Nineteen Sixty-four is a research blog for the Center for Applied Research in the Apostolate (CARA) at Georgetown University edited by Mark M. Gray. CARA is a non-profit research center that conducts social scientific studies about the Catholic Church. Founded in 1964, CARA has three major dimensions to its mission: to increase the Catholic Church's self understanding; to serve the applied research needs of Church decision-makers; and to advance scholarly research on religion, particularly Catholicism. Follow CARA on Twitter at: caracatholic.

11.07.2024

Election Returns 2024

All of the presidential election results are yet to come in and Media Exit Polls may still be re weighted/calibrated to best represent the electorate. With that said, the direction of the Catholic vote in 2024 seems clear. It may also be a good prediction that no candidates will skip an invite to the Al Smith dinner in the future (Mondale in 1984 and Harris in 2024 chose not to attend). Silly notions of curses aside, it can't hurt.

Currently (as of 11/7/2024), the Media Exit Polls estimate that 58% of Catholic voters cast a ballot for Trump and 40% for Harris (2% voted for some other candidate). Historically, this would place the 2024 election alongside 1976, 1984, 1996, and 2008, when the Catholic vote was decidedly less evenly divided than in other years (Click here for the data table).

The 2024 election once again shows that the Catholic vote does not "look like America." Most Americans vote consistently for one party or the other given their religion. Catholics on the other hand are the one group that sways back and forth between the two party's candidates. It is arguable the most important religious swing vote (despite the media and pollsters' fascinations with Evangelicals).

Look for additional election analysis in the coming weeks. Also, click either graphic above to enlarge the view.

9.30.2024

The Vote of Catholics? Pre-Election 2024

It is nearly a month until the 2024 election and if there is one constant in American politics for many years it has been that the Catholic vote is expected to be relatively evenly divided.

As shown below [Click tables to enlarge], adult Catholics in the U.S. have more often tended to identify as Democrats than Republicans in the last 48 years. Partisanship can be read two ways—one way including independents who “lean” towards one major party over the other or another way without these leaners who are considered independents. Either way, in 2022, the General Social Survey (GSS) indicated an edge in Democratic partisanship over Republican among adult Catholics (without respect to registration or intention to vote).


CARA surveyed U.S. adult Catholics in December 2023 as the 2024 campaign was just beginning.  At that time, 49% self-identified as Democrats (including independent leaners toward Democrats) and 39% self-identified as Republicans (including independent leaners toward Republicans). Excluding independent leaners, adult Catholics were 42% Democrat and 31% Republican.

While more often Democrat than Republican, Catholics have been more likely to identify their political ideology as conservative rather than liberal since 1980. In 2022, 34% of adult Catholics were conservative and 42% were moderate. Twenty-four percent consider themselves to be liberal.
 
I have often described the average American Catholic voter as a center-right Democrat. This leads Catholics to sometimes be conflicted. Indeed, Catholics are the only major religious group in the U.S. that has voted as a plurality or a majority for Democrats and Republicans for the presidency in elections in the last 50 years.


It is important to consider that just as there is no national vote for the presidency there is also little meaning to the aggregate vote of U.S. Catholics. As always, it is the popular votes in the states that are key as they determine Electoral College outcomes. As I have noted elsewhere regarding the 2016 election, “Catholics in some key electoral states, voted for Trump by large margins, which resulted in narrow state-level wins among the broader electorates there, propelling him to the White House” (Catholics and the 2016 Elections in Catholics and US Politics After the 2016 Elections, 2018). This was most important in Michigan and Florida in that election year.  

Based on current polling of the whole electorate (i.e., not just Catholics), if the election were held today, September 30, this is what the Electoral College map would probably look like (i.e., if recent aggregated state polls reflected votes).

The CARA survey of Catholics from December 2023 indicated that then Democrat candidate President Joe Biden had a 41.8% favorable rating compared to 38.4% for former President Donald Trump. Some 47.3% had an unfavorable rating of Biden as did 52.2% of Trump. At the time of polling, adult Catholics felt that the most important problems facing the country were the high cost of living/inflation, the economy in general, guns/gun control, and immigration. These issues remain among the most important to voters today.


For decades we always had some insight on how Catholics might vote from the primary exit polls. However, in recent elections those responsible for these surveys have not asked questions allowing one to understand the opinions of any religious group (Sociologically speaking, “Evangelical” is not a religious group). It is also the case that with President Biden dropping out after the primaries and Vice President Harris then assuming the nomination we would not have exit polls that address both of the major party candidates.

However, the Pew Research Center has conducted a survey evaluating religious group preferences in late August/early September. The results of this survey indicated that 52% of Catholics intended, at that time, to vote for former President Trump and 47% for Vice President Harris. The margin of error for Catholics in the survey was ±3.2 percentage points. Thus, the difference between candidates among Catholics was not discernible in this survey.

In 2020, the American National Election Survey (ANES) indicated 20% of voting eligible adults in the United States self-identified as Catholic. If this share remains consistent in 2024, we can assume there are nearly 50 million Catholics who are eligible to vote in the upcoming election. Approximately 70% of the eligible would be expected to vote if patterns similar to 2020 reoccur.

8.12.2024

Will You Marry? Will It Be In Church? Will Your Spouse Be Catholic? Will It End in Divorce?

 

In this post we review some important marriage trends using CARA's Church Statistics database. While you may have heard that marriage is endangered and rare, most Catholics will end up being married during their life. In the 1970s, 79% of adult Catholics married at some point in their life compared to 73% so far in the 2020s (72% in 2022).

What has changed more is that the share of adult Catholics who are currently married has declined. In the 1970s, an average of 67% of Catholics who were asked their marital status said they were married compared to an average of 53% so far in the 2020s (52% in 2022).

The average share of adult Catholics who had ever divorced jumped from 10% of adult Catholics in the 1970s to 22% in the 2020s (some of these Catholics go on to have a different “current” marital status when polled due to remarriage). Additionally, 12% of adult Catholics, on average, said they were currently separated in the 2020s compared to an average of 4% in the 1970s.

With 72% of adult Catholics having been married in 2022 and 20% having ever experienced divorce in the same year, we can say about 28% of those Catholics who marry experience divorce at some point.

One trend with a much steeper curve is related to Catholics marrying non-Catholics. There has been a lot of change over time in the share of interfaith weddings celebrated in the Church. From 1970 to 2001 the average percentage of weddings in parishes that were interfaith was 33%. From 2015 to 2022 this averaged 21%. In 1970 there were nearly 144,484 interfaith marriages celebrated in the Church compared to just over 21,697 in 2022. 

It's not just interfaith marriages in the Church that have declined in number. Total marriages overall in the Church are down as Catholics are increasingly choosing to marry outside the Church. Until the mid-1990s, about half of marriages involving Catholics were celebrated in the Church and the other half somewhere else—in another religious or secular setting (e.g., country clubs, beaches, banquet halls, hotels). From 2000 to 2022 this rose steadily to where three-quarters of marriages of Catholics occur outside of the Church.


 Creative Commons image courtesy of Nom & Malc Mustard Yellow Photography.


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