All of the presidential election results are yet to come in and Media Exit Polls may still be re weighted/calibrated to best represent the electorate. With that said, the direction of the Catholic vote in 2024 seems clear. It may also be a good prediction that no candidates will skip an invite to the Al Smith dinner in the future (Mondale in 1984 and Harris in 2024 chose not to attend). Silly notions of curses aside, it can't hurt.
Currently (as of 11/7/2024), the Media Exit Polls estimate that 58% of Catholic voters cast a ballot for Trump and 40% for Harris (2% voted for some other candidate). Historically, this would place the 2024 election alongside 1976, 1984, 1996, and 2008, when the Catholic vote was decidedly less evenly divided than in other years (Click here for the data table).
The 2024 election once again shows that the Catholic vote does not "look like America." Most Americans vote consistently for one party or the other given their religion. Catholics on the other hand are the one group that sways back and forth between the two party's candidates. It is arguable the most important religious swing vote (despite the media and pollsters' fascinations with Evangelicals).
Look for additional election analysis in the coming weeks. Also, click either graphic above to enlarge the view.
