The Future is Now

An article I wrote for Our Sunday Visitor Newsweekly is online now and in print next week. It focuses on statistical projections of Church life 25 years into the future in 2035. One of the themes is how we will likely need to deal with parish and sacramental life that includes many fewer priests (i.e., if current trends continue).

One of the surprises of the research is that few Catholics say they have been personally affected by a shortage of priests yet in CARA Catholic Polls (CCP).  Perhaps it’s all an issue of localized change? You may hear about one or more parishes closing in your diocese but these changes rarely get “aggregated” in a national perspective (... from 2000 to 2009, the number of parishes in the United States declined by 6.2 percent or -1,278 parishes).

I did the simplest research one can do these days and googled “priest shortage” for news results. Here is what I found in the first page of results for news within the last month:

• Taking its toll: "The Diocese of San Bernardino is closing a 50-year-old parish in the desert community of Joshua Tree, citing “the ongoing priest shortage” as the reason."
• Flowood priest growing leaders, fostering creativity: "With a priest shortage worldwide, more emphasis will be placed on church members running the day-to-day operations." 
• Fall River Diocese pulling chaplains from area high schools: "The Diocese of Fall River is removing all full-time chaplains from its high schools in the midst of a priest shortage."
• Parishioners celebrate last Mass at Nicoma Park church: "The Archdiocese of Oklahoma City is closing the church because of a shortage of priests. The church was formed in 1949."
• Monsignor retires from St. Joseph Church: "He's pastor to more than 2000 families at St. Joseph and he has no assistant because of the priest shortage."

Notice the trend in just this small set of recent news results where parishes are being closed and ministries altered not because there are too few Catholics but because of too few priests. Also note that these stories really are scattered all across the country from California to Oklahoma to Massachusetts. In the OSV piece I note that we are all likely in for “steady change” and that parish and sacramental life will be significantly altered for practicing Catholics in the years to come. CARA is currently conducting research for the Emerging Models of Pastoral Leadership project to identify and understand emerging pastoral leadership models that can sustain vibrant Catholic parish life in the United States in this changing environment.

This collaboration of the National Association of Lay Ministry (NALM) with four other national ministerial organizations—the Conference of Pastoral Planning and Council Development (CPPCD), the National Association of Church Personnel Administrators (NACPA), the National Catholic Young Adult Ministry Association (NCYAMA), and the National Federation of Priests’ Councils (NFPC)—is  funded by The Lilly Endowment.  It began in 2003 and is scheduled to conclude in 2012.

Research has and will continue to focus on many parish life issues including multiple parish ministry and parish clustering, recruiting and training the next generation of pastoral leaders, the role of finance and pastoral councils, and Canon 517.2 parishes where pastoral care has been entrusted to deacons or lay persons. The research has already or will eventually include surveys of pastors and those entrusted with the care of a Canon 517.2 parish, parish staff persons and volunteers, other parish leaders, as well as parishioners (in-pew). Bishops have been interviewed as part of the project and statistical trends have been and continue to be scrutinized. Much of this research is available on the Emerging Models website (linked above) now or will be available in the future once all projects are completed.

As I note in the OSV piece, unforeseen changes are always likely and let us hope and pray that the projections are off the mark and that the future only holds good news for the Church. I would not mind being wrong on this one.

What Your Pastor Is Really Worried About: In His Own Words...

The research presented below is based on a content analysis by CARA student researcher Michael Budzinski (Georgetown Class of 2014). 

What is your pastor worried about? CARA recently asked a random sample of pastors in our National Survey of Catholic Parishes (NSCP), "What is the greatest challenge facing your parish in the next five years?" Each pastor could respond in their own words. These were then examined for common themes and content.

First among their worries is finances. Twenty-one percent mentioned a financial issue as their top challenge. This strongly correlates with the 25% of parishes nationally that ran a budget deficit last year as estimated by the NSCP. This is also strongly related to the demographic changes described in our recent "Tale of Two Churches" post with parishes in the Northeast (32%) most likely to run a deficit and those in the South least likely to face this challenge (15%).

Some of the representative "financial issues" comments from Northeastern and Midwestern pastors are shown below.

• Increasing costs of running a parish. Concerns about offertory and fundraising ability.
• We are struggling to survive financially. We are encouraging people to contribute more to the collection and examining the possibility of merging with another parish.
• Planning to get rid of a few old buildings and start new stewardship programs.
• The local economy, no jobs, high school and college graduates are not returning to the area.
• Declining numbers. Loss of young people. Number of aging parishioners. We are looking at how we can tighten budget due to the 'givers' declining in years.
• Fundraising. We will need to go to foundations. Parishioners are generous but limited in resources.
• Old facility needs some major repairs. Pray to find ways to bring in more revenue and save it for the future needs.
• Largest challenge is dealing with rising expenses and fewer parishioners.
• Finances. We are cutting staff.

At the same time, many in the South and West raised a primary challenge related to their property and need for facility improvement or expansion. This was noted by 13% of pastors overall. It is most common among pastors in the West who have the largest numbers of parishioners, on average (about 4,000 including registered and the unregistered who regularly attend Masses). Representative comments include: 

• The building of a new and larger worship space.
•  Parish growth is the problem. We plan to secure more land across the street for parking so we can build a larger church on our current lot.
• Our parish is a growing parish with many young persons. We are building a larger church and are currently in the middle of a capital campaign that has been very successful.
• Need more space. We are in the process of planning for the future. We are doing a pastoral plan that includes the need for more staffing in the parish and a multifunctional building or hall.
• Growth. Good problem! Building accommodations for classes, meetings, etc. Of course with that comes financial needs, building campaigns, etc.
• Increasing growth. More than a thousand houses are scheduled to be constructed in the area around the parish in the next few years. We need an addition to our church, doubling its capacity.
• Not enough space to continue to grow. We are raising funds to be able to buy more land.
• Limited parking and our solution would be to partner with nearby agencies to share parking on Sundays to take of our 'virtual members' of the parish who are worried about driving and not finding parking.
• We are in capital campaign to build a K-8 school, a 2,000 seat church, a 300 seat chapel, and administrative offices.

There are some parishes in the Northeast and Midwest that are also dealing with similar needs but for very different reasons. When a parish closes another nearby parish becomes the new home to more parishioners. In areas where a closure does not occur but parishes instead share a pastor, ministers, and/or ministries (i.e., multi-parish ministry) a larger community is created and served by fewer parish leaders. The NSCP estimates that 19% of parishes have started using multi-parish ministry in the last five years and 6% have been affected by a parish closure during that time. Multi-parish ministry has most often been adopted in the Midwest (33%) and parishes have been affected by closures most often in the Northeast (12%). Seven percent of pastors cited their biggest challenge is merging and/or the creation of "mega-parishes." Representative comments from the Midwest and Northeast include:

• Developing a partnership between three parishes. Overcoming fear that a parish will be closed. Being open to a decision which parish will be the center parish. The challenge of making partnerships. 
• Because of the priest shortage we were forced into clusters but it was up to each cluster to determine how to function. Too often the cluster is looked at as a merge and the small parishes are getting gobbled up by the larger who believe they are entitled to all the best Mass times, staffing, preferences, etc. Also, comfort parishioners who are afraid that we will be closed. Sadly some have said they will simply move next door to the Lutheran Church where they have friends rather than travel 20 miles to the next Catholic church.
• We are clustered with four other parishes. The challenges facing us are the shortage of priests which comes the clustering/linking of parishes or closure.
• The challenge facing our parish in the next five years is the possible merger with two other churches. The office for these churches has merged and the bulletin has merged. We are proceeding with a unified approach, in hopes to unite the people of each church. 
• Currently in the middle of the consolidation of six parishes into two, and eventually one. That is enough of a challenge for anyone; e.g. worship schedule too many buildings, real estate.
• Merging four parishes into a new parish having two worship sites. The parish covers two cities with very different demographics and economies. We engage people in listening sessions striving to provide good liturgies and activities bringing people together.
• Clustered with three other parishes. One of them has been closed. The number of priests is still shrinking in the diocese. There is anxiety about future leadership and configuration as some rearrangement has been happening each year somewhere in the diocese. Mostly we are in denial.

Many other challenges do not have the regional divides evident in the responses noted above. Following financial issues are three semi-related concerns common throughout the country: evangelization, parishioner apathy, and engaging young people. Representative comments include:

• People who are no longer practicing their faith regularly. We have established an Evangelization Team to work on the helping all to grow in their relationship to Christ and to invite back those who no longer actively worship with us.
• We are evaluating many initiatives to reach out to the "unchurched" and fallen away Catholics.
• Awakening the faith of the parishioners and those who do not join us on a regular basis. Continue to evangelize and spread the word. Growing Mass attendance and expand our volunteer base.
• Evangelizing parents. Many of our 30 to 45-year-olds don't know their faith.
• Retaining and attracting participants (especially on the younger end of the age spectrum).
• Reaching out to the 70% of registered parishioners who are not attending Mass regularly.
• No one is locked in to church. While we can count on some Catholics to be faithful no matter what, a growing portion of parishioners is fickle and choosy. Every weekend is an audition.
• Keeping young adults close to the church.
• Encourage young families to come to church and bring their children. Sports programs have become the churches for this group.

Other issues of concern across the country include a lack of priests and a lack of staff or resources. Representative comments include:

• Priest shortage. Pastor with multiple parishes.
• I expect that this parish will be closed when the diocese finalizes a plan to deal with declining priest population.
• Declining number of priests and deacons, especially those who can serve Hispanics and minorities.
• Priest shortage may cause combining of parishes.
• There is no longer a resident pastor and a handful of devoted parishioners are keeping the Catholic identity alive.
• Staff is part time and turns back half their salary in order to keep the place operational.
• Recruiting and training competent, capable parish volunteers.
• Not having a resident pastor or sharing one and having fewer liturgies.
• The need for someone other than the pastor to provide for adult formation and catechist training and liturgical music. We need professionally trained and salaried Adult Formation Director and Liturgical Musician.

A variety of other challenges were noted by pastors as shown in the graph above. Some were rather unique and were unnamed by others (i.e. "other" comments). A sampling of all these other challenges includes:

• In the process of a complete merger. The primary challenge will be retaining the cultural/ethnic identities and the historical traditions moving forward, as well as redefining what it means for us to be parish.
• Bringing three diverse communities together in one parish: Anglo, Hispanic, and Vietnamese. They have evolved into three distinct communities which share very little in common.
• Aging congregation. Nothing I can do about it. Young people must leave for employment.
• Keep the school open. Our families are old. We have to find kids outside the parish.
• Our parish is changing due to an influx of immigrants. The older parishioners are not ready for the change because they see what is familiar changing fast. I basically have two parishes. One Anglo and the other Hispanic. Very difficult to merge the two. We have opportunities for the two communities to come together, but we don't have good participation.
• Demographics indicate that after high school, young people get as far away from this area as possible. It an old steel town that has not retooled itself and so they are few jobs and basically nothing to do around here.
• The consumer culture is a huge challenge to us. Young adults are too busy for church at this point in their lives. They look for more exciting places. Many of our families are 'transit' Catholics who go where it is convenient either because Mass is quicker or times are more convenient. They aren't engaged or attached to a parish until they want something.
• Maintaining Catholic identity in culture that rejects and openly mocks religion. The secular influence by schools and sport teams and other social events have made the Church far less than third class.
• Parishioners do not know each other.
• Dealing with people polarized on different church and political issues.
• We need to find and encourage people who have a preference for the 1962 Mass to come and join us.
• Keeping up with the integration of technology in the life of the parish.

The NSCP included a series of questions, commissioned by St. John’s School of Theology Seminary, about the recently revised English-language Roman Missal. Results from the responses to these questions have gained some media attention. It is important to note that none of the NSCP respondents mentioned the revised Missal as a major challenge facing their parish in the responses to the open-ended question analyzed above. Thus, even though about half of priests say they don't like the revisions, few apparently see this as their most pressing problem. This could be because, as other CARA research has shown, an overwhelming majority of those in the pews agree that the revisions were good.

Look for more results from the NSCP to be released by CARA soon. Also be sure to visit the Emerging Models of Pastoral Leadership research archive where you will find an enormous amount of related research on parish life in the United States.


About the National Survey of Catholic Parishes (NSCP)
The research was made possible through funding provided by SC Ministry Foundation and St. Matthew's Catholic Church in Charlotte, NC. In October 2013, CARA began sending invitations to 6,000 randomly selected parishes (5,000 by email and 1,000 mail) to take part in the National Survey of Catholic Parishes (NSCP). Stratification was used. The total number of parishes randomly selected in each diocese was determined by weighting the diocesan averages of the percentage of the Catholic population and the percentage of Catholic parishes in the United States in each diocese as reported in The Official Catholic Directory (OCD). This stratification ensures that parishes representing the full Catholic population were included rather than a sample more dominated by areas where there are many small parishes with comparatively small Catholic populations. A total of 486 email addresses were not valid and 68 of the mailed invitations were returned as bad addresses or as being closed parishes. Thus, the survey likely reached 5,446 parishes. The survey remained in the field as periodic reminders by email and mail were made until February 2014. Reminders were halted during Advent and the survey closed before Lent in 2014. A total of 539 responses to the survey were returned to CARA for a response rate of 10%. This number of responses results in a margin of sampling error of ±4.2 percentage points at the 95% confidence interval. Respondents include those returning a survey by mail or answering online. The survey consisted of 169 questions and spanned eight printed pages. A slightly smaller national CARA parish survey, including 141 questions from 2010, obtained a 15% response rate. Response rates for CARA parish surveys are correlated with the length of the questionnaire. Responding parishes match closely to the known distribution of parishes by region. Data for sacraments celebrated also match the OCD closely.

Parish image courtesy of Ryan Basilio. The addition of the thought bubble wordle is based on all of the responses to the challenge question.

Surplus and Shortage: Mapping Priests and Parishes

Every parish needs a priest. At least one. On Sunday for sure...

Yet, nearly one in five U.S. parishes do not have a resident priest pastor. Seven in ten have a diocesan priest serving in this capacity and religious priests serve as resident pastors in 11% of parishes. In 17% of parishes a priest is serving as a non-resident pastor (in a small number a "team of priests" administrates). In about 430 parishes (or 2.5% of all parishes), due to a shortage of priests, a deacon or lay person is entrusted with the pastoral care of a parish by their bishop (Canon 517.2). Yet even here, the parish life coordinator, as this person is often titled, must still do their best to arrange for priests to be available for Masses and other sacraments.

Priests cannot be in two places at once and there are only so many hours in a Sunday. We have a good understanding of how many parishes there are in the United States and how many priests are available. The map below (click for full size) shows the number of parishes subtracted from the number of active diocesan priests in each diocese. From time to time priests from outside the diocese may come and serve (i.e., externs) to fill needs. It is also the case, as noted above, that many religious priests serve in parishes as well (although their numbers are in decline). But the core of parish life has been diocesan priests serving in their diocese. In 60% of dioceses, those marked in yellow and red, there is no surplus of diocesan priests active in ministry relative to the number of parishes in the diocese.

The green areas on the map have more active diocesan priests than parishes. These include a number of urban areas. But even here the math gets tricky. An urban priest who is a pastor of one parish may be responsible for serving the needs of 5,000 registered households, while a rural priest in one of the red areas of the map may serve as pastor in three parishes in one county with 200 registered households in each parish. That rural pastor may be able to serve the needs of these communities by himself, whereas the urban pastor may need a parochial vicar and a retired priest to assist him and still struggle to meet the needs of his community. Green and red are not always as "clear" as it might seem in practice.

Yet the math does say something important. A "traditional" model of parish where one can find a priest at any time of day or night is not possible in many areas of the United States (to some degree in rural areas and the South this has always been the case and certainly has long been a reality in many other areas of the world). How will parish life change in the future if the U.S. Catholic population continues to grow while the number of priests in the country continues to decline? This would likely create more pressure to close and consolidate parishes at the very time that population growth would indicate a need for new construction.

CARA research indicates the average parish has more than 3,200 registered parishioners along with some unknown (and likely growing) number of unregistered households (...in a recent national CARA survey 55% of adult Catholics said they were in a registered household. This percentage has been falling in the last decade. Only eight in ten of those surveyed in pew during Mass say they are registered). About 1,100 of these parishioners attend a Mass in a typical week. The average seating capacity of Catholic churches is about 540 per Mass. The average parish has about four Saturday/Sunday Vigil Masses per week.

In an era of fewer priests, one could reduce the number of Masses, outside of holidays, down to the "demand" capacity (i.e., enough open seats for Mass attenders). One could also reduce and consolidate parishes to the degree possible (...what is the maximum distance people would be willing and able to travel?). The Church can (...and has in the past) invited priests from overseas to serve here to balance the equation as well. In 1999, international priests made up 8% of all priests in the United States. Today, they are 16% of all priests in the country.

It is also the case that what the United States is experiencing right now is not an entirely new reality—just one many have forgotten in the pages of history. As shown in the figure below, the ratio of diocesan priests active in their diocese to parishes in the United States of 1950 was very similar to what it was in 2012.

There was about one active diocesan priest per parish then as there is now. The late 1950s into the 1970s represent an exceptional period in American history when there were significantly more active diocesan priests available than there were parishes. Age and mortality has and continues to diminish the size of the diocesan clergy population. Although ordinations have remained stable for decades, these are not sufficient to make up for the number of priests lost each year to retirement or death.

Although 2012 may not have felt all that different from 2011, it did represent a new era of parish life in the United States: parishes are beginning to outnumber a key population of priests. Coinciding with recent efforts in New Evangelization and welcoming new or returning parishioners to communities, it seems unimaginable to simultaneously be reducing the number of parishes and/or Masses. Instead, it may be time to more boldly let the country know that the Church is "now hiring."

And there may be more help on the way. Recent CARA research has shown that young men attending a World Youth Day are 4.5 times more likely than those who have not attended to consider becoming a priest or religious brother and one fifth of newly ordained U.S. priests in 2013 say they attended a World Youth Day. With more than 3 million in attendance, the final Mass of World Youth Day in Rio this year is one of the largest gatherings in human history. Somewhere on that beach may be your future pastor...

Image above courtesy of galeriaes.gaudiumpress at Flickr Creative Commons.

Millions of Never-Married Catholics Have Considered Vocations

We've focused on Catholics' consideration of vocations before. But we've never had a whole survey devoted to the topic... until now. In winter 2012, the Secretariat of Clergy, Consecrated Life and Vocations of the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops commissioned CARA to conduct a national poll of never-married Catholics ages 14 and older regarding their consideration of a vocation. CARA partnered with GfK Custom Research (formerly Knowledge Networks) to conduct the survey in May and June 2012. The survey was completed by 1,428 respondents (resulting in a margin of sampling error of ±2.6 percentage points).

The study, available online now, has many surprises. Although many speak of priest shortages and steep declines in the number of men and women religious, the survey reveals that there is no shortage of individuals who seriously consider these vocations among never-married Catholics in the United States. Three percent of men say they have "very seriously" considered becoming a priest or religious brother and 2 percent of women indicate they have "very seriously" considered becoming a religious sister. This is equivalent to 352,800 never-married men and 254,800 never-married women. Millions of never-married Catholics are estimated to have considered these vocations at least "a little seriously" based on the survey results.

This study identifies subgroups in the never-married Catholic population—including teens and adults—and compares those who have considered a vocation at least "a little seriously" to those who say they have not considered this or who say they did so, but not seriously. Overall, 12 percent of male respondents say they considered becoming a priest or brother at least a little seriously. Ten percent of female respondents say they considered becoming a religious sister at least a little seriously. The subgroups that are especially likely to have considered a vocation include:

• Weekly Mass attenders (now and in high school)
• Those who attended Catholic educational institutions at any level (excluding parish-based religious education)
• Those who participated in Church-related groups, programs, or activities as a youth or young adult
• Those who lived in households where parents talked to them about religion at least once a week
• Those who say their faith is the most important part of their life (now and in high school)
• Those who participate in prayer and devotional activities, groups, or programs (e.g., Bible study, Eucharistic adoration, retreats, or prayer groups)
• Those who pray the rosary at least weekly (alone or in a group)
• Those belonging to a group that encourages devotion to Mary
• Those who were encouraged to consider a vocation by someone else (e.g., family, friends, clergy, religious)
• Those who regularly read the Bible or pray with Scripture
• Those who personally know priests and men and women religious (in their extended family or outside of it)
• Those who have participated in parish ministry (e.g., Lectors, Ministers of Holy Communion, Youth Ministers)
• Those who have participated in World Youth Day or a National Catholic Youth Conference
• Those who have recently accessed religious and spiritual content in traditional or new media

The study utilizes a form of regression analysis to sort through these different influences (and more) to isolate those that are most important and influential. 

Consideration of Becoming a Priest or Religious Brother among Men
Among male respondents, after controlling for all other factors, those who attended a Catholic secondary school (grades 9-12) are more likely to have considered becoming a priest or religious brother. Compared to those who did not attend a Catholic secondary school, these respondents are more than six times as likely to have considered a vocation. Participation in a parish youth group during primary school years (grades K-8) is also strongly related to vocational consideration. These respondents are more than five times as likely to consider a becoming a priest or religious brother than those who did not participate in a parish youth group. Given that 75 percent of male respondents who have considered a vocation report that they first did so when they were 18 or younger, these two results provide some of the strongest evidence of a possible causal effect.

Encouragement from others is also important. Respondents who have one person encouraging them are nearly twice as likely to consider a vocation as those who are not encouraged. Each additional person encouraging these respondents increases the likelihood of consideration. The effect is additive. Respondents who had three persons encourage them would be expected to be more than five times more likely to consider a vocation than someone who was not encouraged by anyone.

Knowing someone who has become a priest, religious sister or brother, or seminarian also has a positive effect. Respondents who personally know one of these individuals are more than one and a half times more likely than someone who does not to consider a vocation themselves. This effect is also additive and knowing more of these individuals would be expected to increase the likelihood of a respondent considering a vocation.

Attendance at World Youth Day or at a National Catholic Youth Conference has a positive effect for male consideration of a vocation. Those who attended either of these events are more than four times as likely as those who have not to say they have considered becoming a priest or brother.

Finally, those who have recently used traditional media (television, radio, print) to access content about religion or spirituality in the 12 months prior to the survey are more likely than those who did not to say they have considered a vocation. Note however, that this media use in most cases occurred well after their initial consideration. Thus, what this more likely demonstrates is that people who have considered a vocation are more likely than those who have not to use traditional media to currently follow religion and spirituality content. Those who have used one type of traditional media in the last year are nearly twice as likely to say they have considered a vocation than those who have not used these media recently. The effect is additive, so use of two or three traditional media to access religious or spiritual content is associated with an even greater likelihood of vocational consideration. This finding is potentially useful in understanding how male never-married Catholics who have considered becoming a priest or religious brother can be reached now.

Note that neither generation nor race and ethnicity are statistically significant in the full model. Thus, there is nothing about a person’s age or race and ethnicity that are associated with lower or higher likelihoods of consideration, controlling for all other factors. Any disproportionality in the race and ethnicity of men who decide to become priests or religious brothers are in part likely to be related to being less likely to attend Catholic schools or to be involved in youth groups, comparatively lower levels of encouragement, or not personally knowing clergy or religious. This could also be related to factors that are important after consideration of a vocation is made by individuals, such as meeting requirements for entry into a formation program.

Consideration of Becoming a Religious Sister among Women
Among female respondents, the model predicting consideration of becoming a religious sister includes many parallel results to the model for male respondents. 

Whereas secondary school is important for male vocational consideration, it is attendance at a Catholic primary school which is important for female vocational consideration. Female respondents who attended a Catholic primary school are more than three times as likely as those who did not to consider becoming a religious sister. Parish youth group participation is also important for female respondents. However, unlike males, it is participation during high school years rather than primary school years that has an effect. Women who participated in a parish youth group during these teen years are more than nine times as likely to consider becoming a religious sister.

Similar to male respondents, encouragement is also a positive factor. With nearly the same effect as is demonstrated among men, women are nearly twice as likely to consider a vocation when encouraged by another person to do so.

Also parallel to men, women who have used traditional media in the last year to consume or follow religious or spiritual content are more likely than those who do not to say they have considered a vocation.

Among the adults surveyed (excluding those ages 14 to 17 in the sample) who say they have considered a vocation, most report that they did so between the ages of 13 and 24. Additionally, one in four Catholic females who have considered becoming a religious sister did so before they were a teenager. 

Although most Catholics who are becoming priests, religious brothers, or religious sisters now are typically in their 30s or even older, it is likely that the roots of these vocations were established in their teen years or even earlier.

In Their Own Words
Respondents who said they had never considered a vocation were asked in an open ended question, “Why do you think you have never considered this?” Their responses to this question were coded into categories based on their content.

Among male respondents who have never considered a vocation as a priest or religious brother, the most common responses to the question were related to a general lack of interest (39 percent), celibacy (18 percent), not having a calling to seek a vocation (8 percent), having other life goals (8 percent), and having some doubts about their faith or not feeling religious enough to seek a vocation (8 percent). One percent of comments referenced the issue of sexual abuse of minors by clergy.

Among female respondents who have never considered a vocation as a religious sister, the most common responses were related to a general lack of interest (31 percent), celibacy (16 percent), not having a calling to seek a vocation (11 percent), discomfort with the lifestyle they would need to adopt (10 percent), and having some doubts about their faith or not feeling religious enough to seek a vocation (9 percent).

What Was Behind the 1960s Vocation Boom? Not Your Mom or Dad Apparently...

In 1966 there were nearly 60,000 priests in ministry in the United States and only about 17,900 parishes. Few were concerned with the notion of a "priest shortage." There were also more than 176,000 religious sisters and 12,500 religious brothers. This was the ultimate time of plenty for the Church in America. Catholic parents must have been a big part of that.

I didn't talk to your mom about this but sociologist Father Joseph H. Fichter, S.J. may have. Especially if you grew up in Illinois. Deep in the CARA archives sits an historical gem of social science, "Catholic Parents and the Church Vocation" published in 1967 using data from 1964 Fichter survey (CARA is in the process of digitizing its public print archives for future online distribution...stay tuned on that).

As Louis Luzbetak, S.V.D., CARA's Executive Director at the time notes, "There is no diocese in the United States that has at hand such a wealth of information about the image of its priests and religious, and about the corresponding parental attitudes toward Church vocations...as does the Diocese of Peoria, Illinois." Corporations frequently test products in Columbus, Ohio because it is supposed to be representative of the country as a whole. Think of Peoria being a similar type of locale for Catholicism in the 1960s ("Will it play Peoria?," middle America, sitting squarely between Chicago and St. Louis). Fichter and a group of academics and practitioners developed the survey and tested it first as a pilot survey of 1,287 Catholic parents in New Orleans in 1963. Then after revisions in 1964, fielded the survey in Peoria to 8,689 Catholic parents through their parishes. In half of the surveys the father was asked to complete the form and in the other half the mother.

These parents were asked if they had ever considered a vocation (i.e., men as priests or brothers and women as religious sisters). Six in ten indicated they had never considered this. Only 6% of the Catholic parents surveyed said they had considered a vocation seriously and 1% indicated they had entered the seminary or convent and had left. Among fathers more specifically, 5% had considered becoming a priest seriously and 2% had entered seminary and left. Seven percent of mothers had considered becoming a religious sister and 1% had entered a convent but left. By comparison, 3% of adult Catholic men today say they "very" seriously considered becoming a priest or brother and less than 1% of adult Catholic women say they "very" seriously becoming a religious sister (note that serious interest in vocations is a bit higher among never-married Catholic adults and teens and this still translates into a large number in absolute terms).

Parents were then asked if they thought they should promote vocations to their children. Surprisingly, many did not feel they should. I think this stands in stark contrast to our "memories" of this period. Only 17% said they thought they should encourage vocations. Additionally, 25% said they should just "initiate a discussion" of vocations. Parents were most likely to say their child should "bring it up first" (31%). Four percent said they should pray for their child to be interested in a vocation but mention nothing to them about this and 23% said it should be left "completely in the hands of God." I would not be surprised to see survey results like this in 2013 but it sounds a bit off coming from the parents of 1964 (...especially when we know now that encouragement is so important in fostering vocations).

Regardless of encouragement from a parent, what if a 13-year-old Catholic had interest in a vocation in 1964? What would a mom or dad think is the right course to follow? A majority of parents surveyed wanted their son or daughter to finish high school first. About one in seven thought their child should go off to study for their vocation right away at 13 and 13% wanted them to have at least a few years of high school before doing this. Thus, more than eight in ten Catholic parents in 1964 thought the path to a vocation begins as a teenager (note that even today most Catholics say they first consider a vocation as a teen).

Ironically, parents had quite different attitudes about dating. As shown in the figure below, 86% of parents surveyed thought their sons should not "go steady" with someone until he was 18 or older and 73% of parents said the same about their daughters. Thus, a significant portion of parents thought that consideration of a vocation and perhaps pursuit of this should and would begin before their son or daughter ever had a steady girlfriend or boyfriend.

Parents were most likely to say that their sons might not consider a vocation because he would be attracted to other occupations (27%). They thought their daughters might not do so because of they would be attracted to the opposite sex (33%).

If their child was interested in a vocation, most parents had no preference for a specific area of Church ministry that they enter. If they did indicate a preference, parents more often than not preferred their sons to become diocesan priests (27%) and their daughters to enter an "active teaching order" (24%).

If their daughter entered an order, many did not expect her to have much contact with them. One of the more interesting details of the study is in its testing. When the pilot was fielded in New Orleans, parents were asked if they would favor religious sisters being allowed to eat at the Blue Room, play golf on public links, attend Sugar Bowl games, and direct girl scouts. This series of questions was modified (beyond regional relevance) because the researchers found that "these suggestions were apparently too 'far out'" for the respondents to consider. The figure below shows the final question wording and results for this series in Peoria.

While most in 1964, thought that it was just fine for sisters to read newspapers, watch television, have a yearly vacation back at home, attend cultural events in the evening, and accept dinner invitations, there were more mixed opinions about them being able to eat in public restaurants, wear up-to-date clothing, or join civic organizations. 

While the results for what sisters should be "allowed" to do or for the age when young Catholics should be allowed to "go steady" may seem odd 50 years on, what is even more remarkable to me is how the parents of 1964 were not all that different to those of 2013 in terms of what they see as their responsibility to be in encouraging their children for a vocation. In fact it creates a bit of a mystery. In the heart of the biggest vocations boom this country has ever known, parental encouragement and their own personal consideration of a vocation is not far off from what it is among parents today. I guess there is some "good news" in that. There are some other X-factors out there that were responsible for that boom which could surface again some day.

Changes in Number of Parishes... and Congressional Seats?

At CARA we are often called by reporters working on stories about parish closures. Almost always the reporter is looking for a quote or statistic that can confirm their assumption that the closure of a parish is a new sign of an imploding Catholic Church (it's a common narrative!).

We typically have to caution the reporter on jumping to conclusions based on a single anecdote and then ask a few questions ourselves. Is this parish in an urban area? Is it located in the Northeast or Midwest? Is there a priest shortage in the diocese? All these factors are more likely to be the root of the closure rather than the generalized impending doom in many reporters' heads. I've commented on why this narrative is so misleading elsewhere.

Here is a new correlation to ponder. Today the U.S. Census Bureau released results that will affect the apportionment of the U.S. House of Representatives. The big winners? The South and West and especially Texas (picking up 4 seats). The losers? The Northeast and Midwest which have both become smaller population regions.

Here is a nice summary and map of these changes from the Boston Globe. 

Compare the map linked above to the one below that represents changes at the state-level in the number of Catholic parishes from CARA researcher Mary Gautier:

Why is there such a strong resemblance? Do parish closures cause losses of House seats? Of course not. That would confuse correlation with causation. However, both have common roots: population shifts and changes. The biggest gainer in both parishes and House seats? Texas. On the other hand the greatest losses are seen in New York.

CARA Turned 60

As 2024 comes to an end, we can announce that CARA celebrated its 60^th birthday. Looking back this year went well beyond the last 365 days…

In the 1950s and 1960s there were calls from within the Catholic Church for a national social science research center so the Church could better understand and navigate a rapidly changing society. That center was created on August 5, 1964. The Center for Applied Research in the Apostolate’s honorary first president Richard Cardinal Cushing provided a $50,000 start-up grant (the equivalent of more than $500,000 today). Founding board members included Archbishop John Cody and Archbishop Fulton Sheen. 

For more about this period of CARA's history see Francis X. Gannon's article in Review of Religious Research at JSTOR (subscription required) called Bridging the Research Gap: CARA, response to Vatican II. 

Upon announcing CARA’s creation, Archbishop Cody said, “Up to the present, there has been in this country no mechanism capable of aiding an integrated apostolic effort supported by careful study, evaluation and scientific research. CARA will represent a serious attempt to fill this need in a thoroughly professional and scientific manner.”

Since this time, CARA has had three major dimensions to its mission:

• to increase the Church’s self-understanding
• to serve the applied research needs of Church decision-makers and to,
• to advance scholarly research on religion, particularly Catholicism.

CARA has never been a “think tank” and has instead focused on being a high-quality research source who provides data for decision makers without commentary or editorial. In our 60 years we have produced more than 2,400 research studies for Catholic organizations large and small.

Initially, CARA was located near the Catholic University of America. Over time we have moved west across Washington DC to its current home near Georgetown University. 

During its earliest years in the 1960s and into the 1970s, the center focused on broad questions facing the Church and employed a team of more than 30 researchers from 20 different religious institutes. For a time in the 1970s, in addition to research, CARA operated a conference center with facilities for sleeping and dining in a building owned by the center near the Catholic University of America. During this period CARA’s research was focused on questions about leadership, diocesan and parish management and administration, Catholic education and healthcare, as well as vocations and formation for priesthood and religious life.

In the 1980s, CARA’s reach took on an international focus for a time. The center also saw CARA organizations and offices start-up in Los Angeles, Canada, and Rome. During this period, CARA was also tasked with managing the first wave of the World Values Survey in the Americas (including polls in Argentina, Canada, Mexico, and the United States). Today, this is one of the longest running global studies of cultural values. 

From the mid-1980s and into the 1990s, CARA had sold its business property and began to downsize its staff and seek a new operating model by affiliating with Georgetown University. This provided improved financial stability. During this period, CARA was primarily doing contract projects for dioceses and religious congregations, and strengthened its commitment to two operating principles: developing a reputation for high-quality on-time research services and ensuring all costs of staff and facilities were covered by revenues from research projects.

For more about this period of CARA's history, when it celebrated its 20th year, see Dolores Liptak's article in U.S. Catholic Historian at JSTOR (subscription required) called The Center for Applied Research in the Apostolate (CARA): 1964-1984. 

In the 1990s, CARA also regularly issued the CARA Seminary Directory and the CARA Formation Directory of Men and Women Religious, among other publications. With the assistance of a grant from the Lilly Endowment, 1987 began the biennial publication of the CARA Catholic Ministry Formation Directory, with sections on all U.S. priesthood, diaconate, and lay ecclesial ministry programs. This study now reports statistics annually with directories published every other year. Given the growing shortage of priests, CARA also at this time developed its Priest Projection Program, which since that time has completed clergy forecasts for numerous dioceses. In 1989, CARA moved to offices near many other Georgetown University entities. 

In the late 1990s and into the 2000s, CARA introduced several new research initiatives that have stood the test of time to the benefit of CARA’s institutional reputation and financial stability. Among these was its individually-tailored parish in-pew survey program, which was initially funded by a grant from Our Sunday Visitor Institute and has now been used by more than one thousand parishes nationwide.

In 2000, CARA began producing the map of U.S. CatholicDioceses published annually in The Official Catholic Directory. That same year, CARA introduced its CARA Catholic Poll, a national public opinion poll of Catholic adults.

Another major event was the introduction of The CARA Report, a quarterly research newsletter now beginning its 30th year, whose subscribers include offices of the USCCB, many Catholic dioceses, parishes, educational institutions, organizations, institutes of men and religious, and individual subscribers. Its wide distribution, with summaries of recent CARA research, continues to result in frequent mentions of CARA’s survey results and other projects in both religious and secular news media.

During this period, CARA continued to provide specially designed research services for its national clientele, principally dioceses, religious institutes, and major Catholic organizations such as Catholic Charities USA and the National Catholic Educational Association.

The continuing high quality of its research projects solidified relationships within the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops, resulting in annual reports on each year’s priestly ordination class, both new entrants and permanent professions in institutes of women and men religious, the state of the permanent diaconate, and incidents of clergy sexual abuse of minors. The overall result of these annual data collection efforts is that CARA has, in effect, become the official definitive source for a variety of vocation-related and other Church statistics.

Related to the above, in this internet era, CARA embraced the concept of having both on-site and off-site research staff who work cooperatively together as needed to complete research projects. CARA now has four on-site researchers, including two vowed religious, all with doctoral degrees. Off-site staff include laity, priests, and vowed religious, all with advanced academic degrees.

This wealth of scholarly talent has had two particularly beneficial results: One is the active participation of CARA scholars in the annual joint conferences of the Society for the Scientific Study of Religion and the Religious Research Association, at which they present scholarly papers and presentations on their latest research projects. The other is a succession of CARA-produced books and articles published by the secular and religious press.

Now in the 2020s, CARA has continued to conduct client-based research for many Catholic dioceses and religious institutes and a wide variety of national Catholic organizations, as well as the previously described series of annual reports and specialized studies for the USCCB. Another recent development has been the strengthening of research relationships with other academic institutions such as The Catholic University of America and the McGrath Institute for Church Life at the University of Notre Dame.

In recent years, CARA has begun to return to something for which it was formed six decades ago—service to an international missionary Church. As has been the practice throughout its history, CARA adjusted to new realities by focusing on the present-day needs of the Church—in this country and across the world.

In 2016, in cooperation with the African Sisters Education Collaborative (ASEC), and the support of the Conrad N. Hilton Foundation, CARA introduced the CARA Visiting Scholars Program, by which women religious from Africa, South Asia, and Latin America come to CARA for a six-month period to develop their skills in applied research. Over this period, each sister works on CARA projects and develops her own research agenda. On return to her home country, each sister completes several applied research projects that serve the needs of religious in her nation. 

In collaboration with the Catholic nonprofit Save Our Aging Religious (SOAR!), and the cooperation of the leadership conferences of both women and men religious, CARA also recently undertook a series of studies and presentations investigating solutions to the problem of inadequate funding and care for the large number of elderly religious sisters in the United States. With support from the Conrad N. Hilton Foundation, CARA then conveyed important lessons learned about planning for the care of elderly and infirm sisters to religious communities in other countries, first in Africa and more recently in Asia and Latin America.

CARA now looks forward to the future with our original mission still in mind, informed by decades of research, data, and experience to draw on.

We paused to celebrate these 60 years in November 2024. The event was at the Apostolic Nunciature of the Holy See in Washington, DC. Here we honored Diocese of Tucson Bishop Emeritus Gerald Kicanas, who served as CARA’s board chair from 2006 to 2015, with the Cardinal Cushing Medal for Advancement in Church Research. Three organizations were presented with the Rev. Louis J. Luzbetak, SVD Award for Exemplary Church Research: CERRA-Africa, Desarrollo y Salud Integral de las Religiosas en México, and the Centre for Research on Religious Life India.

Some photos from that event are below. 

CARA Executive Directors: Current, Fr. Thomas Gaunt, SJ, and past, Sr. Mary Bendyna, OP and Fr. Stephen Fichter.

Sister Jane Wakahiu, LSOSF, Ph.D. Associate Vice President, Program Operations and Head of Catholic Sisters at the Conrad N. Hilton Foundation. 

Diocese of Tucson Bishop Emeritus Gerald Kicanas, CARA's Board Chair 2006-2015.