten schools nationally have had waiting lists (1,986 schools in 2014). But 347 new campuses are insufficient to rebuild the capacity the Church needs in the South and West (...nationally more than 1,500 campuses have closed in the last decade).

It is also the case that much of the growth in Catholic population in the South and West has been among those who self-identify their ethnicity as Hispanic. Only 14% of students in Catholic schools nationally are Hispanic while 45% of Catholics ages 18 to 29 self-identify as Hispanic. Some have wondered about the feasibility of new schools in the South and West if Hispanic parents do not choose to enroll children in sufficient numbers.

The CARA survey of Catholic parents mentioned above also revealed that once one controls for income (and other factors such as age, frequency of Mass attendance, education, and availability of financial assistance), Hispanic parents are no more or less likely to enroll children in Catholic schools than Catholic parents of some other race and/or ethnicity. Thus, the current lack of enrollments by Hispanic Catholic parents does not appear to be an issue of cultural or school preferences. The shortfall is likely mostly economic with the median household income for Hispanic families in the United States only about 64% of what the average non-Hispanic white family earns annually. In 2013, the median Catholic elementary school tuition was $3,673 per year (after adjusting for inflation this is 37% higher than what it was in 2004). Many may be simply priced out of the possibility of enrollment (...and this in turn may be negatively impacting Hispanic Catholic retention and affiliation). So the challenge is even greater than just creating new schools. The church needs new and more affordable schools.

As incredibly difficult as this may be, failing to rebuild a new model of Catholic schooling where it is needed most would likely result in Catholic retention rates falling to levels of many Protestant denominations (e.g., minorities of those raised Methodist, Episcopalian, or Presbyterian remain affiliated as such as adults). The Church would struggle to develop the next generation of leaders. Then again it would need fewer leaders because Mass attendance rates among a diminished Catholic population would result in fewer demands for sacraments and religious practice. If the Church is looking to get smaller in the future it could easily achieve this by continuing to reduce its capacity to provide school-based religious education.

That was a long way of saying, yes, of course Catholic schools matter.

Classroom image courtesy of Saint Francis Academy. 

Note: CARA Catholic Polls are conducted with GfK Custom Research’s nationally representative panel. A random sample of adult Catholics are surveyed from this panel through their computer or through a television-based interface (for those without computer and/or internet access). This reduces social desirability bias that occurs when surveys are conducted with human interviewers. It is well understood that respondents over-report their church attendance in telephone or face-to-face polling. This problem is minimized using the methods CARA employs in its national surveys.